最可靠的圖表形態之一 ——牛市和熊市陷阱

牛市陷阱

當向上突破反轉穿透阻力位時，就代表牛市陷阱的產生。阻力位通常是兩個或多個相同高點之間的連線。

• 牛市陷阱應該跟隨下降趨勢交易，當價格穿透阻力位時做空；
• 在上升趨勢持續一段時間之後，牛市陷阱也有可能是反轉信號。

熊市陷阱

當價格下降突破阻力位之後又回撤到阻力位之上時，即表示熊市陷阱的產生。支撐位通常是兩個或多個相同低點之間的連線。

• 熊市陷阱應該跟隨上升趨勢交易，當價格回撤到支撐位之上時做多；
• 在下降趨勢進行了一段時間之後的熊市陷阱也有可能是反轉信號。

牛市和熊市陷阱（假突破）通常也會在較長的時間框架中發生。下圖展示的是福特汽車公司股票歷時一年多的牛市陷阱。

1. 價格於[1]處在1998大幅攀升到了新高，但之後很快回撤。
2. [1]、[2]、[3]處價位形成阻力位，接下來的價位調整是一個熊市信號。
3. 牛市陷阱：價格在[3]處上漲到新高，但接下來的k線卻突破阻力位。
4. [4]處出現小幅回探，確認價格下降趨勢。
5. [4]、[5]兩處同樣的高點確立了32.00處的阻力位，說明[3]之前的k線是一個有力的熊市信號。
6. [6]處價格的回升動力逐漸枯竭。
7. 下降趨勢中相同高度的k線是很強的熊市信號，隨後出現了價格的大幅下降。

Chart Patterns - Bull and Bear Traps
One of the most reliable chart patterns.
Bull Traps
Bull traps occur when an upward breakout retreats back below a resistance level. Resistance is normally associated with two/more equal highs or an earlier major high.
• Bull traps should be traded in a down-trend.
• They may also signal reversal after an extended up-trend.
Go short when price falls back below the resistance level.
Bear Traps
Bear traps occur when a downward breakout retreats back above a support level. Support is normally associated with two/more equal lows or an earlier major low.
• Bear traps should be traded in an up-trend.
• They may also signal reversal after an extended down-trend.
Go long when price rises above the support level.
Wide Bull and Bear Traps
Bull and bear traps (and false breaks) often occur in longer time frames as well.
Ford Motor Co. displays a bull trap that took more than a year to complete:
1. Price spiked up to a new high, in early 1998, but quickly retraces.
2. Resistance forms just below the previous high. The strong following correction is a bearish sign.
3. Bull trap: Price rallies to a marginal new high but then retreats below the new support level.
4. A short retracement confirms the trend change.
5. An equal lower high confirms resistance has formed at 32.00: the low before [3]. A strong bear signal.
6. Another attempted rally peters out.
7. Equal highs in a down-trend are a strong bear signal; and are followed by a long downward spike.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

本文來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/point_figure_bull_bear_traps.php