Alan Farley 2016年1月1日
日内交易員需要對短期價格運動做出持續反應以便快速做出買賣決定。帶有多個移動平均線的盤中價格條能為他們提供幫助，使他們能快速分析當前風險和最有利的進出點。這些平均線也能作為宏觀過濾器使用，告訴有經驗的觀察者靜觀其變的時機並等待更好的條件出現。
選擇正確的移動平均線能為所有以技術為基礎的日内交易策略增加可靠性，而簡陋或者不正確的設置則影響盈利。大部分情況下，所有時間週期的設置相同，使交易員能僅僅根據圖表週期做出需要的調整。
鑒於這個特性，一組相同的移動平均線設定將會適用於剝頭皮同時也會適用於早上買入晚上賣出。交易員僅僅根據圖表長度改變持有時間，剝頭皮交易員關註一分鐘圖表，而傳統的日内交易員觀察分鐘和十五分鐘圖表。這一過程甚至延伸到隔夜持倉，使波段交易員把這些移動平均線運用到六十分鐘圖表上。
5-8-13移動平均線
5、8、13簡單移動平均線的組合非常適合日内交易員。這一設定表現非常良好，但是理解時需要適當的設定。這是一個視覺化過程，檢查移動平均線與價格的相對關系，而移動平均線的坡度則反映短期動量的微妙變化。
觀察到動量上升為交易員提供買入機會，動量降低則表示要及時退出。在多種時間框架中的引發移動平均線向下的動量減小將提供做空機會，當移動平均線向上時平倉。這一方法也適用橫向市場，告訴交易員機會有限等待時機。
兩個交易案例
5-8-13 移動平均線在做多交易中的使用
蘋果股價在五分鐘圖表上的105美元時（A點）形成了一個基底模式並在中午（B點）形成了一個短期上揚。隨著5-8-13 短期移動平均線距離的增加，他們指向更高之處，意味著上揚動量的增加。價格在移動平均線之上進入多頭區間，為日内交易提供非常好的獲利機會。
上揚在12點之後停止，價格跌到與8條移動平均線交叉（C點），而5條移動移動平均線拉回並在同一水平找到支撐（D點）。積極的日内交易員可以在穿過5條移動平均線時獲利或者等待移動平均線在下午變平和轉向（E點）獲利。兩個水平都提供獲利的出場點。
Using 5-8-13 in a Short Sale
5-8-13移動平均線在短期做空中的使用
蘋果股價在收盤時位於109美元（A點）並在第二天早上（B點）開始下跌。隨著距離的增加5-8-13移動平均線指向更低之處，表明做空動量的增加。價格在移動平均線之下進入做空區間，提供良好的短期做空獲利機會。
做空在上午停止，價格提升到13條移動平均線之上，而5條移動平均線在同一水平找到阻力。積極的日内交易員可以在價格提升到5條移動平均線之上時或者等待移動平均線在下午平緩並上升時（E點）獲利。兩個水平都提供獲利的出場點。
耐心等待的信號
價格和移動平均線之間的關系也發出機會不佳資本應當保留的信號。市場走勢不明和高波動將迫使5-8-13移動平均線進入大規模的拉鋸，水平定向和頻繁的交叉告訴有經驗的交易員繼續等待。
成交價格幅度在波動劇烈的市場擴大並在走勢不明的市場縮小。在這兩種情況中，移動平均線展現出相同特性並警告交易員謹慎交易。這些特性應該被牢記並在短期交易策略中過濾掉，因為他們將對交易損益表有極大的影響。
避免假突破
在一點範圍内反複折回。5-8-13移動平均線顯示出相同的假突破，這時的交叉很多，但是隊列很少。這些高幹擾警告有經驗的交易停止交易並轉向其他的股票。
總結
5-8-13簡單移動平均線為日内交易員提供完美的長短期獲利交易入場點。這些移動平均線還能當過濾器使用，告訴聰明的交易員什麼時候日内交易風險太大。
The Perfect Moving Averages For Day Trading
By Alan Farley | January 01, 2016
Day traders need continuous feedback on short-term price action to make lightning fast buy and sell decisions. Intraday bars wrapped in multiple moving averages serve this purpose, allowing quick analysis that highlights current risks as well as the most advantageous entries and exits. These averages work as macro filters as well, telling the observant trader the best times to stand aside and wait for more favorable conditions.
