標準普爾將達到550點？華爾街最大的空頭投資人的觀點是什麼？

 Dan Moskowitz  2016年1月23日

法國興業銀行全球戰略分析師和著名空頭投資人Albert Edwards對經濟的擔心有許多原因，但是最大的憂慮是自2009年以來市場對美聯儲的嚴重依賴。

他相信量化寬鬆政策提高了資產價格，導致了大宗商品泡沫和虛擬繁榮並對新興市場增長產生說明。他認為全球經濟離開美聯儲的支援不能獨立。

談到中國，他描繪出了一個可以擴散的邏輯模式。在他看來，人民幣現在價值是被高估的，這使中國政府處於騎虎難下的境地。如果人民幣維持被高估的現狀，將會阻礙經濟增長。如果人民幣貶值以刺激經濟增長，將會導致資本外流。為了維持市場份額，中國制造商不得不降價。當制造商降價，就是通貨緊縮。

Edwards近期做出了另外一個評論：“在這種進口緊縮自救中西方制造商將會受到抑制。”

盡管制造業僅占美國GDP的約12%，Edwards相信通貨緊縮危機將會蔓延到服務業。

Edwards認為將會出現一個衰退，導致美聯儲再次嘗試挽回形勢，而這次將不會有良好效果。根據Edwards預測的模式，他認為標準普爾500將會跌到550點。在這篇文章發佈時，也就是2016年1月23日，標準普爾500在1925點交易。如果Edwards是正確的，這次危機將會比互聯網危機和金融危機更加嚴重，這將成為“這代人遇到的最大經濟崩潰”。

市場時機

如果我們全部知道如何判斷市場時機，那麼我們全部成為富豪。做多主義者相信市場將會出現一個修正而且經濟正處於一個緩慢恢復模式中。做空主義者認為市場增長緩慢而且帶有債務水平處於歷史最高階段、不計後果的借貸和謹慎消費的特點。

例如，根據基本面和變化消費以及行業趨勢已經選擇正確投資的做多主義者能在長期階段賺錢，即使股票市場崩盤。這對使用平均成本方法的投資者更加適用。如果一家公司已經支付股息幾十年，將會增加一個積極因素。

在做空上，大規模反彈將會使人沮喪，但是如果做空正確，他們知道牛市需要幾年才能建立，而摧毀它們只需要幾個月（有時幾週）。換句話說，在市場反彈中的所有損失都有被未來收益抵消的可能。

總結

Edwards的觀點是對的嗎？不幸的是，他可能是對的。當一個前所為的老齡化和謹慎消費的經濟環境中的過剩生產力必須解除和高額債務必須減少時，這不可能是我們所說的樂觀情況。像往常一樣，你應該做好自己的調查形成自己的結論並考慮向一個財務顧問咨詢。

S&P at 550? What Wall Street's Biggest Bear Believes 

By Dan Moskowitz | February 23, 2016 

Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale and well-known perma-bear, is concerned about the economy for many reasons, but his biggest concern appears to be the market relying heavily on the Federal Reserve since 2009.

He believes that QE is what helped prop up asset prices, led to the commodity bubble and shale boom, and aided emerging market growth. He doesn’t think that the global economy can stand on its own two feet, as in without Federal Reserve assistance.

Moving over to China, he maps out a logical pattern that could lead to contagion. In his opinion, the Chinese Yuan is overvalued, which creates a dilemma for the Chinese government. If the Chinese Yuan remains overvalued, then it will stifle economic growth. If the Chinese Yuan is devalued in order to stimulate economic growth, then it will move capital out of the Chinese economy. In order to maintain market share, Chinese manufacturers will have to cut prices. When manufacturers cut prices, it’s deflationary.

Edwards recently made another comment: “The Western manufacturing sector will choke under this imported deflationary tourniquet.”

Despite manufacturing only representing approximately 12% of U.S. GDP, Edwards believes that deflationary contagion will spread to the services industry.

According to Edwards, there will be a recession, which will lead to the Federal Reserve attempting to save the day once again, only this time there won’t be enough impactful ammo. Based on the pattern Edwards expects, he’s calling for the S&P 500 to fall as low as 550. At the time of this writing — intraday Feb. 23, 2016 — the S&P 500 is trading at 1,925. If Edwards is correct, this crash would be worse than the Tech Bubble and the Financial Crisis, which is why he refers to it as “the biggest crash in a generation.”

Market Timing

If we all knew how to time the market, then we would all be rich. The longs believe there was a recent market correction and that the economy is in slow-growth recovery mode. The shorts believe that the economy is slowing while featuring record debt levels, reckless lending practices, and a cautious consumer. Nobody can say with absolute certainty that they’re correct. The best you can do is research to find out the most logical answers. And, believe it or not, longs and shorts could both still win.

For example, longs that have chosen the right investments based on fundamentals and changing consumer and industry trends should still make money over the long haul — even if the stock market crashes. This is more likely to be true for the investor taking a dollar-cost averaging approach. If the company has paid a dividend for decades, then it’s an added positive. Applying a DRIP is always worth consideration.

On the short side, large rallies can be frustrating, but if the shorts are correct, then they need to remember that while bull markets take years to build, they only take months (sometimes weeks) to be destroyed. In other words, any future gains made by shorts have the potential to offset any losses while the market was rallying.

The Bottom Line

Is Edwards correct? Unfortunately, he could be. When excess capacity must be unwound and massive debts must be deleveraged in an economic environment where an aging and reluctant consumer is ever-present, it’s not what you would call a bullish situation. As always, you should do your own research to form your own conclusions and consider consulting a financial advisor.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022316/sp-550-what-wall-streets-biggest-bear-believes.asp