Cory Mitchell
趨勢使交易員和投資者獲利。無論時間框架長短，在一個整體的趨勢市場或者區間環境中的價格運動都能產生獲利或者虧損。下面有四個引起長短期波動的主要因素。這些因素是政府、國際交易、投機和預期和供求關系。
主要市場力量
了解這些因素如何在長期中形成趨勢將使你能預見趨勢如何發展，一個趨勢為什麼產生和未來趨勢將如何產生。下面是四個主要因素：
1.政府
政府在自由市場中占有舉足輕重的地位。財政和金融政策對金融市場有巨大的影響。通過增加和降低利率政府可以有效的減慢或者加速國家經濟的增長速度。這被稱為貨幣政策。
如果政府支出增加或者縮減，這被稱為財政政策，可以被用來緩解失業或者穩定物價。通過改變利率和公開市場上的資金數量，政府可以改變進出國家投資資金的數量。
2.國際交易
國家之間的資金流動影響一個國家經濟和貨幣的強弱。流出一個國家的資金越多，該國的經濟和貨幣越弱。出口占主導地位的國家，無論出口的是商品還是服務都會使資金持續流入該國。這些資金可以被重新投資並刺激國内金融市場發展。
3.投機和期望
投機和期望是金融系統不可或缺的部分。消費者、投資者和政客對未來經濟的預期將會影響我們當前的表現。對未來價格表現的預期依靠當前表現以及當前和未來趨勢的形態。這些指標的分析家以及其他基本面和技術分析人員可以創造一個未來價格和趨勢方向的預期。
4.供求關系
產品、貨幣和其他的投資的供求關系創造一個推動式價格運動。價格和利率隨著供求關系變化。如果某些商品的需求不變而供應減少，那麼價格就會上升。如果供應超過當前需求，價格就會下降。如果供應相對穩定，價格就會隨著需求的變化而波動。
對長短期趨勢的影響
這些因素都會引起市場中的長期和短期波動，了解這些因素如何共同創造趨勢非常重要。雖然這些主要因素有明確差異，但是他們互相之間緊密相關。政府指令影響國際交易，國家交易在投機中占重要地位，供求關系對這些因素都會產生影響。
政府新聞發佈，例如計劃修改支出和稅務政策的新聞，以及央行修改或者維持利率的決定都會對長期趨勢產生巨大影響。低利率和稅率鼓勵消費和經濟增長。這將使市場價格增高，但是市場不總是產生這樣的回應，因為其他因素也在產生影響。例如，如果利率和稅率上升，但是控制支出將會導致市場價格的長期下降。
國際影響
國際交易，國家間收支差額和經濟強度很難以每天為基礎判斷，但是他們在許多市場的長期趨勢中起重要作用。貨幣市場根據一個國家的貨幣和經濟相對其他國家的表現。對一種貨幣的高需求意味著該貨幣將相對其他貨幣升值。
在短期内，這些新聞引起交易者和投資者買賣將會引起大規模的價格波動。這些新聞引起的行為將會創造短期趨勢，而長期趨勢隨著投資者全面把握這些信息對市場影響展開。
一種貨幣的價值也將對這個國家的其他市場產生影響。如果一個國家的貨幣疲軟，將會阻礙資金流向該國，因為潛在利潤將可能被疲軟貨幣削減。
參與者的影響
交易者和投資者根據收到的政府政策和國家交易對價格影響的信息進行的分析和買賣。如果有足夠多的人認同這一方向，市場將進入趨勢並維持很多年。
趨勢也被那些分析錯誤的市場參與者接受，使他們被迫退出當前虧損交易並進一步推動當前趨勢方向。隨著更多投資者跟隨趨勢獲利，市場將進入飽和並進行趨勢逆轉。
供求關系影響
這時供求關系將會進入視野。供求關系對個人、企業和金融市場都會產生影響。在一些市場，例如大宗商品市場，供應由實物產品的產量決定。石油的供應和需求持續變化，調整市場參與者願意在現在和未來購買石油的價格。隨著供應減少或者需求增加，石油價格的長期上漲可能會發生，因為市場參與者出價一個高過一個以獲取看似有限的產品供應。供應商想要他們的產品獲取更高的價格，更大的需求使買家願意支付更高的價格購買商品。
所有市場都有一個類似的動態結構。股票在短期和長期範圍波動產生趨勢。供應枯竭的威脅提高當前價格使買家以越來越高的價格購買，引起價格大幅度上漲。如果一大群賣家想進入市場，這將增加股票的供應並很可能引起價格降低。這在任何時間框架中都會發生。
總結
趨勢通常由政府、國際交易、投機和期望以及供求關系等四個主要因素引起。這些都與預期未來環境的決定和形成當前趨勢的當前決定相關。政府主要通過貨幣和財政政策影響趨勢。這些政策影響國際交易進而影響經濟強度。投機和預期根據未來價格的可能驅動價格。最後供求關系的變化隨著市場參與者争取最好的價格創造趨勢。
4 Factors That Shape Market Trends
By Cory Mitchell
Trends are what allow traders and investors to capture profits. Whether on a short- or long-term time frame, in an overall trending market or a ranging environment, the flow from one price to another is what creates profits and losses. There are four major factors that cause both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. These factors are governments, international transactions, speculation and expectation, and supply and demand.
