對於中國的高級官員來講，只要守住正確的政治方向，就能保住鐵飯碗，他們被解雇的消息幾乎聞所未聞。但一週之前，中國證監會主席肖剛被免職，讓所有人大吃一驚。
在肖剛的監管下，股票泡沫已經膨脹破裂。他在2013年初成為中國證券監管委員會(CSRC)主席，而證券市場在2014年中陷入瘋狂，並在2015年中徹底崩盤，股市蒸發了5萬億美元。更糟糕的是，在股市暴漲和暴跌的時候，都有他的手筆。
在股票上漲的時候，他扮演的是活力十足的拉拉隊長。在股票價格漲到頂峰，即將崩潰之前，他將股市戲稱為“改革牛”，認為這是在響應政府的經濟改革計劃，實際上卻是鏡花水月。他還錯估了市場風險，認為槓桿購買的股票已在可控範圍内，而實際情況卻已達到了前所未有的水平。在股市下跌的過程中，他採取熔斷機制試圖降低損失，最終因恐慌加劇、大量抛售而不得不取消。
近幾個月流言四起，傳說高層領導已對肖剛失去信心。投資者稱給他起了外號叫“消光”，聽起來和他本名很像。路透社在1月18日報道稱，他已提交了辭呈。但最終批準的卻是李克強總理。現在，肖剛成了股市和李克強總理之間的緩沖帶，很多重大事件的責任都會歸咎到他的身上。
肖剛的位置將由劉士餘接任。劉士餘剛剛被任命為中國農業銀行行長，此前曾任農行副行長。他最希望的莫過於最糟的時期已經過去：藍籌股滬深300指數自去年六月的頂峰下跌了40%。但在大量賣空之後，小盤股的成交價仍是去年收益的90倍，這表明價格修正還有很長的路要走（倍數達到40倍甚至更低才是合理的）。
除此之外，劉先生將接手一項艱巨的任務：修改首次公開招募(IPO)制度。今年來，當局試圖將單一機構審批制度轉變為註冊制。在審批制度下，監管機構有權決定哪家公司、何時、以何種價格上市，但在註冊制度下，這些決策將有市場（承銷商、公司及投資者）來決定。
審批制容易引發貪污，因為監管機構被賦予了極大的權力。但是中國的市場波動極大，缺少對投資者必要的法律保護，因此註冊制可能會導致大量公司為了圈錢而上市，股市更會一瀉千裡。面對困難，肖剛先生猶豫不決，劉士餘先生則需大刀闊斧。
China’s Stockmarket Fail to the Chief
AS LONG as they stay on the right side of political battles, officials who reach the exalted heights of Chinese government can generally count on job security. Firing them in the middle of their term for poor performance is almost unheard of. The removal last week of Xiao Gang, China’s securities regulator (pictured), more than two years before the end of his term, was thus remarkable.
It was bad enough that a stockmarket bubble had swollen and burst on Mr Xiao’s watch. He became chief of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in early 2013; the stockmarket rally began in mid-2014 and turned into a mania before collapsing in mid-2015, wiping out some $5 trillion in wealth. Worse, his fingerprints were all over the market’s excesses, when it soared and when it fell.
On the way up, he was an energetic cheerleader. In the months before the crash, when prices were already unsustainably high, Mr Xiao described the rally as a “reform bull”—that is, a fair response to the government’s economic-reform plans, however vague and incremental they actually were. He also missed the dangers in the market, arguing that leveraged buying of shares was under control, when in fact it had reached unprecedented levels. On the way down, he was the guiding force behind the adoption of a circuit-breaker mechanism intended to slow losses. This ended up exacerbating panic-selling and had to be scrapped.
For months, rumours spread that senior leaders had lost faith in Mr Xiao. Investors took to referring to him as Xiao Rectum, which sounds very similar to his actual name. Reuters reported on January 18th that he had offered to resign. Yet the final decision to remove him from the CSRC is still a risky one for Li Keqiang, the premier. Until now, the bumbling Mr Xiao stood as a buffer between the stockmarket and Mr Li. In the event of more market mayhem, blame will now filter upstairs.
Mr Xiao’s successor is Liu Shiyu, who most recently was chairman of Agricultural Bank of China, a big state-owned bank, and previously was a deputy governor of the central bank. He is doubtless hoping that the worst is past: the CSI-300 index of blue-chip shares has shed more than 40% of its value since last June’s peak. Yet even after the sell-off, small-cap shares still trade at nearly 90 times last year’s earnings, which suggests that the correction may have further to run (a multiple of 40 or so would be more reasonable).
What’s more, Mr Liu has the unenviable task of changing the way that initial public offerings (IPOs) are conducted. For years the authorities have mulled shifting from a system in which these are individually authorised to one in which eligible firms simply register their intention to list. Under the former, regulators control which companies get to list, when and roughly at what price. In the latter, these decisions are given over to the market (in effect, to underwriters, firms and investors).
The authorisation system is prone to corruption because it gives regulators undue power. But in a volatile market with scant legal protection for investors, the fear is that registration will be abused by unscrupulous firms and so could be even more damaging. Mr Xiao handled this dilemma by dragging his feet. Mr Liu will be under pressure to move more boldly.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21693608-rare-episode-accountability-after-almighty-crash-fail-chief