Jean Folger 2016年1月13日
黃金是公元前2000年左右古埃及人率先冶煉出來的。一千多年之後，古美索不達亞金匠制作出了精巧的青金、瑪瑙頭飾品和葉形黃金吊墜。從那時開始，人類就開始對黃金著迷，對黃金的迫切渴望引發了許多淘金潮和戰争。西班牙國王費南迪在1511年曾經說過：“如果可能，那麼就人道地獲取黃金，但是最重要的是獲取黃金。”
現在，人們獲取黃金不僅僅是因為投資和珠寶市場的需要，同時也用於一些電子和醫療設備的生產。黃金在2011年3月的價格以1420美元每盎司創下新高。是什麼驅動這種稀有金屬的價格呢？
央行儲備
央行把持有紙幣和黃金作為儲備。世界黃金協會表示央行們現在買入的黃金多於賣出，這是十多年來的第一次。隨著央行們開始多樣化其外匯儲備（把紙幣換成黃金），黃金價格開始上升。世界上許多國家的貨幣儲備主要是黃金，其中包括美國、德國、意大利、葡萄牙、希臘和歐洲地區。
美元價值
黃金價格通常和美元價值成反比關系，美元價值升高通常使黃金價格降低，美元疲軟會導致黃金價格上升。這是因為人們有在美元價值上升時投資和交易美元的趨勢。然而在美元疲軟的經濟不穩定時期，人們更傾向於通過黃金基金和實物投資黃金。
世界範圍的珠寶和工業需求
根據世界黃金協會和倫敦金銀市場協會的數據，2010年珠寶占黃金總需求量的54%。印度、中國和美國是最大黃金珠寶消費市場。中國的黃金需求在2011年前兩個月為200噸，比前些年有大幅度增長。黃金需求的另外12%用於醫療和工業用途，被用於生產醫療設備和電子儀器。黃金價格可以被基本的供求理論影響，消費商品例如珠寶和電子產品需求增加，黃金價格就會上漲。
財產保護
在經濟不穩定時期，人們因為黃金的持久價值會投資黃金。黃金被認為是經濟不穩定時期的避險手段。如果債券、股票和房地產的實際收益下降，人們投資黃金的興趣就會增加，使黃金價格上漲。黃金可以用來作為貨幣貶值、通漲和通縮的一個對沖。此外，黃金還被認為能在政治不穩定中提供保護作用，正如在當前的中東和北非動蕩中看到的，這些動蕩可能是最近黃金價格上升的部分原因。
黃金產量
世界上主要的黃金產地包括中國、南非、美國、澳大利亞、俄羅斯和秘魯。世界黃金產量影響黃金價格，這是供求理論的另一個證明。隨著一些新的大型金礦開始投入使用，黃金產量在2010年增加3%達到2652噸。如果忽略這一增長，金礦產量在21世紀開始後是下降的。一個原因是容易開採的黃金已經採完，現在需要挖掘更深才能開採到合格的黃金礦藏。黃金開採越來越苦難引起了其他問題，開採工人將面臨更多的危險並且對環境的影響也會增加。簡而言之，就是投入變得多了但是產量在減少。這導致黃金開採成本的增加，最終導致黃金價格的上升。
總結
我們長久以來一直迷戀黃金，而且未來不會改變。最近的經濟危機引起了一個當代的淘金熱。探索頻道的淘金熱節目展示了一個沒有經驗的礦工團隊希望在阿拉斯加僻遠地區淘金致富的過程，引起超過400萬週五晚上觀衆的興趣。美國淘金協會是一個迎合自主礦工的組織，在2008年黃金投資者增加之後其會員幾乎增加了一倍。黃金需求、央行們儲備黃金的數量、美元價值和持有黃金對沖通漲和貨幣貶值的渴望都幫助推動黃金這個世界上最珍貴金屬的價格。
What Drives The Price Of Gold?