Choosing the right moving averages adds reliability to all technically-based day trading strategies, while poor or misaligned settings undermine otherwise profitable approaches. In most cases, identical settings will work in all short-term time frames, allowing the trader to make needed adjustments through the chart’s length alone.
Given this uniformity, an identical set of moving averages will work for scalping techniques as well as for buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon. The trader reacts to different holding periods using the charting length alone, with scalpers focusing on 1-minute charts, while traditional day traders examine 5-minute and 15-minute charts. This process even extends into overnight holds, allowing swing traders to use those averages on a 60-minute chart.
5-8-13 Moving Averages
The combination of 5-, 8- and 13-bar simple moving averages (SMAs) offers a perfect fit for day trading strategies. These are Fibonacci-tuned settings that stand the test of time, but interpretive skills are required to use the settings appropriately. It’s a visual process, examining relative relationships between moving averages and price, as well as MA slopes that reflect subtle shifts in short-term momentum.
Increases in observed momentum offer buying opportunities for day traders, while decreases signal timely exits. Decreases that trigger bearish moving average rollovers in multiple time frames offer sell short opportunities, with profitable sales covered when moving averages start to turn higher. The process also identifies sideways markets, telling the day trader to stand aside when intraday trending is weak and opportunities are limited.
Two Trading Examples
Using 5-8-13 in a Long Trade
Apple (AAPL) builds a basing pattern above 105 (A) on the 5-minute chart and breaks out in a short-term rally over the lunch hour (B). 5-, 8- and 13-bar SMAs point to higher ground while the distance between moving averages increases, signaling rising rally momentum. Price moves into bullish alignment on top of the moving averages, ahead of a 1.40 point swing that offers good day trading profits.
The rally stalls after 12 pm, dropping price back to the 8-bar SMA (C), while the 5-bar SMA pulls back and finds support at the same level (D), ahead of a final rally thrust. Aggressive day traders can take profits when price cuts through the 5-bar SMA or wait moving averages to flatten out and roll over (E), which they did in the mid-afternoon session. Both price levels offer beneficial exits.
AAPL consolidates near 109 at the end of a session (A) and ticks lower the next morning (B). 5-, 8- and 13-bar SMAs point to lower ground while the distance between moving averages increases, signaling rising selloff momentum. Price moves into bearish alignment on the bottom of the moving averages, ahead of a 3-point swing that offers good short sale profits.
The selloff stalls mid-morning, lifting price into the 13-bar SMA (C) while the 5-bar SMA bounces until it meets resistance at the same level (D), ahead of a final selloff thrust. Aggressive day traders can take short sale profits while price lifts above the 5-bar SMA or wait for moving averages to flatten out and turn higher (E), which they did in the mid-afternoon. Both price levels offer beneficial short sale exits.
Signals to Stand Aside
Interrelationships between price and moving averages also signal periods of adverse opportunity-cost when speculative capital should be preserved. Trendless markets and periods of high volatility will force 5-, 8- and 13-bar SMAs into large scale whipsaws, with horizontal orientation and frequent crossovers telling observant traders to sit on their hands.
Trading ranges expand in volatile markets and contract in trendless markets. In both cases, moving averages will show similar characteristics that advise caution with day trading positions. These defensive attributes should be committed to memory and utilized as an overriding filter for short-term strategies because they have an outsized impact on the profit and loss statement.
Avoiding Whipsaws
AAPL bobs and weaves through an afternoon session in a choppy and volatile pattern, with price whipping back and forth in a 1-point range. 5-, 8- and 13-bar SMAs shows similar whipsaws, with multiple crossovers but little alignment between moving averages. These high noise levels warn the observant day trader to pull up stakes and move on to another security.
The Bottom Line
5-, 8- and 13-bar simple moving averages offer perfect inputs for day traders seeking quick profits on the long and short sides. The moving averages also work well as filters, telling fast-fingered market players when risk is too high for intraday entries.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/010116/perfect-moving-averages-day-trading.asp