阿隆指標(Aroon Oscillator)

阿隆指標由 Tushar Chande發明，可以用來顯示一個新趨勢的開始並測量趨勢強度。 Chande首次在1995年9月出版的《股票商品技術分析》雜志中提到這個指標。阿隆指標由3條線組成：阿隆上升線、阿隆下行線以及顯示二者區別的阿隆指標。“阿隆”是一個梵文詞語，意思為“黎明的第一縷光”。

阿隆交易信號

可以根據阿隆上升線和阿隆下行線推測趨勢。Chande 推薦以下交易信號：

• 阿隆上升線在70以上，表明很強的上升走勢。
• 阿隆下行線在70以上，表明下降趨勢強勁。
• 阿隆上升線在50以下，說明上升趨勢減弱。
• 阿隆下行線在50以下，表明下降趨勢減弱。
• 二者同時位於地位且互相靠近，表明處於調整期，沒有明顯趨勢。

阿隆指標的交易信號：

• 大於0，表明趨勢上升。
• 小於0，表明趨勢下降。
• 阿隆指標距0越遠，趨勢越強勁。

  
示例：

在CRB商品指數以及阿隆上升線和阿隆下行線。63日指數移動均線作為一個過濾器：位於均線上部的信號做多，均線下部的做空。

1. [S] 處當阿隆下行線（紅色）向上越過70，並且當前價格位於63日移動平均線下方時做空。
2. [X] 處當阿隆下行線再次下降到50下方的時候平倉。
3. [?] 處不建議做多，因為價格在63日移動均線下方。

接下來幾個月股票走勢及建議交易詳情如下：

1. [S] 處當阿隆下行線（紅色）越過70，且價格位於63日均線下方時，做空。
2. [X] 處當阿隆下行線返回到50以下的時候，平倉。
3. [L] 處當阿隆上升線（藍色）大於70，價格位於63日均線上方時，做多。
4. [X] 處當阿隆上升線重新回到50下方時，平倉。
5. 阿隆下行線位於70上方時，不建議做多，因為當前股價位於63日均線上方。接下來在[L] 處，當阿隆上升線（藍色）上升到70以上，並在阿隆下行線上方時，做多。
6. [X] 處當阿隆上升線重新回到50下方時，平倉。如果阿隆上升線向下穿透下行線，那麼這也是一個平倉信號。
7. 阿隆下行線穿過70時，不建議做空。因為此時股價在63日均線上方。如果此時做空，那麼該筆單子將會在9日後當價格重新回到63日均線上方時止損。
8. [L] 處當阿隆上升線在70之上，股價在63日均線上方時，做多。

阿隆公式

1. 決定時間週期 ("n")
2. 從週期結束處向前數出尾部到最高點("HH")所用的天數。
3. 利用公式 [( n - HH )/ n ] x 100%，計算阿隆上升線。

例如，如果週期為25日，最高點是今天。那麼 (HH=0)，阿隆上升 = (25-0)/25 x 100% = 100%。如果最高點發生在10天前，那麼(HH=10), 當前值為 (25-10)/25 x 100% = 60%.

4. 自後向前數出到最低點("LL")的天數。
5. 利用公式計算阿隆下行線 [( n - LL )/ n ] x 100%

現在，我們已經得出阿隆上升線和阿隆下行線，我們可以計算出阿隆指標：

6. 阿隆上升線減去阿隆下行線。

阿隆評價

一個弱點是強調了前面的例子中，當價格做了一個假突破。下面的圖表顯示了錯誤的信號。阿隆下上升到100％，一條長長的尾巴，使一個新的25日低點的時候。阿隆向下突出的低，但強烈的接近是一個牛市的信號，表明買盤支撐。

阿隆指標評價

前面的例子中的假突破說明了阿隆指標的一個弱點。下圖顯示了一個假信號。當長尾K線走出25日最低點之後，阿隆下行達到100%。阿隆下行線強調了價格的最低值，但是收盤價卻給出了一個牛市信號，預示著買方市場。

不過，我卻對阿隆上升線和阿隆下行線的反映能力印象深刻。在相似的週期內，其結果可以與動向運動系統相媲美。

下面的CRB指數走勢圖以及阿隆指標、63日移動平均線、25日動向指標。較短期的14日動向指標被舍棄，因為它給出了較多的虛假信號。二者的反映靈敏度相似，[S] 處都給出了入場信號。動向指標可以讓你在趨勢中交易更久。二者的表現都可以通過使用長期移動平均線過濾作用得到加強。

