肯特納通道（Keltner Channels）

Chester Keltner在他的《如何從商品期貨交易中獲利》（1960）一書根據日內波幅倍數以及典型價格的移動平均線繪制出價格通道。 Linda Bradford Raschke 根據該原理，開發並推廣了一個更為簡化的版本，即利用指數平滑移動平均數以及ATR作為指標參數。
Keltner起初設計該通道是作為趨勢交易系統，但是它結果表明，它類似於佈林帶以及包絡線指標，同樣適用於盤整期，

肯特納通道的交易信號

第一步，識別市場處於趨勢中還是盤整期。

盤整期
理論表明，價格如果先從通道的一侧開始運動，那麼接下來就很有可能走向通道的另一侧。
• 如果價格從下通道內部或下部上升，那麼做多。在價格回落至上通道邊緣或下穿移動平均線時平倉。
• 當價格從上通道內部或上部下降時做空。在價格回調至下通道邊緣或上穿移動平均線時平倉。
做多時，可以在最近的價格低點處止損；做空，則可以在最近的價格高點處止損。根據反轉信號判斷價格是否會在靠近通道邊緣時回調。

趨勢市場
Keltner 認為，價格只要不在通道內部，就可以有力的說明價格走勢動力強勁並可以按照突破進行交易。
• 在價格突破上通道時做多。在移動平均線下方設定止損。
• 價格穿透下通道時做空。在移動平均線的上方設定止損。
Keltner 起初是用通道作為平倉標準，但是這顯然不能夠及時的保護倉位。

示例
處於下降趨勢中的 RJ CRB 商品指數以及20日指數移動平均數、10日ATR指標以及基於2.5倍ATR的肯特納指標。 
 
1. [S] 處當價格收於下通道下方時做空。
2. [X] 處平倉：價格上穿移動平均線。

示例 2
長線交易者或許更喜歡設定較長週期的移動平均線和ATR。下圖是同樣的價格走勢圖，但是使用的是63日指數移動平均數以及基於2.5倍21日ATR的肯特納通道。
 
1. [S] 處價格收盤價位於通道下侧時做空。
2. [X] 處平倉：收盤價位於移動平均線上方。

ATR 通道的突破
Curtis Faith 在他的《海龜交易法則》一書中描述了海龜交易者使用的另外一種肯特納通道。它基於350日指數移動平均數（收盤價），上通道線是7倍的350日ATR，下通道線是3倍ATR。
• 如果前一日的收盤價位於上通道線上方，那麼次日開盤則做多。
• 如果前一日的收盤價位於通道下方，那麼次日開盤的時候做空。
• 當價格反轉穿過移動平均線的時候平倉。

快速上升的趨勢
Linda Raschke 認為，肯特納通道在判斷市場是否逃離（價格加速上升，沒有回調或者回調短暫）方面有很大作用。肯特納通道提醒交易者：交易策略，比如逢低買進，應該結合市場行情。
肯特納通道設定
下面是兩種肯特納通道的設定方法：
• 肯特納通道的最初設定：基於典型價格的10日簡單移動平均線，以及2倍的10日平均波幅作為上下通道。
• Linda Raschke開發的一種更為常用的肯特納通道設定：基於收盤價的20日指數移動平均線以及2.5倍20日ATR。
不同倍數的ATR可以在通道上方或下方繪制出來。

肯特納指標公式
最初的肯特納指標，簡單移動平均數的參數應用典型價格，（最高價+最低價+收盤價）/3。Linda Raschke 改進後的簡化版本省去了典型價格，因為指數移動平均線本身就可以提供足夠的平滑度。下面是簡化版的肯特納通道的計算公式：
上通道線 = 基於收盤價的EMA + ATR的倍數
下通道線=基於收盤價的EMA — ATR的倍數

肯特納通道評估
肯特納通道結合移動平均線操作可以很好的追隨趨勢交易，不會輕易的被掃損。

Keltner Channels (also known as "Keltner Bands")
Chester Keltner, in his 1960 book How to Make Money in Commodities, plotted channels as a multiple of daily range (high - low) around a moving average of Typical Price. Linda Bradford Raschkepopularized a simplified version, using exponential smoothing andAverage True Range, that is now more widely used.
Keltner originally devised the channels for use as a trend-following system, but they may also be used to trade ranging markets, in a similar fashion to Bollinger Bands or Price Envelopes.
Keltner Trading Signals
First, identify whether price is trending or ranging.
Ranging Market
The theory is that a movement that starts at one price band is likely to carry to the other.
• Go long when prices turn up at or below the lower band. Close your position if price turns down near the upper band or crosses to below the moving average.
• Go short when price turns down at or above the upper band. Close your position if price turns up near the lower band or crosses to above the moving average.
Place stop losses below the most recent low when you go long or above the latest high when short.
Use reversal signals to identify turning points close to the upper and lower bands.
 
Trending Market
Keltner believed that a close above the upper band, or below the lower band, is evidence of a strong move and should be traded as a breakout.
• Go long when price breaks above the upper band. Set a stop loss below the moving average and exit if price crosses below the moving average.
• Go short when price turns below the lower band. Set a stop loss above the moving average and exit if price crosses above the moving average.
Keltner originally used the lower and upper bands for exits, but these tend to be late.
EXAMPLE
The RJ CRB Commodities Index down-trend is displayed with the modified version of Keltner Channels with 20-day exponential moving average, 10-day ATR and Keltner bands set at 2.5 times average true range.
1. Go short [S] when price closes below the lower channel
2. Exit [X] when price crosses above the moving average
EXAMPLE 2
Long-term traders may prefer to use longer moving average and ATR settings. Here is the same chart, but with 63-day exponential moving average, 21-day ATR and Keltner bands at 2.5 times average true range.
1. Go short [S] when price closes below the lower channel
2. Exit [X] when price crosses above the moving average
ATR Channel Breakout
Curtis Faith in his book Way Of The Turtle describes a variation of the Keltner system used by the legendaryTurtle Traders. The channel is based on a 350-Day (exponential) moving average of closing prices, with the upper border plotted as 7 times 350-Day ATR and the lower border as 3 times ATR.
• Go long at the open if the previous day closes above the upper band.
• Go short at the open if the previous day closes below the lower band.
• Exit when price crosses back through the moving average.
Accelerating Trends
Linda Raschke maintains that Keltner Bands are of greatest value in determining runaway market conditions, often referred to as accelerating trends or blowoffs, when retracements are likely to be extremely short or non-existent. Keltner Bands alert traders that normal trading techniques, such as buying on dips, should be adjusted to fit the changed circumstances.
Keltner Channel Setup
Incredible Charts provides two versions of Keltner Channels:
• Keltner Channels (Original), using Keltner's first published settings: a 10-day simple moving average ofTypical Price and 10-day average daily range (high - low) with a multiple of 1; and
• Keltner Channels, the more popular version from Linda Raschke: a 20-day exponential moving average of Closing Price and a multiple of 2.5 times 20-day Average True Range.
Separate multiples of ATR can be plotted for the upper and lower bands.
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator — and Edit Indicator Settings to change the settings.
Keltner Channel Formula
The original formula used a simple moving average of Typical Price, (High + Low + Close) / 3, but Linda Raschke's version dispensed with Typical Price, as the exponential moving average provides sufficient smoothing on its own. Here is the formula for the later, simplified version:
Upper Band = Exponential MA of Closing Price + multiple of Average True Range
Lower Band = Exponential MA of Closing Price - multiple of Average True Range
Keltner Evaluation
Keltner Channels are a useful enhancement for eliminating whipsaws when trading trends with a moving average system.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

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