美聯儲在4月會加息嗎？

Dan Moskowitz 2016年3月28日

美聯儲通常都是被動反應多餘提前準備。以前基於經濟數據，而現在是根據股票和債券市場的反應。在股票市場中，美聯儲在標準普爾500上漲時強硬而在下跌時溫和並不是巧合。你可以大致預測下一個聲明，這將對市場將如何反應提供有價值的信息。這也是引起市場諸多波動的原因。

那麼在4月下旬的聯邦公開市場委員會會議中會發生什麼呢？在回答這個問題之前，我們來關註下下面信息。

強硬勢頭

在公開市場委員會中總有反對聲音，但是強硬派的反對將建立勢頭。美聯儲副主席Stanley Fischer和克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行主席Loretta Mester是強硬派，現在這一陣容正在迅速擴大。包括：

Patrick Harker，舊金山聯儲主席；

John Williams，堪薩斯城聯儲主席；

Dennis Lockhart，亞特蘭大聯儲主席。

George在上次會議上想加息25個基點而其他人想讓美聯儲考慮在4月加息。美聯儲主席Janet Yellen已經表示雖然國内勞動力市場強勁，外來風險是不能加息過快的原因之一。這本身就很有趣，因為它表明美聯儲正在遠離其充分就業和2%通脹目標的使命。

反對者們反對溫和立場是因為他們更關註經濟的長期健康而不是近期資產的表現。如果美聯儲決定對實體經濟有效，那麼他們也沒有必要在超過6年多的時間保持溫和。這是一個超長期的寬松貨幣政策，引起許多企業和消費者高負債的情況。這些企業中的大多數缺乏營業收入。

許多投資者在過去6年中做的非常好。這是超長期低利率的積極影響。但是在此期間受困的人明顯多餘受益的人，其中工人因為公司看不到需求和分配更多資金派息被解雇。

總結

美聯儲確實在12月加息而沒有選擇3月。目前，有明確的強硬勢頭正在構建中，這將增加美聯儲在4月加息的幾率。然而，如果股票和債券市場在現在和那時表現不好，加息很可能不會出現。與其觀察整體就業和通脹，不如直接觀察市場的表現。如果市場表現良好，4月出現加息就不需要震驚。事實上，可能會出現這樣的情況。如果市場表現不好，美聯儲將不會採取行動並用樂觀的態度安撫擔憂。很難預測的是在現在和4月會議之間是否會出現橫向市場。對於這一點，大家只能猜測。

Will the Federal Reserve Hike Rates in April?

By Dan Moskowitz | Updated March 28, 2016

The Federal Reserve has typically been more reactive than proactive. Historically this has related to economic readings whereas now it relates to how stock and bond markets are behaving. In regards to the stock market, it’s no coincidence that the Federal Reserve has been more hawkish when the S&P 500moves higher and more dovish when it moves lower. You can essentially predict the next announcement with almost pinpoint accuracy, which could provide valuable information as to how the market will behave in reaction to that announcement. This, by the way, is what’s causing so much volatility in the market.

So what happens in late April the next time Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets? Before answering that question, we need to look at all the details.

Hawkish Momentum

There were always dissenters within the FOMC, but the hawkish rebellion is building momentum. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are hawkish and that list is quickly growing. It now includes the following: 

Patrick Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed

John Williams, President of the San Francisco Fed

Esther George, President of the Kansas City Fed

Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed

George wanted a 25 basis point hike at the last meeting and all the others want the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike in April. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has cited risks from abroad as one reason not to move too fast, despite a strong domestic labor market. This is interesting in itself because it indicates that the Fed is moving away from its dual mandate of full employment and 2% inflation. 

As far as the dissenters are concerned, they are opposed to the dovish stance and are likely more concerned with the long-term health of the economy than how assets perform in the near term. If the Fed’s actions were effective for the actual economy, then it wouldn’t have remained dovish for more than six years. This has been a prolonged period of highly accommodative monetary policy. It has created overleveraged situations for many corporations and consumers. The majority of those corporations lack top-line growth.

Millions of investors have done well over the past six years. This is the positive end impact of prolonged record-low interest rates. But have more people been harmed than helped, including workers who have been laid off because corporations don’t see demand and are allocating more capital to dividends and buybacks as opposed to growth? 

The Bottom Line

The Fed Reserve did hike rates in December but opted not to in March. Currently, there is definitely hawkish momentum building within the FOMC which increases the odds of a rate hike in April. However, there will likely be no rate hike in April if the stock and bond markets perform poorly between now and then. Instead of looking at full employment and inflation, just watch how the markets perform. If they perform well, don’t be shocked if there is a rate hike in April. Actually, it would be likely. If the markets perform poorly, the Federal Reserve will stand still and deliver optimistic language to soothe concerns. The one situation that’s difficult to predict is if there’s a sideways market between now and the April meeting. In this instance, it’s anyone’s guess. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/032516/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-april.asp