隨機指標

隨機指標是由Dr. George Lane 開發用來追隨市場動能的一個指標。該指標由兩條曲線組成：
• %K 將收盤價與最近的價格波動範圍對比。
• %D 是%K 經過平滑之後的信號線。
隨機指標的週期選擇可以根據交易目標來確定：

 
慢性隨機指標進行了進一步的平滑處理，提供的交易信號也更為可靠。

隨機指標交易信號
如果隨機指標在徘徊在100附近，說明買方力量集聚；接近於0軸則說明賣方市場。隨機指標底部的形態也可以給出價格接下來反彈的迹象。淺且窄的底部說明空頭力量微弱，反彈有可能強勁。寬而深的底部則說明空頭力量強大，反彈幅度有限。同樣，隨機指標的頭部也適用：狹窄的頭部說明多頭力量微弱，回調幅度大。寬且高的頭部說明多頭力量強大，回調可能微弱。

橫盤整理期
下列交易信號按照其重要性排列：
做多信號
1、%D出現看漲背離，並且前期低點位於超賣水平線之下。
2、當%K或%D從超賣區域反轉後做多。
3、當%K向上穿過%D時做多
做空信號
1、做空：%D出現看跌背離，並且前期高點位於超買水平線之上。
2、%K或%D向上升高到超買區域上方向下回調後，做空。
3、當%K向下穿過%D後做空。
做多時，在附近的價格低點處設定止損；做空則在附近的高點處設定止損。
%K 與 %D的方向一致，可以用來確認短期趨勢的方向。 Lane同時使用經典的三重背離來確認走勢。

趨勢市場
要根據趨勢方向選擇交易信號。當慢性指標位於超買區時不宜做多，位於超賣區時不宜做空。利用追蹤止損買入/賣出掛單進場並使用止損保護自己的利潤。
做多:
如果隨時指標 (%K 或 %D) 下降到超賣水平線下方，那麼設定追蹤買入止損掛單。進場之後，在附近下降趨勢的低點處（交易週期的價格最低點）設定止損。
做空:
如果隨機指標上升到超買水平線上方，設定追蹤賣出止損掛單。進場後在交易週期的價格最高點處設定止損。
平倉:
利用趨勢指標來確認平倉位置。

隨機指標示例
慢性隨機指標來顯示交易信號。該研究集中在趨勢市場中的追蹤止損買入。英特爾公司估計以及21日MA（收盤價）作為趨勢過濾器，7日隨機指標    %K 、   %D。

 
1. %K 下降到 20下方。在當日價格的最高點上方$33 ½ 處設定追蹤止損買入。
2. 根據第二日價格的最高點上調止損買入到$33。
3. 繼續下調止損買入到第三日價格最高點的上方。
4. 下調止損買入到$32 1/2 – 第四日最高點上方一個點處。
5. 開盤價創下$31 3/8 的新低，繼而上升直到我們在$32 ½的價位止損買入。在價格的最低點下方一個點處設定止損。這樣即使價格跌破當日的最低點，我們也不會被掃損。
6. 當收盤價位於MA下方時平倉。

隨機指標的設定
隨機指標的預設設定為：
• %K - 5 日
• %D - 3 日
• 所有的指標線都是簡單移動平均線計算得出
• 超買區域 - 70%
• 超賣區域 - 30%

公式
計算慢性隨機指標：
1、第一步是決定交易週期（K%週期）。正常使用的是5日，但這應該根據你的交易時間框架調整。
2、通過將最近的收盤價與交易週期內價格的波動範圍比較，計算出%K。        
           CL = 今日收盤價 - %K 週期內價格的最低價
           HL =%K週期內價格的最高價 - %K 週期內價格的最低價
           %K = CL / HL *100
3、通過對%K進一步平滑計算出%D 。預設是利用3倍於MA的週期，但這也可以根據你交易的時間框架改變。

Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator was developed by Dr. George Lane to track market momentum.
The indicator consists of two lines:
• %K compares the latest closing price to the recent trading range.
• %D is a signal line calculated by smoothing %K.
The number of periods used in the indicator can be varied according to the purpose for which the Stochastic Oscillator is used:
Slow Stochastic incorporates further smoothing and is often used to provide a more reliable signal.
Stochastic Oscillator Trading Signals
If the Stochastic Oscillator hovers near 100 it signals accumulation. Stochastic lurking near zero indicatesdistribution.
The shape of a Stochastic bottom gives some indication of the ensuing rally. A narrow bottom that is not very deep indicates that bears are weak and that the following rally should be strong. A broad, deep bottom signals that bears are strong and that the rally should be weak.
The same applies to Stochastic tops. Narrow tops indicate that the bulls are weak and that the correction is likely to be severe. High, wide tops indicate that bulls are strong and the correction is likely to be weak.
Ranging Markets
Signals are listed in order of their importance:
1. Go long on bullish divergence (on %D) where the first trough is below the Oversold level.
2. Go long when %K or %D falls below the Oversold level and rises back above it.
3. Go long when %K crosses to above %D.
Short signals:
1. Go short on bearish divergence (on %D) where the first peak is above the Overbought level.
2. Go short when %K or %D rises above the Overbought level then falls back below it.
3. Go short when %K crosses to below %D.
Place stop-losses below the most recent minor Low when going long (or above the most recent minor High when going short).
%K and %D lines pointed in the same direction are used to confirm the direction of the short-term trend.
Lane also used Classic Divergences, a type of triple divergence.
 
Trending Markets
Only take signals in the direction of the trend and never go long when the Stochastic Oscillator is overbought, nor short when oversold.
Use trailing buy- and sell-stops to enter trades and protect yourself with stop-losses.
Long:
If %K or %D falls below the Oversold line, place a trailing buy-stop. When you are stopped in, place a stop loss below the Low of the recent down-trend (the lowest Low since the signal day).
Short:
If Stochastic Oscillator rises above the Overbought line, place a trailing sell-stop. When you are stopped in, place a stop loss above the High of the recent up-trend (the highest High since the signal day).
Exit:
Use a trend indicator to exit.
STOCHASTIC EXAMPLE
The Slow Stochastic Example illustrates the trading signals. This study focuses on the trailing stop entry technique used in a trending market.
Intel Corporation is shown with a   21 day exponential moving average (MA) and 7 day Stochastic    %K and    %D. The MA is used as the trend indicator with closing price as a filter.
1. %K falls below 20. Place a trailing buy-stop just above the day's High of $33 1/2.
2. Move the buy-stop down to $33, above the High of day 2.
3. Move the stop down to above the High of day 3.
4. Move the stop down to $32 1/2 - one tick above the High on day 4.
5. The day opens with a new Low of $31 3/8 and then rises until we are stopped in at $32 1/2. Place a stop-loss below the Low (i.e.. the lowest Low since day [1]). Thereafter, price falls back to the day's Low, but fails to activate the stop-loss one tick below.
6. Exit when price closes below the MA.
Stochastic Oscillator Setup
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator. The default settings are:
• %K - 5 days
• %D - 3 days
• Both are calculated using simple moving averages
• overbought level - 70%
• oversold level - 30%
Stochastic Oscillator Formula
To calculate the Stochastic Oscillator:
1. The first step is to decide on the number of periods (%K Periods) to be included in the calculation. The norm is 5 days, but this should be based on the time frame that you are analyzing.
2. Then calculate %K, by comparing the latest Closing price to the range traded over the selected period:
           CL = Close [today] - Lowest Low [in %K Periods]
           HL =Highest High [in %K Periods] - Lowest Low [in %K Periods]
           %K = CL / HL *100
3. Calculate %D by smoothing %K. The original formula used a 3 period simple moving average, but this can be varied, based on the time frame that you are analyzing.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/stochastic.php