波動性低可能會很危險

BobLang

作為市場參與者，我們常常試圖找出市場種種表現的背後成因。其中一些能用理性來解釋，另一些則不能，所以被稱為“市場之謎”。坦白來講，其實這一點都不神秘，僅僅是資金的流入和流出。但是我們的腦袋總是想要一個複雜的理由來解釋市場的變化，就像我們解決一個極難的謎題一樣。市場走勢忽上忽下便是困擾市場玩家的難題之一。

有一句老話是這樣說的：“VIX高揚快買入，VIX低迷趕緊跑。”在市場的恐懼不斷增長然後達到頂峰時，就閉上眼睛直接買入了。在過去的幾年中，我們見識過VIX上漲會帶來極其豐富的交易機會。

與之相反，VIX低迷意味著自我滿足且缺乏恐懼，這時候的交易者自信心爆棚且無所畏懼，相信股票會永遠上漲。但這是一步壞棋，因為一旦買入停止，你就無能為力，只好賣出，隨後就會出現修正。誰能預測每件事情會在何時發生呢？答案很簡單，沒有人。

因此，如果VIX收盤時下跌了10%，只能說明這個指標比較低，不是賣出的信號，而是大量買入的標志。如果VIX上漲了30%，甚至突破了13，說明股票市場有可能會下跌，漲幅2%的話也有可能。它可能發生在任何時間。如果VIX過低，說明選擇的成本很低。因此，為了更好地保護你的投資組合，應該考慮加入一些指數。我常用的指數有SPY，QQQ，IWM和DIA。提高防禦性的最佳買入時間是在你需要它之前，而不是災難發生之時。

Low Volatility Can Be Dangerous

As market participants we often look for reasons of market behavior.  Some are rational and explainable but others are not.  Call it the 'mystery of markets'.  Frankly, it really is no mystery at all, it is simply about money flows in and out.  Yet, our minds look for the most complex reasons for moves, as if we are trying to solve a difficult puzzle.  The rise and fall in volatility is one of those conditions that continues to confuse market players.

There is an old saying, 'When the VIX is high, it's time to buy - when the VIX is low it's time to go'.  Simply put when fear is rising and peaking it is time to close your eyes and just buy.  We have seen spikes in VIX become tremendous buying chances over the last several years. 

Conversely, a low VIX implies complacency and lack of fear - a bold ego that says I have nothing to worry about, stocks are going up always.  Often a bad move, because once the buying stops there is nothing left but sellers - then corrections ensue.  Who can predict the timing of these events everytime?  Answer is simple - nobody.

So today we have a VIX that closed around 10.4% on Jan 27.  That is low, but just because it is low is not a sell signal.  It is certainly indicative of 'buyer fever', and even if the VIX climbs 30% up to a level of 13 the stock market is likely to decline, perhaps around 2%.  It could happen anytime.  With a low VIX it means options are cheap - so protect your portfolio buy adding some at the money puts on the indices.  I use SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA - some of the most liquid names.  The time to buy protection is before you need it, not after a disaster strikes.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.traderplanet.com/articles/view/170571-low-volatility-can-be-dangerous/