Michelle Toovey 2016年三月8日
石油和加元在2016年初幾乎同時跌到多年以來的低谷，這不是一個巧合。加元和油價有著一個正相關性，因為大宗商品是該國最大出口產品。當石油價格下跌，該國的出口收入減少。這將影響該國的經濟健康從而影響其貨幣。當石油價格上漲，相反關系也成立。出口收入增加，其經濟健康得到改善從而貨幣會升值。那些相信石油價格在長遠看來會上漲的投資者可以通過投資加元對石油價格下註。
根據興業銀行一位分析師的說法，加元在外匯交易領域長期以來一直和石油保持著很高的相關性。經濟學家把加元看成一種石油貨幣和大宗商品貨幣。
數據
2014年，加拿大是世界上第五大石油生產國。該國是美國最大的原油供應國。加拿大擁有世界上第二大的已被證實的原油儲備。隨著新技術改善石油開採的成本和效率，加拿大近年來的石油儲備和產量有大幅增加。有些人認為加拿大的石油儲備甚至已經十分接近沙特阿拉伯，因為有對沙特石油儲備真實性的質疑。
機會
石油價格在2014年達到頂峰後迅速下跌。最初下降的原因是隨著新供應的增加需求跟不上節奏。隨著價格下跌，生產商不願意削減產量而是維持原來產量，有些甚至在增加以保證其市場份額。2016年初，石油價格低於最近最高價格的三分之一，但是很多市場參與者已經認為石油價格將會上漲。石油是一個週期性大宗商品，價格的恢複只是一個時間問題。
那些對石油價格在未來回升有信心的人可以尋找途徑獲利。對未來石油價格看漲的投資者可以在期貨市場做多原油。然而，直接投資原油期貨可能不受投資者歡迎。期貨投資風險高、複雜並且不適合所有投資者。幸運的是，有投資原油的其他方式代替直接投資原油。
那些不想直接投資原油但是想從石油價格波動中受益的投資者可以投資加元。通過對加元價值上升的下註，投資者實際上是壓註原油價格上升，而不用直接購買石油期貨。
未來的聯系
在計劃一個長期投資時，重要的是考慮是否在獲利機會出現之前出現創造機會的基本面的改變。當談到石油價格和加元價值的關系，只要加拿大的石油出口保持其在出口份額中的重要比重，石油價格就會影響加元的價值。鑒於加拿大的石油儲備，石油在出口中的比重將會持續多年而且該國將會持續增加石油產量，其在石油市場中主要參與者的地位在近期將不會改變。
Long on Oil? Buy Canadian Dollars
By Michelle Toovey | March 08, 2016
It is not a coincidence that the price of crude oil and the value of the Canadian dollar have plunged to multi-year lows as of early 2016, almost in unison. The Canadian dollar has a positive correlation to the price of oil because the commodity is the country's largest export. When oil prices depreciate, the revenue earned from exports decreases. This impacts the health of the country’s economy and therefore the value of its currency. When oil prices appreciate, the opposite event occurs. Revenue from exports increases, the health of the economy improves and the currency appreciates. Investors who are confident that oil prices will rise in the long run can bet on higher oil prices by investing in Canadian dollars.
According to an analysis from Société Générale, the Canadian dollar maintains the highest oil correlation in foreign exchange space over time. Economists consider the Canadian dollar a petrocurrency and a commodity currency.
The Stats
In 2014, Canada was the fifth-largest oil producer in the world. The country is the top crude oil supplier to the United States. Canada holds the second-largest proven reserves of crude in the world. Canada has grown its oil reserves and production rates dramatically in recent years as new technology has improved the cost and efficiency in which oil could be extracted from the Canadian oil sands. There is some sentiment that Canada, proportionally, has oil reserves even closer to those of top-ranked holder Saudi Arabia, as there is reason to question the validity of Saudi Arabia's reserve estimates.
Opportunities
Oil prices declined rapidly after peaking in 2014. The initial descent was due to new supplies flooding the market when demand could not keep pace. As prices fell, producers were reluctant to cut output and instead decided to maintain, and in some cases increase, output to defend their market share. In early 2016, oil prices were less than one-third of what they were at their recent peak, but many market participants are already looking toward the next rally. Oil is a cyclical commodity, and it is only a matter of when, not if, prices will recover.
Those who are confident in a recovery in the future can find a way to profit. Investors who are bullish on the future of crude oil prices can take up a long position in the crude oil futures market. However, investing directly in crude oil futures may be undesirable to some investors. Futures investing is risky, complex, and therefore not suitable for all investors. Fortunately, there are other ways to invest in oil other than directly purchasing oil futures.
Investors who want exposure to fluctuating oil prices without directly buying futures can invest in the Canadian dollar. By betting on an increase in the value of the Canadian dollar, an investor is in essence betting on an increase in the value of crude oil, without having to directly purchase oil futures.
The Future of the Relationship
When planning a long-term investment, it's important to consider whether there will be any fundamental changes to the relationship that created the opportunity before there is the chance to profit. When it comes to the relationship between the value of the Canadian dollar and oil prices, as long as oil exports remain a strong component of Canada’s exports, oil prices will influence the Canadian dollar's value. Given Canada's oil reserves, the fact that demand for oil will persist for years and the country's commitment to advance oil production, its status as a major player in the oil market will remain for the foreseeable future.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030816/long-oil-buy-canadian-dollars.asp