原油的動蕩新年

俗話說，新年新氣象，但對於原油市場來說，新年只有新麻煩。1月6日，美國能源信息管理局宣佈，美國原油庫存達到4.823億桶，這是80年以來的最高記錄。但情況仍在繼續惡化，中國上個月的制造業數據疲軟，因此金融市場在上週出現了大範圍賣空。原油也難以擺脫賣空的厄運。瑞士信貸技術分析家認為，佈倫特原油1月6日的收盤價為每桶34.38美元，跌破了34.55美元的閥值，這意味著不久之後，原油將會跌入20美元區間，這是2003年以來的最低記錄。

即使是34美元一桶，也已跌破了2008年的最低記錄。無論油價是25美元還是35美元，真正的問題是，油價的低谷會持續多久？瑞士信貸依據當前狀況進行預測，認為油價將在今年內逐漸恢復。

產量過剩的問題是從幾年前開始的，那時美國的頁岩革命極大地提高了美國的石油產量，這威脅到了沙特阿拉伯世界原油霸主的地位，沙特因此採取行動，維持其市場份額。瑞士信貸認為，沙特在今年內會維持當前的石油產量，而銀行分析家會繼續關註鑽井數量和官方銷售價格，因為產量的增長會增加油價下行的風險。沙特阿拉伯的石油產量在2015年7月達到了頂峰，每天生產1050萬桶，如果沙特在那時增加了石油的產量，那麼油價在2016年就不會出現明顯的回升。

其他的國家也在石油供應方面起到了至關重要的作用。2015年，伊拉克的石油產量增加了6.8%。瑞士信貸認為，一旦解除了原油出口制裁，伊朗的產量將激增至每天50萬桶。

瑞士信貸預測，如果2016年供應市場的沖擊來源只有伊朗一個，而需求也維持在正常水平，油價就會出現轉機。銀行分析家認為，考慮到基础設施限制, ISIS的威脅以及2016年石油公司的削減投資，伊拉克石油產量進一步增加的空間不大。他們還指出，美國的石油產量在2015年第二季度開始下滑，而在2016年上半年，下滑仍將繼續。美國之外的非OPEC國家的產量也會開始下降。

如果瑞士信貸的預測是對的，那麼石油需求量的增長會減少庫存，給油價帶來上行壓力。只要不出現中國投資崩盤，或是全球經濟衰退的大災難，美國和歐洲的強勢需求足以彌補疲軟的全球工業產量。瑞士信貸認為，如果今年全球經濟增速略有提高，那麼佈倫特原油極有可能在2016年底突破64美元一桶的價格。

油價的波動比大宗商品重要的多。新興市場債券、貨幣、股票都與油價息息相關。能源價格過低會抑制通貨膨脹，而通貨膨脹又是美聯儲和歐洲央行制定貨幣政策的重要指標。

Oil’s Turbulent New Year

The beginning of a new year is supposed to be a time to start fresh, but for oil markets, 2016 has brought only fresh troubles. On January 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that at 482.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are close to an 80-year-high for this time of year. As if that weren’t enough, concerns about global economic growth, sparked by another month of weak Chinese manufacturing data, triggered a widespread selloff in global financial markets last week. Oil certainly wasn’t exempt from the rout. Brent crude oil prices closed at $34.38 a barrel on January 6, past a key threshold of $34.55 that means prices could soon fall into the $20s, the lowest since 2003, say Credit Suisse’s technical analysts. Prices have since dipped below $32 a barrel.

Even at $34 a barrel, oil prices were plumbing depths last seen in 2008. Whether $25 or $35, the real question is, how long can prices stay extraordinarily low? Credit Suisse’s base-case forecast is that oil prices will begin to recover this year.

The stage for the world’s current supply glut was set several years ago, when the shale revolution led to a huge increase in U.S. oil production and set the stage for Saudi Arabia to abdicate its role as the world’s swing producer in order to protect market share. Credit Suisse believes the Saudis will keep production levels flat this year, as the kingdom is already producing as much oil as it can without further investment to the best of Credit Suisse’s knowledge – however, the bank’s analysts continue to monitor rig counts and official selling prices since a production increase poses a downside risk to their forecast. If Saudi Arabia does ramp up production from its July 2015 peak of 10.5 million barrels per day, it would likely prevent oil prices from rising significantly in 2016.

Other countries also have an important part to play on the supply side of the oil equation. Iraqi production soared 23 percent in 2015, while U.S. supply grew 6.8 percent in 2015. Looking forward, Credit Suisse analysts believe Iran will ramp up production by 500,000 barrels per day once the sanctions on crude exports are lifted.

If Iranian oil is the only significant new supply to hit the markets in 2016 and demand stays on track, Credit Suisse expects oil prices to inflect up later in the year. The bank’s analysts believe that Iraqi production has little room to grow further, given infrastructure constraints, the threat from ISIS, and oil companies cutting investments for 2016. They also note that U.S. production began to fall in the second quarter of 2015, and declines are likely to continue in the first two quarters of 2016. Non-OPEC countries outside the United States are likely to experience declining output as well.

If Credit Suisse’s supply forecasts are correct, rising demand for oil should eventually force a draw on inventories, putting upward pressure on prices. Healthy consumer demand trends in the U.S. and Europe should make up for weakening global industrial production, unless a collapse in Chinese investment or an unforeseen disaster prompts a global recession. If global growth improves slightly this year, however, as currently forecasted, Credit Suisse believes Brent crude prices will hit $64 a barrel by the end of 2016.

The oil price trajectory has implications far beyond the commodities complex. The performance of emerging market bonds, currencies, and equities are highly correlated with oil prices. Low energy prices also depress headline inflation numbers, and inflation is the key indicator that officials at both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are watching to determine future monetary policy. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/oils-turbulent-new-year/#sthash.cJP9yG1p.dpuf