使用移動平均線的策略

 

交叉

交叉是最基本的信號並且受大多數交易員的歡迎，因為它能排除所有的情緒。最基本類型的交叉是一種資產價格的移動平均線從一端移動並在另一端結束。交易員用價格交叉來鑒別動量轉移並作為一個基本的進入和退出策略。如下圖所示，一個移動平均線之下的交叉表明下降趨勢的開始，交易員通常把它當作開始或者關閉長期倉位的信號。相反，移動平均線之上的交叉則意味著新的上升趨勢的開始。

 

第二種類型的交叉是短期移動平均線與長期移動平均線交叉。這是一個在一個方向強勁運動的信號。當短期移動平均線穿過長期移動平均線到其上面時發出一個買入信號。而短期移動平均線交叉到長期移動平均線下面時則產生賣出信號。如下圖所示，這個信號非常客觀，這也是它為什麼這麼流行的原因。

 

三交叉和移動平均線絲帶

可以再增加移動平均線以增加圖表的可靠性。許多交易員會在圖表中設置5天、10天和20天移動平均線等待5天移動平均線向上穿過其他移動平均線而產生買入信號。等待10天移動平均線向上穿過20天移動平均線作為確認，這是減少錯誤信號的一種方式。增加移動平均線的數量是判斷趨勢強度和趨式持續可能性的最好方式。

 

這就引出了一個問題：如果你一直增加移動平均線將會出現什麼情況呢？有些人認為如果一條移動平均線管用，那麼10條或者更多條的效果會更好。 這使我們聯想到一個成為移動平均線絲帶的技術，正如下圖所示，在一個圖表中設置許多移動平均線以判斷當前趨勢的強度。當所有的移動平均線朝一個方向移動，那麼趨勢就很強烈。移動平均線在在相反防線頂部交叉則確定逆轉。

 

適應不斷變化環境需要採用不同的移動平均線週期。在計算中使用的時間週期越短，對價格變化的反映越明顯。最常見的一種絲帶是以50天移動平均線開始並到200天結束，每次遞增10天。這種移動平均線能很好的鑒別長期趨勢和反轉。

 

過濾器

過濾器是在技術分析中增加特定交易信心的技術。例如，許多投資者要等到股票價格向上穿過移動平均線並且至少高於10%才會開始交易。這是為了保證交叉是有效的並減少錯誤的信號。太依賴過濾器的缺點是可能放棄一些機會並導致錯失良機。當你不斷調整過濾器的使用後會減少這些負面影響。當進行過濾的時候沒有特定的規則，他只是一個使你投資更加有信息的額外工具。

 

移動平均包絡線

使用移動平均的另一個策略被稱為包絡線。這一策略在移動平均線附近繪制出兩個波段，用一個特定的百分率錯列出來。例如在下圖中，25天移動平均線附近放置了5%包絡線。交易員通過觀察這些波段確定他們是否是強烈的支撐和阻力區域。註意波段在到達一個包絡線水平時通常會逆轉。價格在超過這兩個波段時通常會失去動力並向中間的移動平均移動。

 

Moving Averages: Strategies

 

By Casey Murphy, Senior Analyst ChartAdvisor.com 

 

Different investors use moving averages for different reasons. Some use them as their primary analytical tool, while others simply use them as a confidence builder to back up their investment decisions. In this section, we'll present a few different types of strategies - incorporating them into your trading style is up to you! 

 

Crossovers 

A crossover is the most basic type of signal and is favored among many traders because it removes all emotion. The most basic type of crossover is when the price of an asset moves from one side of a moving average and closes on the other. Price crossovers are used by traders to identify shifts in momentum and can be used as a basic entry or exit strategy. As you can see in Figure 1, a cross below a moving average can signal the beginning of a downtrend and would likely be used by traders as a signal to close out any existing long positions. Conversely, a close above a moving average from below may suggest the beginning of a new uptrend. 

 

The second type of crossover occurs when a short-term average crosses through a long-term average. This signal is used by traders to identify that momentum is shifting in one direction and that a strong move is likely approaching. A buy signal is generated when the short-term average crosses above the long-term average, while a sell signal is triggered by a short-term average crossing below a long-term average. As you can see from the chart below, this signal is very objective, which is why it's so popular. 

 

Triple Crossover and the Moving Average Ribbon 

Additional moving averages may be added to the chart to increase the validity of the signal. Many traders will place the five-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages onto a chart and wait until the five-day average crosses up through the others – this is generally the primary buy sign. Waiting for the10-day average to cross above the 20-day average is often used as confirmation, a tactic that often reduces the number of false signals. Increasing the number of moving averages, as seen in the triple crossover method, is one of the best ways to gauge the strength of a trend and the likelihood that the trend will continue. 

 

This begs the question: What would happen if you kept adding moving averages? Some people argue that if one moving average is useful, then 10 or more must be even better. This leads us to a technique known as the moving average ribbon. As you can see from the chart below, many moving averages are placed onto the same chart and are used to judge the strength of the current trend. When all the moving averages are moving in the same direction, the trend is said to be strong. Reversals are confirmed when the averages cross over and head in the opposite direction.

 

Responsiveness to changing conditions is accounted for by the number of time periods used in the moving averages. The shorter the time periods used in the calculations, the more sensitive the average is to slight price changes. One of the most common ribbons starts with a 50-day moving average and adds averages in 10-day increments up to the final average of 200. This type of average is good at identifying long-term trends/reversals. 

 

Filters 

A filter is any technique used in technical analysis to increase one's confidence about a certain trade. For example, many investors may choose to wait until a security crosses above a moving average and is at least 10% above the average before placing an order. This is an attempt to make sure the crossover is valid and to reduce the number of false signals. The downside about relying on filters too much is that some of the gain is given up and it could lead to feeling like you've "missed the boat". These negative feelings will decrease over time as you constantly adjust the criteria used for your filter. There are no set rules or things to look out for when filtering; it's simply an additional tool that will allow you to invest with confidence. 

 

Moving Average Envelope 

Another strategy that incorporates the use of moving averages is known as an envelope. This strategy involves plotting two bands around a moving average, staggered by a specific percentage rate. For example, in the chart below, a 5% envelope is placed around a 25-day moving average. Traders will watch these bands to see if they act as strong areas of support or resistance. Notice how the move often reverses direction after approaching one of the levels. A price move beyond the band can signal a period of exhaustion, and traders will watch for a reversal toward the center average. 

 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/university/movingaverage/movingaverages4.asp