Alan Farley 2016年9月29日
燭台圖是一種將多重時間框架數據集中到一個價格條的技術工具。這使得他們比傳統的開高收低價格條或者連接收盤價格點的簡單線條用處更大。燭台一旦形成就能構建預測價格方向的模式。這個適當的色彩編碼工具源自18世紀的日本大米交易員。
1991年，Steve Nison用他的暢銷書《日本燭台圖技術》將燭台圖模式帶到了西方。現在許多交易員能識別數十種燭台圖模式，它們的名字五花八門，例如烏雲蓋頂、黃昏之星和三只黑烏鴉。此外，包括十字線和錘子在内的單一價格模式已經被納入了幾十種買賣交易策略中。
燭台圖模式可靠性
不是所有的燭台圖模式都十分有效。他們的廣泛流行已經降低了其可靠性，因為他們已經被對沖基金和他們的算法解構。這些資金充足的參與者依賴快速執行與進行傳統技術分析的散戶投資者和基金做反向交易。換句話說，他們利用軟件為那些尋求高幾率上漲或者下跌結果的參與者設置陷阱。然而，可靠的模式還仍在起作用，允許你在長短期内獲利。
下面有五個在預測價格和動量時表現異常好的燭台圖模式。每個都能在當前價格條情況下預測價格的上漲或者下降。他們也在兩個方面對時間非常敏感。首先，他們僅在觀察的時間框架的圖表中有效，無論是日内、每日、週或者月圖。其次，他們的效力在模式形成後的3到5個價格條後迅速下降。
表現最好的五種燭台圖模式
這一分析基於Thomas Bulkowski的研究，他在其2008年的書《燭台圖百科全書》中為燭台圖模式表現分級。他提供了兩種預期模式的結果分析數據，分別是反轉和延續。燭台反轉模式預測價格走向的變化而延續模式預測當前的價格趨勢將延續。
在下列例子中，空心的白色燭台表示開始價格低於結束價格，而黑色燭台表示開始價格高於結束價格。
三線反擊
上揚三線反擊反轉模式在下跌趨勢中形成三個黑燭台。每個價格條都比上一個更低而且他們的結束點接近日内最低點。第四個價格條開始價格比第三個更低，但是經過大範圍的反轉結束價格略高於第一個價格條的開始價格。第四個價格條的開始價格也是其最低價格。Bulkowski認為，這一反轉的準確率高達84%
跳空雙陰線
下跌跳空雙陰險出現在顯著上揚趨勢的頂點之後。在一個下跌跳空之後出現兩個繼續下跌的價格條。這一模式預測下跌將持續到更低的低點，可能會引發更大規模的下跌趨勢。Bulkowski認為這一模式預測價格下跌的準確率高達68%。
三只黑烏鴉
下跌三只黑烏鴉反轉模式出現在上揚趨勢的高點或者附近處，三個價格條呈現出一個比一個低的趨勢。這一趨勢預測價格將繼續下跌到更低點，可能引發更大規模的下跌。最壞的下跌版本是該模式出現在新的高點上，因為它會誘使買家進行動量交易。Bulkowski認為這一模式預測價格下跌的準確率高達78%。
黃昏之星
下跌黃昏之星反轉模式從一個到達新高點的陽線開始。下一個價格條跳空到更高點但是未能吸引新的買家，形成一個短小的燭台。一個下跌跳空的陰線完成這一模式，預示價格將跌到更低點，可能會引發更大規模的下跌。Bulkowski認為這一模式預測價格下跌的準確率高達72%。
棄嬰形態
上揚棄嬰形態反轉模式出現在下跌趨勢的低點中，之前會有多個陰線。市場跳空到更低價格但是未能出現新的賣家，形成一個開始和結束價格相同的十字線。第三個上揚跳空價格條完成這一模式，預示著價格將上漲到更高價格，可能引發更大規模的上漲趨勢。Bulkowsk認為這一模式預測價格上漲的準確率高達70%。
總結
燭台圖模式吸引了許多市場參與者的註意，但是在當代電子環境中，這些模式形成的許多反轉和延續信號都不太可靠。幸運的是，Bulkowski的統計表明這些稀有模式通常是準確的，提供了可交易的買賣信號。
The 5 Most Powerful Candlestick Patterns (NUAN, GMCR)
By Alan Farley | Updated September 29, 2016 — 9:07 AM EDT
Candlestick charts are a technical tool that pack data for multiple timeframes into single price bars. This makes them more useful than traditional open-high, low-close bars (OHLC) or simple lines that connect the dots of closing prices. Candlesticks build patterns that predict price direction once completed. Proper color coding adds depth to this colorful technical tool, which dates back to 18th century Japanese rice traders.
