時代在改變。從什麼時候Jim Rogers開始喜歡美元了呢？對於那些不了解Jim Rogers的人，我能告訴你他是索羅斯的前生意合夥人，同時也是對長期大宗商品持看漲態度的投資者。
如果Rogers關於美元升值的觀點是正確的，那麼大宗商品價格將會出現進一步下跌。這對新興市場來說不是個好消息。這將對包括巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國在内的新興市場產生巨大影響。如果對這個名單感到熟悉，那是因為他們是俗稱的“金磚四國”，許多年來一直是投資者投資的目的地。如果你現在觀察這個名單，巴西和俄羅斯正處在衰退中，印度正在竭力維持但是很容易受到影響，而中國經濟增長速度正在下降。
許多投資者都會指出國内政府數據表明經濟正在朝健康發展，但是仍然有兩個問題。第一，我們現在處於一個全球經濟時代。如果一個主要經濟體出現衰退，會對其他主要經濟體產生影響。第二，正如Rogers指出的，我們不應該觀看政府數據而是觀察真實數據，其中包括工資稅數據。現在的工資稅持平，表明消費者收入沒有增加。
擴散和工資稅數據的概念十分有用。但是為什麼Rogers突然開始喜歡上美元了呢？
美元
解釋為什麼Rogers喜歡美元的最簡單方式是他相信明年有100%的幾率出現衰退，而美元恰恰是一種避險方式。下一個問題，為什麼Rogers認為美元是一種避險方式呢？
相對來說美元是世界上最安全的貨幣。我們已經為經濟系統註入了很多流動性，但是還沒有歐洲央行和日本央行多。Rogers正在賣出日元買進美元。日元曾被當作一種避險手段，但是日本央行的資產負債表已經到了一個難以置信的程度。這削弱了日元的價值。在歐洲央行一直發行貨幣的歐洲出現過類似的情況。
即使美聯儲沒有採取任何舉措，他也不會和他的同行一樣平和。負利率的可能性已經完全被經濟學家、億萬富翁投資者、格林斯潘和美聯儲内部人士否認。這裡的原因很簡單：如果在五個其他央行和經濟體不起作用，為什麼在這會起作用？
然後你必須考慮去槓桿化的因素。當償還巨額債務減少美元的供應，將會增加其價值。如果Rogers是錯誤的並且以平穩速度發展達到美聯儲預期的2%通脹，那麼美聯儲將會加息。這同樣會使美元上漲。Rogers認為美元交易將會變的十分強勁並有引起貨幣泡沫出現的潛力。
衰退週期
Rogers最近指出通常四到七年會出現一次衰退，而現在已經過去了八年。這說明現在的經濟比歷史上的大多數時間都要強勁，這可能是個可笑的評估。真實的情況是美聯儲向市場投放了大量資金，這引起了過度債務和虛假增長。
Rogers在彭博社電視採訪中說的一句話非常有意思：“在未來幾年裡世界上將會出現很多動蕩，人們將會湧向他們認為的避險方式。在動蕩發生時總是如此。”
當看到“避險方式”這個詞時你首先想到的是什麼？如果你和很多人一樣，你會想到黃金。但是如果Rogers關於美元的觀點是正確的，那麼黃金將不是一種避險方式。事實上，黃金在印度和中國的需求正在持續降低。黃金稅有望在印度被完全解除。此外，黃金從來沒有在通貨緊縮情況下升值過。如果這個理論是正確的，那麼對把黃金當作避險方式的人將會承受巨大風險，他們的避險方式將不會起作用。
總結
Rogers對經濟複蘇並不樂觀。而且，他認為明顯有100%的幾率出現經濟衰退。同時他從大宗商品市場撤離並開始買進美元，因為相對的原因他把美元當成終極避險方式。如果他是正確的，那麼黃金將不是許多人之前認為避險方式。而且黃金在基本面基礎上顯然不會很強勁。這也同時表面真正的避險方式是美元。
Jim Rogers Sees 100% Chance of Recession
Times are changing. Since when does Jim Rogers like the U.S. dollar? For those of you who aren’t familiar with Rogers, he is a former business partner of George Soros, as well as a long-term commodity bull.
