道瓊斯指數下行可能性有多大？

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, LCG

道瓊斯指數在2月28日突破歷史最高點21,170後下跌了3%，受到特朗普通脹的影響，道瓊斯指數在短短四個月內上漲了20%。

道瓊斯指數以有史以來最快的速度，從20,000點攀升到21,000點。技術指標顯示，這段期間內有大量的超買情況發生。

投資者們大力支援特朗普總統的昂貴財政計劃，其中包括稅務改革和基础設施費用。在2016年11月至2017年2月間，道瓊斯指數不斷刷新紀錄，直到二月底，股票投資者才逐漸冷靜。

各種經濟、政治因素導致道瓊斯指數在三月初出現停滯。首先，美聯儲在三月宣佈進行溫和的加息，重新調整了市場對特朗普財政支出的預期。其次，特朗普的競選承諾難以順利推行。削減稅費和支出的計劃沒有公佈更多的細節，引起了多方質疑，一些美股的長期股票投資者都保持觀望態度。

而道瓊斯指數在上一週出現了大量賣空，這是11月9日以來的最大跌幅。事實上，在美聯儲加息會議結束後的五天中，道瓊斯指數有四天是在下跌。

美股的下行修正會進一步加強。近來的回跌引發了很多質疑：特朗普通脹是否已經結束，美股是否會進一步下跌？

自特朗普上台後，道瓊斯指數首次跌至50日移動平均線 (20,490) 以下。

從技術觀點來開，市場存在進一步下行修正的可能性。

11月9日以來，14日RSI（強弱指數）首次跌至50以下，但市場距離超賣的情況還有很遠，至少要RSI跌至30以下才會發生。

常見的動量指標MACD（平滑異同移動平均線）已經跌至特朗普上台以來的最低水平。道瓊斯指數已準備好特朗普上台以來的首個熊市，這意味著賣空的動量會繼續增加。

下一個重要的技術水平是20,293點，23.6%的回撤幅度。如果跌破該點，可能會直沖20,000點。

從單纯的技術水平來講，即使跌至20,000點也不足以改變道瓊斯指數的中期趨勢。

特朗普牛市的主要支撐位是19,754.2點，回撤幅度為38.2%。只有跌破該點，道瓊斯指數才算正式進入熊市。

What is the downside potential for the Dow Jones?
 
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, LCG

The Dow Jones dropped more than 3% percent after hitting the historical high level of 21,170 on February 28th as a result of an unprecedented ‘reflation’ rally, that reflated the Dow Jones by more than 20% in four months only.
The Dow recorded the fastest 1,000 point rally in its history from 20,000 to 21,000. Technical indicators pointed at an overbought market during the major part of the rally period.

Investors have massively bought into the new US President Donald Trump’s expansive fiscal plans, including tax reforms and infrastructure spending. As the Dow Jones frequently renewed record from November 2016 to February 29017, traders often wondered whether the market has gone ahead of itself. Nevertheless, the momentum was very strong to let the stock buyers down until the end of February.

A combination of different economic and political factors caused price stagnation in the Down Jones since the beginning of March. First, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced what is called a ‘dovish’ rate hike at the March meeting, which basically readjusted the market expectations about Trump’s fiscal spending. Second, Donald Trump appeared to have hard time pushing through his campaign promises. The lack of details regarding the tax cuts and the spending program raised several questions and has apparently discouraged some investors from building further long positions in the US stock markets before more details would come in.

As such, the sell-off in the Dow Jones accelerated over the past week, when the index recorded its biggest fall since November 9th. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial index lost over four out of the five past trading sessions during the week following the Fed meeting.

The downside correction in the US stocks could intensify. The recent pullback raised several questions on whether the Trump-reflation rally is over and what is the potential of a further drop.

The Dow Jones retreated below the 50-day moving average (20,490) for the first time since Donald Trump’s election on November 9th.

From a technical point of view, there is potential for a deeper downside correction.

The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) stepped below the 50 level for the first time since November 9th, yet the market is still comfortably far from the ‘oversold’ conditions, which would imply the RSI slipping below the 30 level.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), which is a popular indicator of momentum, has deteriorated to the lowest levels since the Trump rally started on November 9th. The Dow Jones is preparing to step into the bearish territory for the first time since November, which suggests that the sell-off could pick-up further momentum.

The next important technical level is eyed at 20,293, the minor 23.6% retracement on November 9th to February 28th rally. Breaking this level would pave the way for the critical psychological level of 20,000.

From a purely technical perspective, even a pullback to 20,000 is not sufficient to tell that the Dow Jones has reversed the mid-term trend.

The major support to the post-Trump bullish trend stands at 19,754.2, the major 38.2% retracement. Only breaking this level, the Dow Jones would step in the bearish consolidation zone.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.leaprate.com/experts/ipek-ozkardeskaya/what-is-the-downside-potential-for-the-dow-jones/