盡管對阿隆指標印象深刻，但是我沒有發現其在測量趨勢強弱方面有特別的作用。

Aroon Oscillator
The Aroon Oscillator was developed by Tushar Chande to highlight the start of a new trend and to measure trend strength. Chande first described the indicator in the September 1995 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine. The Aroon indicator system consists of three lines: Aroon Up, Aroon Down, and the Aroon Oscillator which reflects the difference between the two. "Aroon" is a Sanskrit word meaning "dawn's early light".
Aroon Trading Signals
The Aroon Up and Aroon Down indicators signal the start of a new trend. Chande recommends the following signals:
• Aroon Up above 70 indicates a strong up-trend.
• Aroon Down above 70 indicates a strong down-trend.
• Aroon Up below 50 warns that the up-trend is weakening.
• Aroon Down below 50 signals that the down-trend is weakening.
• The two moving lower in close proximity indicates consolidation, with no clear trend.
Trading signals for the Aroon Oscillator:
• Above zero signals an up-trend.
• Below zero indicates a down-trend.
• The farther away Aroon Oscillator is from the zero line, the stronger the trend.
 
EXAMPLE
The CRB Commodities index is shown with Aroon Up and Aroon Down. The 63-Day Exponential Moving Average is used as a filter: only take long signals above the moving average and only take short signals below.
1. Go short [S] when Aroon Down [red] crosses to above 70 and price is below the 63-Day moving average.
2. Exit [X] when Aroon Down retreats below 50.
3. Do not go long at [?] because price is below the 63-Day moving average.
The next few months are shown in greater detail.
1. Go short [S] when Aroon Down [red] crosses to above 70 and price is below the 63-Day moving average.
2. Exit [X] when Aroon Down retreats below 50.
3. Go long [L] when Aroon Up [blue] crosses above 70 and price is above the 63-Day moving average.
4. Exit [X] when Aroon Up retreats below 50.
5. Do not go short when Aroon Down crosses above 70 because price is above the 63-Day moving average.
Go Long [L] the next day when Aroon Up [blue] crosses above 70 and above Aroon Down.
6. Exit [X] when Aroon Up retreats below 50.
If Aroon Up had to cross below Aroon Down while above 50, this would also signal an exit.
7. Do not go short when Aroon Down crosses above 70 because price is above the 63-Day moving average. This trade is stopped out when price reverses above the moving average 9 days later.
8. Go long [L] when Aroon Up crosses above 70 and price is above the 63-Day moving average.
Aroon Setup
The default time period for the Aroon indicators is 25 Days.
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator — and Edit Indicator Settings to change the settings.
Aroon Formula
1. Determine the time period ("n")
2. Count back the number of days from the end of the period to the highest high for the period ("HH")
3. Calculate Aroon Up using the formula [( n - HH )/ n ] x 100%
For example, if the period is 25 days and the highest high is today (HH=0), Aroon Up = (25-0)/25 x 100% = 100%. If the highest high occurred 10 days ago (HH=10), then the current value would be (25-10)/25 x 100% = 60%.
4. Count back the number of days from the end of the period to the lowest low for the period ("LL")
5. Calculate Aroon Down using the formula [( n - LL )/ n ] x 100%
Now that we have Aroon Up and Aroon Down we can calculate the Aroon Oscillator:
6. Subtract Aroon Down from Aroon Up.
Aroon Evaluation
A weakness was highlighted in the earlier example when price made a false breakout. The chart below shows the false signal. Aroon Down rises to 100% when a long tail makes a new 25-day low. Aroon Down highlights the low, but the strong close is a bull signal, indicating buying support.
I am impressed, however, with the responsiveness of Aroon Up and Aroon Down. Results are comparable to the acclaimed Directional Movement System when set for a similar period.
The CRB index chart below shows signals from the Aroon system (and 63-Day exponential moving average) on the price chart — and Directional Movement (25-Day) below. The shorter-period 14-Day Directional Movement System was discarded as it gave too many false signals. Responsiveness of the two indicators is similar, with identical entry points at [S]. Directional Movement keeps you in the trend longer, but perhaps too long in this case. Performance of either system is enhanced by use of the long-term moving average as a filter.

While impressed with Aroon Up and Aroon Down, I do not find the actual Aroon Oscillator particularly useful as a measure of trend strength.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

本文來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/aroon_oscillator.php