If Rogers is correct about the U.S. dollar appreciating, then commodities will take a further hit. This will not be a positive for emerging markets. It will have the biggest impact on emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia, India and China. If that list looks familiar it’s because it makes up the BRIC nations, which for investors was a great place to park money for many years. If you look at that list now, Brazil and Russia are in recession, India is holding its own but susceptible to contagion and China is slowing.
A lot of investors will point to domestic government numbers showing signs of economic health, but there are two concerns here. One, we now live in a global economy. That being the case, if one major economy falters, it impacts other major economies. Two, as Rogers pointed out, instead of looking at government numbers you should look at the real numbers, which includes payroll tax figures. And payroll tax figures are currently flat, indicating no income growth for consumers.
The idea of contagion and payroll tax figures makes sense. But why does Rogers suddenly like the U.S. dollar?
U.S. Dollar
The simplest way to explain why Rogers likes the U.S. dollar is because he believes there will be a 100% chance of recession over the next year, and that there will be a flight to safety - the U.S. dollar. The next question: Why does Rogers see the U.S. dollar as a flight to safety?
The U.S. dollar is the safest currency in the world on a relative basis. We have added a lot of liquidity to our economic system, but not as much as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ). Rogers is selling the Japanese yen and going long on the U.S. dollar. The Japanese yen used to be known as a safe haven, but the BOJ has been expanding its balance sheet to incredible levels. This weakens the value of the Japanese yen. A similar situation has played out in Europe, where the ECB keeps printing.
Even if the Federal Reserve doesn’t move at all, it’s not as dovish as its peers. This is bullish for the U.S. dollar. In regards to the potential for negative interest rates (which would hurt the U.S. dollar), the idea has been absolutely torched by economists, billionaire investors, Alan Greenspan and even some within the Federal Reserve. The thinking here is simple: If it hasn’t worked for five other central banks and their economies, why would it work here?
Then you have to factor in deleveraging. When massive debts are paid off it reduces the supply of U.S. dollars, which then increases their value. And if Rogers is wrong and the economy improves on a sustainable basis with the Federal Reserve hitting its dual mandate of full employment and 2% inflation, then the Fed will hike rates. This is also bullish for the U.S. dollar. Rogers thinks that the U.S. dollar trade can become so powerful that it has the potential to lead to a bubble in the currency.
Recession Call
Rogers recently pointed out that we usually have a recession an average every 4-7 years and that there hasn’t been a recession in the past eight. This would mean that the economy is stronger than at most times throughout history, which would be a laughable assessment. What’s really taking place is that the Federal Reserve pumped money into the system, which led to excessive debts and artificial growth.
One quote Rogers made on Bloomberg TV is particularly interesting: “There is going to be so much turmoil in the world over the next couple of years, people are going to flee to what they think is a safe haven. This always happens when there’s turmoil.”
What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you read “safe haven?” If you’re like most people, it’s gold. But if Rogers is correct about the U.S. dollar, then gold will not be a safe haven. In fact, gold demand is consistently waning in India (the largest consumers of gold) and China. And a gold tax that was expected to be lifted in India remained intact. Furthermore, gold has never appreciated in a deflationary environment (we have deflation without central bank intervention). The risk is large because if this theory is correct and scores of investors rush to gold, then their safe haven will turn to dust. For disclosure purposes, I’m shorting gold miners.
The Bottom Line
Rogers is not optimistic about an economic recovery. Instead, he sees a 100% chance of a recession within the next year. He has also moved away from commodities and switched to long on the U.S. dollar, seeing it as the ultimate safe haven for relative reasons. If he’s correct, then gold is not the safe haven that many perceive it to be. And gold is certainly not strong on a fundamental basis. It also means the real safe haven will be the U.S. dollar.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031616/jim-rogers-sees-100-chance-recession.asp