Major Market Forces
Learning how these major factors shape trends over the long term can provide insight into why certain trends are developing, why a trend is in place and how future trends may occur. Here are the four major factors:
1.Governments
Governments hold much sway over the free markets. Fiscal and monetary policy have a profound effect on the financial marketplace. By increasing and decreasing interest rates the government and Federal Reserve can effectively slow or attempt to speed up growth within the country. This is called monetary policy.
If government spending increases or contracts, this is known as fiscal policy, and can be used to help ease unemployment and/or stabilize prices. By altering interest rates and the amount of dollars available on the open market, governments can change how much investment flows into and out of the country.
2.International Transactions
The flow of funds between countries impacts the strength of a country's economy and its currency. The more money that is leaving a country, the weaker the country's economy and currency. Countries that predominantly export, whether physical goods or services, are continually bringing money into their countries. This money can then be reinvested and can stimulate the financial markets within those countries.
3.Speculation and Expectation
Speculation and expectation are integral parts of the financial system. Where consumers, investors and politicians believe the economy will go in the future impacts how we act today. Expectation of future action is dependent on current acts and shapes both current and future trends. Sentiment indicators are commonly used to gauge how certain groups are feeling about the current economy. Analysis of these indicators as well as other forms of fundamental and technical analysis can create a bias or expectation of future price rates and trend direction.
4. Supply and Demand
Supply and demand for products, currencies and other investments creates a push-pull dynamic in prices. Prices and rates change as supply or demand changes. If something is in demand and supply begins to shrink, prices will rise. If supply increases beyond current demand, prices will fall. If supply is relatively stable, prices can fluctuate higher and lower as demand increases or decreases.
Effect on Short- and Long-Term Trends
With these factors causing both short- and long-term fluctuations in the market, it is important to understand how all these elements come together to create trends. While these major factors are categorically different, they are closely linked to one another. Government mandates impact international transactions, which play a role in speculation, and supply and demand plays a role in each of these other factors.
Government news releases, such as proposed changes in spending or tax policy, as well as Federal Reserve decisions to change or maintain interest rates can have a dramatic effect on long term trends. Lower interest rates and taxes encourage spending and economic growth. This has a tendency to push market prices higher, but the market does not always respond in this way because other factors are also at play. Higher interest rates and taxes, for example, deter spending and result in contraction or a long-term fall in market prices.
In the short term, these news releases can cause large price swings as traders and investors buy and sell in response to the information. Increased action around these announcements can create short-term trends, while longer term trends develop as investors fully grasp and absorb what the impact of the information means for the markets.
The International Effect
International transactions, balance of payments between countries and economic strength are harder to gauge on a daily basis, but they play a major role in longer-term trends in many markets. The currency markets are a gauge of how well one country's currency and economy is doing relative to others. A high demand for a currency means that currency will rise relative to other currencies.
The value of a country's currency also plays a role in how other markets will do within that country. If a country's currency is weak, this will deter investment into that country, as potential profits will be eroded by the weak currency.
The Participant Effect
The analysis and resultant positions taken by traders and investors based on the information they receive about government policy and international transactions create speculation as to where prices will move. When enough people agree on direction, the market enters into a trend that could sustain itself for many years.
Trends are also perpetuated by market participants who were wrong in their analysis; being forced to exit their losing trades pushes prices further in the current direction. As more investors climb aboard to profit from a trend, the market becomes saturated and the trend reverses, at least temporarily.
The S & D Effect
This is where supply and demand enters the picture. Supply and demand affects individuals, companies and the financial markets as a whole. In some markets, such as the commodity markets, supply is determined by a physical product. Supply and demand for oil is constantly changing, adjusting the price a market participant is willing to pay for oil today and in the future.
As supply dwindles or demand increases, a long-term rise in oil prices can occur as market participants outbid one another to attain a seemingly finite supply of the commodity. Suppliers want a higher price for what they have, and a higher demand pushes the price that buyers are willing to pay higher.
All markets have a similar dynamic. Stocks fluctuate on a short and long-term scale, creating trends. The threat of supply drying up at current prices forces buyers to buy at higher and higher prices, creating large price increases. If a large group of sellers were to enter the market, this would increase the supply of stock available and would likely push prices lower. This occurs on all time frames.
The Bottom Line
Trends are generally created by four major factors: governments, international transactions, speculation/expectation, and supply and demand. These areas are all linked as expected future conditions shape current decisions and those current decisions shape current trends. Government affects trends mainly through monetary and fiscal policy. These policies affect international transactions which in turn affect economic strength. Speculation and expectation drive prices based on what future prices might be. Finally, changes in supply and demand create trends as market participants fight for the best price.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trend.asp