蔡金資金流向指標 (Chaikin money flow)

2014-12-18 17:34:56

蔡金資金流向指標是Marc Chaikin發明的建立在集聚線（Accumulation/Distribution Line）之上的另一個比較受歡迎的指標。該指標在確認趨勢方面作用顯著，並可以提前對趨勢突破發出警告。

通過觀察增加的交易量以及日K線上連續性的較高收盤價，蔡金資金流向指標可以確認買方支撐位。同樣，賣方壓力也可以通過增加的交易量以及日K線上不斷降低的收盤價推算出來。

蔡金資金流向有兩個弱點：

• 該指標沒有把缺口考慮在内。
• 蔡金資金流向指標有“吠叫兩次”的趨勢——這一點與簡單移動平均線類似（異常的數據會在被指標計算在内的第一天以及從指標中去除的最後的一天影響指標的正常計算）

TMF指標 (Twiggs Money Flow) 解決了這些缺陷。

交易信號

蔡金流動指標為正數的時候表明集聚，而負數則表明分散。數值越高（大於零或小月零），表明趨勢越強烈。

• 當價格突破阻力位，並且蔡金資金流動指標大於零時，做多。
• 當價格突破支撐位，並且蔡金資金流動指標小於零時，做空。

背離同樣可以提供良好的交易信號

• 出現看漲背離做多
• 看跌背離做空

示例：

澳大利亞Flight Centre 股票，以及 30週加權移動平均線、蔡金資金流向指標。

1. [L] 處出現三重背離，做多。
2. [L] 處突破阻力位，做多。蔡金資金流向指標持續幾個月都為正數，很好的預示了突破即將到來。

蔡金資金流向指標公式

蔡金資金流向指標以及TMF指標都是建立在集散指標之上的。

Marc Chaikin 利用以下公式計算集散指標（AD）：

1. 收盤價減去最低價
2. 最高價減去收盤價
3. 最高價減去最低價

該公式根據交易範圍計算收盤價位置常數：
{(收盤價－最低價) - (最高價－收盤價)} / {最高價－收盤價}
計算結果乘以當日交易量得出AD
{(收盤價－最低價) - (最高價－收盤價)} / {最高價－收盤價}* 交易量

蔡金資金流向指標計算出21日AD的和，並將結果除以相應時段的交易量。交易量作為除數，可以使計算結果在-1~1之間波動。

所述“吠叫兩次”的問題是由21日AD不斷求和引起的：異常的數據在添加到AD指標的第一天以及去除的那天（22日），都會對指標產生影響。

Chaikin Money Flow
Another popular indicator by Marc Chaikin based on the Accumulation Distribution line. The indicator often warns of breakouts and provides useful trend confirmation.
Chaikin Money Flow is based on the observation that buying support is normally signaled by increased volume and frequent closes in the top half of the daily range. Likewise, selling pressure is evidenced by increased volume and frequent closes in the lower half of the daily range. See Accumulation and Distribution.
Chaikin Money Flow has two weaknesses:
• The indicator does not account for Gaps.
• CMF has a tendency to "bark twice" - as with a simple moving average (unusually high or low data affects the indicator on the day it is added and the day it is dropped from the indicator period).
Twiggs Money Flow addresses these failings.
Trading Signals
A positive Chaikin Money Flow signals accumulation, while distribution is signaled by the indicator line below zero. The higher the reading (above or below zero), the stronger the signal.
• Go long if a breakout above resistance is supported by Chaikin Money Flow above zero.
• Go short if a breakout below support is confirmed by negative Chaikin Money Flow.
Divergences also provide good signals:
• Go long on a bullish divergence.
• Go short on a bearish divergence.

EXAMPLE
Flight Centre (Australia) with    30-week Weighted Moving Average and    Chaikin Money Flow.
1. Go long [L] on bullish triple divergence.
2. Go long [L] on break above the resistance level. The several months positive Chaikin Money Flow provides excellent warning of the breakout.
Setup
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up Chaikin Money Flow. The default settings are:
• 21 days
To alter the default settings - Edit Indicator Settings.
Chaikin Money Flow Formula
Both Twiggs Money Flow and Chaikin Money Flow are based on the Accumulation Distribution indicator.
Marc Chaikin calculates AD using:
1. Close minus Low
2. High minus Close, and
3. High minus Low.
His formula first positions the close in relation to the trading range:
                      {(Close - Low) - (High - Close)} / {High - Low}
and then calculates AD by multiplying the result by the day's volume:
                      {(Close - Low) - (High - Close)} / {High - Low} * Volume
The Chaikin Money Flow sums AD for 21 days and then divides the result by volume for the identical period. Volume is used as the divisor so that the indicator will fluctuate between a maximum of 1 and a minimum of -1.
The "barking twice" problem is caused by the straight summation of AD for 21 days - unusual data affects the indicator on the day it is added and again when it is removed (on day 22).

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供

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