拉爾夫•.納爾遜•.艾略特，一個專業的會計師，在20世紀30年代研究金融市場價格運動時發現一些特定模式會重複出現。他以對股票市場預測驚人的準確率證明了他的發現。艾略特說，雖然走勢看似隨機而且毫無關聯，但是如果你學會觀察，你會發現一些可識別的形態。艾略特稱其發現為“艾略特波浪原則”，其影響是巨大的。他發現了從金融市場到時尚、從政治到人類文化中驅動人類潮流的常見連系。
艾略特波浪國際的總裁Robert Prechter，1976年在紐約圖書館發現幾乎塵封的艾略特的成果並使它重新煥發生機。Robert Prechter和 A.J. Frost在1978年聯合出版了《艾略特波浪原則》。在這本書中，Prechter 和 Frost預測20世紀80年代會有一個巨大的牛市，之後會有一個創紀錄的熊市。理所當然的，在20世紀80年代，艾略特波浪原則在私人和專業投資者中飛速發展。
當投資者和交易員第一次發現波浪形態的時候會有幾個反映：
難以置信——市場可以模式化並且可以由技術分析高度預測；
過度高興——找到了一個預測未來的水晶球；
最後是正確和有用的反應“哇，這是一個我應該學習使用的有價值的新工具”。
就像在自然界發現的任何系統或結構，你對波浪模式研究越深刻，你就會更加發現其結構的複雜性。它是結構化的，因為自然的模式是他們自己建立的，並以更大的尺寸建造類似的模式。你可以在植物學、地理學、生理、和人類創造的東西,像道路、住宅區……和——最近的發現並證實了的市場價格中看到這些分形模式。
自然系統，包括市場圖表中的艾略特波浪模式，隨著時間增長，他們的形式由成長中的間隔確定。
這裡將解釋其意義。當你的手在子宮中生長，他們最初看起來像船槳向四面八方生長。之後，手指之間地方的細胞停止生長或者死亡，然後形成五根手指。這種結構化的過程是任何東西生長過程中必不可少的。這種“間斷生長”出現在股票市場中再正常不過了，正如艾略特國際波浪公司的總裁Robert Prechter, Jr所說的“一切繁榮必將衰落”。
基本波浪模式
波浪分析的第一步是在市場中確定模式。其核心很簡單，只有兩種模式，驅動浪和調整浪。
驅動浪由五個上升浪組成（編號為1、2、3、4、5），其走向和下一個更大規模的趨勢相同。驅動浪之所以這麼叫是因為它有力的推動市場。
調整浪由三個下跌波浪組成（編號a、b、c)跟隨推動波出現,自走勢和下一個大規模趨勢相反。調整波只能糾正前面推動波的一部分。
一個完整的艾略特波浪由八個波浪和兩個階段組成。五波脈沖階段，波浪由數字標記，三波修正階段，波浪由字母標記。
艾略特用市場的實際行為陳述波浪形態的使用。在潛在主題上有許多變化，艾略特都精心進行了描述和講解。他還指出了重要的事實，那就是每個模式都由可識別的的要求和趨勢。通過這些觀察，他制定了大量的波浪識別的指導方針。對這些知識全面的了解對理解市場會怎樣和不會怎麼都是非常重要的。
你才剛剛開始學習的力量和艾略特波浪原理的複雜性。所以,不要讓你的艾略特波浪教育在此結束。加入艾略特波浪國際的免費俱樂部EWI和訪問的基本教程:10課的艾略特波浪原理和並在你的交易和投資中嘗試使用這個有價值的工具。
The Elliott Wave Principle
In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott, a corporate accountant by profession, studied price movements in the financial markets and observed that certain patterns repeat themselves. He offered proof of his discovery by making astonishingly accurate stock market forecasts. What appears random and unrelated, Elliott said, will actually trace out a recognizable pattern once you learn what to look for. Elliott called his discovery "The Elliott Wave Principle," and its implications were huge. He had identified the common link that drives the trends in human affairs, from financial markets to fashion, from politics to popular culture.
Robert Prechter, Jr., president of Elliott Wave International, resurrected the Wave Principle from near obscurity in 1976 when he discovered the complete body of R.N. Elliott's work in the New York Library. Robert Prechter, Jr. and A.J. Frost published Elliott Wave Principle in 1978. The book received enthusiastic reviews and became a Wall Street bestseller. In Elliott Wave Principle, Prechter and Frost's forecast called for a roaring bull market in the 1980s, to be followed by a record bear market. Needless to say, knowledge of the Wave Principle among private and professional investors grew dramatically in the 1980s.
When investors and traders first discover the Elliott Wave Principle, there are several reactions:
Disbelief - that markets are patterned and largely predictable by technical analysis alone
Joyous "irrational exuberance" - at having found a "crystal ball" to foretell the future
And finally the correct, and useful response - "Wow, here is a valuable new tool I should learn to use."
Just like any system or structure found in nature, the closer you look at wave patterns, the more structured complexity you see. It is structured, because nature's patterns build on themselves, creating similar forms at progressively larger sizes. You can see these fractal patterns in botany, geography, physiology, and the things humans create, like roads, residential subdivisions... and - as recent discoveries have confirmed - in market prices.
Natural systems, including Elliott wave patterns in market charts, "grow" through time, and their forms are defined by interruptions to that growth.
Here's what is meant by that. When your hands formed in the womb, they first looked like round paddles growing equally in all directions. Then, in the places between your fingers, cells ceased growing or died, and growth was directed to the five digits. This structured progress and regress is essential to all forms of growth. That this "punctuated growth" appears in market data is only natural - as Robert Prechter, Jr., the world's foremost Elliott wave expert and president of Elliott Wave International, says, "Everything that thrives must have setbacks."
Basic Elliott Wave Pattern
The first step in Elliott wave analysis is identifying patterns in market prices. At their core, wave patterns are simple; there are only two of them: "impulse waves," and "corrective waves."
Impulse waves are composed of five sub-waves and move in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size (labeled as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Impulse waves are called so because they powerfully impel the market.
A corrective wave follows, composed of three sub-waves, and it moves against the trend of the next larger size (labeled as a, b, c). Corrective waves accomplish only a partial retracement, or "correction," of the progress achieved by any preceding impulse wave.
One complete Elliott wave consists of eight waves and two phases: five-wave impulse phase, whose sub-waves are denoted by numbers, and the three-wave corrective phase, whose sub-waves are denoted by letters.
What R.N. Elliott set out to describe using the Elliott Wave Principle was how the market actually behaves. There are a number of specific variations on the underlying theme, which Elliott meticulously described and illustrated. He also noted the important fact that each pattern has identifiable requirements as well as tendencies. From these observations, he was able to formulate numerous rules and guidelines for proper wave identification. A thorough knowledge of such details is necessary to understand what the markets can do, and at least as important, what it does not do.
You have only just begun to learn the power and complexity of the Elliott Wave Principle. So, don't let your Elliott wave education end here. Join Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI and access the Basic Tutorial: 10 lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle and learn how to use this valuable tool in your own trading and investing.
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