By Jean Folger | Updated January 13, 2016
The ancient Egyptians performed the first smelting of gold circa 3,600 BC. A thousand years later, gold jewelry appeared as the goldsmiths of ancient Mesopotamia crafted a burial headdress made of lapis, carnelian beads and leaf-shaped gold pendants. Since these early days, mankind has been fascinated by gold, and the desire to own it has led to great gold rushes and to wars: King Ferdinand of Spain declared in 1511, "Get gold, humanely if you can, but at all hazards, get gold!"
Today, gold is sought after not only for investment purposes and a strong jewelry market, but it is also used in the manufacturing of certain electronic and medical devices. Gold (as of March, 2011) was around $1,420 per ounce and making record highs. What factors drive the price of this precious metal?
Central Bank Reserves
Central banks hold paper currencies and gold in reserve. The World Gold Council has stated that central banks have recently begun buying more gold than they are selling, the first time this has happened in decades. As the central banks diversify their monetary reserves - away from the paper currencies they've accumulated and into gold - the price of gold rises. Many of the world's nations have reserves that are composed primarily of gold, including the United States, Germany, Italy, France, Portugal, Greece and the Euro area.
Value of the U.S. Dollar
The price of gold is generally inversely related to the value of the United States dollar: a stronger U.S. dollar tends to keep the price of gold lower and more controlled; a weaker U.S. dollar is likely to drive the price of gold higher. This is because people have a tendency to invest and trade in dollars when the dollar is strong. During times of economic uncertainty and when the dollar is weak, however, people prefer to invest in gold, through vehicles such as gold funds or coins.
Worldwide Jewelry and Industrial Demand
In 2010, jewelry accounted for approximately 54% percent of gold demand, which totaled 3,812 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council and The London Bullion Market Association. India, China and the United States are the largest consumers of gold for jewelry in terms of volume. Consumer demand in China, for example, for the first two months of 2011 reached 200 tonnes - a huge increase over the previous year, which took 10 months to reach 209 tonnes. Another 12% of demand is attributed to medical and industrial uses for gold, where it is used in the manufacturing of medical devices like stents and precision electronics like GPS units. Gold prices can be affected by the basic theory of supply and demand: as demand for consumer goods such as jewelry and electronics increase, the cost of gold can rise.
Wealth Protection
During times of economic uncertainty, as seen during the recession of the late 2000s, more people turn to investing in gold because of its enduring value. Gold is often considered a "safe haven" for investors during uncertain times. When the expected or actual returns on bonds, equities and real estate fall, the interest in gold investing increases, driving up its price. Gold can be used as a hedge against currency devaluation, inflation or deflation. In addition, gold is viewed as providing protection from political instability, as evidenced by the recent unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which may be partly responsible for gold's recent rally to new highs.
Gold Production
Major players in worldwide gold mining include China, South Africa, the United States, Australia, the Russian Federation and Peru. The world's gold production affects the price of gold, another example of supply and demand. Gold mine production increased by about three percent in 2010 to about 2,652 tonnes, according to GFMS as several new large-scale mines began operations. Despite this small increase, however, gold mine production has been in a decline since the early 2000s. One factor is that all the "easy gold" has already been mined; miners now have to dig deeper to access quality gold reserves. The fact that gold is more challenging to access raises additional problems: the miners are exposed to additional hazards, and the environmental impact is heightened. In short, it costs more to get less gold. These add to the costs of gold mine production, resulting in rising gold prices.
The Bottom Line
We have long been, and will likely continue to be, enamored by gold. The recent recession has stirred a modern day gold rush. Discovery Channel's Gold Rush: Alaska, a reality show about a team of inexperienced miners hoping to strike it rich in Alaska's backcountry, brought in more than 4 million Friday-night viewers. The Gold Prospectors Association of America, a group that caters to recreational miners, saw membership nearly double in 2008 as the gold bug spreads. The demand for gold, the amount of gold in the central banks' reserves, the value of the U.S. dollar and the desire to hold gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, all help drive the price of gold, one of the world's precious metals.