Steve Nison brought candlestick patterns to the Western world in his popular 1991 book, "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques." Many traders can now identify dozens of these formations, which have colorful names like bearish dark cloud cover, evening star and three black crows. In addition, single bar patterns including the doji and hammer have been incorporated into dozens of long- and short-side trading strategies.
Candlestick Pattern Reliability
Not all candlestick patterns work equally well. Their huge popularity has lowered reliability because they’ve been deconstructed by hedge funds and their algorithms. These well-funded players rely on lightning speed execution to trade against retail and traditional fund managers who execute technical analysis strategies found in popular texts. In other words, they use software to trap participants looking for the high odds bullish or bearish outcomes. However, reliable patterns continue to appear, allowing short- and long-term profit opportunities.
Here are five candlestick patterns that perform exceptionally well as precursors of price direction and momentum. Each works within the context of surrounding price bars in predicting higher or lower prices. They are also time sensitive in two ways. First, they only work within the limitations of the chart being reviewed, whether intraday, daily, weekly or monthly. Second, their potency decreases rapidly 3-to-5 bars after the pattern has completed.
Top 5 Candlestick Patterns
This analysis relies on the work of Thomas Bulkowski, who built performance rankings for candlestick patterns in his 2008 book, "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts." He offers statistics for two kinds of expected pattern outcomes: reversal and continuation. Candlestick reversal patterns predict a change in price direction while continuation patterns predict an extension in the current price direction.
In the following examples, the hollow white candlestick denotes a closing print higher than the opening print while the black candlestick denotes a closing print lower than the opening print.
Three Line Strike
The bullish three line strike reversal pattern carves out three black candles within a downtrend. Each bar posts a lower low and closes near the intrabar low. The fourth bar opens even lower but reverses in a wide-range outside bar that closes above the high of the first candle in the series. The opening print also marks the low of the fourth bar. According toBulkowski, this reversal predicts higher prices with an 84% accuracy rate.
TwoBlack Gapping
The bearish two black gapping continuation pattern appears after anotable top in an uptrend, with a gap down that yields two black bars posting lower lows. This pattern predicts the decline will continue to even lower lows, perhaps triggering a broader scale downtrend. According toBulkowski, this pattern predicts lower prices with a 68% accuracy rate.
Three Black Crows
The bearish three black crows reversal pattern starts at or near the high of an uptrend, with three black bars posting lower lows that close near intrabar lows. This pattern predicts the decline will continue to even lower lows, perhaps triggering a broader scale downtrend. The most bearish version starts at a new high (A) because it traps buyers entering momentum plays. According toBulkowski, this pattern predicts lower prices with a 78% accuracy rate.
Evening Star
The bearish evening star reversal pattern starts with a tall white bar that carries an uptrend to a new high. The market gaps higher on the next bar but fresh buyers fail to appear, yielding a narrow range candlestick. A gap down on the third bar completes the pattern, which predicts the decline will continue to even lower lows, perhaps triggering a broader scale downtrend. According toBulkowski, this pattern predicts lower prices with a 72% accuracy rate.
Abandoned Baby
The bullish abandoned baby reversal pattern appears at the low of a downtrend, after a series of black candles print lower lows. The market gaps lower on the next bar but fresh sellers fail to appear, yielding a narrow range doji candlestick with opening and closing prints at the same price. A bullish gap on the third bar completes the pattern, which predicts the recovery will continue to even higher highs, perhaps triggering a broader scale uptrend. According toBulkowski, this pattern predicts higher prices with a 70% accuracy rate.
The Bottom Line
Candlestick patterns capture the attention of market players but many reversal and continuation signals emitted by these patterns don’t work reliably on the modern electronic environment. Fortunately, statistics by ThomasBulkowski show unusual accuracy for a narrow selection of these patterns, offering tradersactionable buy and sell signals.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/092315/5-most-powerful-candlestick-patterns.asp