Stewart Richardson , 首席投資官,2015.02.02
當美聯儲在上週提高其對美國經濟評估時，我們有點困惑。12月至1月之間肯定發生了什麼事讓他們改善看法，而這件事只能因為美國消費者將會支付更低的能源價格，他們期望消費者將節省下來的資金用於其他消費。盡管企業方面消息不利好，但是他們或許仍相信就業率會上升。
目前，我們看到了美國經濟中的兩股競争力量。一方面，消費者以及非能源企業會得益於較低的能源價格。如果他們將這筆意外利潤用於國内消費，那麼我們有很好的理由相信美國經濟會繼續很好地發展下去。另一方面，自從金融危機以來，能源領域很好地促進了美國經濟的發展，創造了很多高薪工作並產生了極好的乘數效應。此外，直到去年夏天，美元一直被低估，而這也使跨國公司收益。隨著油價的暴跌以及美元將近上升了20%，跨國企業現在成了美國經濟的潛在風險。
有很多評論員認為，美聯儲政策已經造成了金融泡沫。我們認為，泡沫的一部分有可能包含高管在上市公司的利潤。意思是說，企業高管通過購股權可以獲得大部分的報酬，因此，他們會想盡一切辦法來促使所在公司的股價上升。最明顯的機制是股份回購，但是每季度的收益預期競争，收入的不斷報告vs公認會計準則收入，缺乏資本支出（意思是企業短期負收益，但是長期收益會改善），以及靈活使用勞動力政策也加速了報酬泡沫現象。如果想進一步了解，Andrew Smithers對這一問題進行了詳細描述，你可以參照他最近出版的書以及他在英國《金融時報》的博客。
所以，我們最關心的是，能源領域的破產以及高管利潤泡沫的破裂是否會在美國消費者有充分時間將能源節省下來的資金用於消費之前損害美國經濟。上週我們認為美國經濟正面臨下行風險。週五發佈的美國經濟預報顯示或許這早已發生。盡管預期2015第一季度以及第二季度將會相對增長2.8%~2.9%，但是2014年第四季度的增長從第三季度的5%下降到2.6%。我們認為風險有可能會輕易地推翻這些預期。
非金融公司在近年來一直是股票的重要買家。因此，如果經濟放緩，回購突然降低，那麼這就很容易造成股票市場的走低。事實上，標普爾500已經沒有超過上五個月的高點，紐約證券交易所也回到了11個月以前的水平，我們認為市場已經失去動力，現在比起2011年更加脆弱。
如果股市在今年的一小時圖中進入熊市，那麼隨著實體經濟潛在的負收益循環，經濟衰退的風險將會急劇上升。就是說，美國消費者以前混淆了預期，那麼他們可以在2小時圖上拯救，但是如果那樣，將會產生多大的損失？
對於我們來說，我們的投資組合仍然保持守勢。我們認為美聯儲過於樂觀，今年將繼續被迫保持利率不變，這有助於外匯以及證券市場，這也就是我們最近的投資焦點放在實際收益回報基金的原因。美國的股市十分脆弱，相比來說，我們更喜歡歐洲以及日本的股市。外匯方面，我們已經看到了14家央行的貨幣戰争，日央行已經放寬貨幣政策（丹麥兩週内三次！）。這對於活躍的賬戶經理，比如我們來說，是很好的交易機會，這也是我們迄今為止如何定位於外匯策略的方法。
The US Consumer is Vital for Equity Markets
February 02, 2015
Stewart Richardson
Chief Investment Officer
We were somewhat bemused when the Fed upgraded their assessment of the US economy at their FOMC meeting last week. Events must have occurred between December and January for them to announce this upgrade and it can only be because they expect the consumer to spend the “tax cut” from lower energy prices. They may also believe that employment gains will continue despite news flow from the corporate sector that would indicate otherwise.
At the moment, we see two competing forces within the US economy. On the one hand, the consumer and non-energy corporate sector are much better off because of lower energy prices. If they choose to spend this windfall on domestic consumption, then there is very good reason to believe the US economy will continue to muddle through quite nicely. On the other hand, the energy sector has certainly boosted the US economy since the financial crisis and has created lots of high paying jobs with wonderful multiplier effects. Furthermore, up until last summer, it can be argued that the US Dollar was undervalued and this also benefitted the multi-national corporate sector. With the collapse in the price of oil and a near 20% rise in the US Dollar, the corporate sector is now a potential risk for the US economy.
There are enough commentators that argue whether Fed policies have created a financial bubble. We think that part of this bubble may include executive remuneration in the quoted corporate sector. By this, we mean that executives receive the vast majority of their overall compensation via share options and, as a result, do everything in their power to boost the share price of the companies they work for. The obvious mechanism is share buybacks (see first chart below) but the gaming of earnings expectations every quarter, the strenuous use of reporting vs GAAP earnings, the lack of capex (which is earnings negative short-term but would improve corporate performance long-term) and the use of flexible labour policies also contribute to a remuneration bubble phenomenon. For those who want to read more, Andrew Smithers has written extensively on this subject in both his FT blog and his recent book.
So, our biggest concern is whether the bursting of the energy sector alongside a bursting of the executive remuneration bubble will hurt the economy before the US consumer really has time to spend their windfall from lower gas prices. We argued mid last week that the risks to the US economy were on the downside. The advance estimate of US GDP released on Friday indicates that this may be happening already. Growth slowed from 5% in 3Q to 2.6% in 4Q, and although consensus estimates have growth in 1Q and 2Q to 2.8% and 2.9% respectively, we think the risk could easily tip to the downside on these estimates.
Non-financial companies have been THE major buyer of equities in recent years (see chart below). Therefore, if buybacks suddenly slow as the economy stumbles then this could easily cause equity markets to correct lower. In fact, with the S&P now no higher than in the last five months and the NYSE composite the same level as 11 months ago, we argue that the market is losing momentum and is now more vulnerable than since 2011
If the equity market does enter a bear market in 1H this year, then with the potential negative feedback loop to the real economy, the risks of a recession escalate sharply. That said, the US consumer has confounded expectations before and could come to the rescue in 2H this year but how much, if any, damage will be done by then?
For our part, we remain very defensive in our portfolios. We think that the Fed is too optimistic and will be forced to keep rates on hold this year which should help rates and bond markets which is where we have focused recent investment in the RMG Real Return Fund. Equity markets are vulnerable in the US and we (marginally) prefer European and Japanese equities where the Central Banks are printing. In FX, we are absolutely seeing currency wars with 14 central banks having eased policy so far in January (Denmark three times in two weeks!). This should be fertile ground for active managers such as ourselves and is how we have positioned the RMG FX Strategy so far this year.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供，文章來源：http://www.marketviews.com/us-consumer-vital-equity-markets/