Ryan Downie 2016年3月15日
根據倫敦標價日黃金價格走勢的數據，黃金以1082美元每盎司在2016年開始交易，這個價格在2月26日上升到1226美元。Gold Trust ETF以101.46美元的價格在2016年開始交易，到2月末上漲17%達到118.76美元。在2016年的頭兩個月，黃金價格的上漲主要是由世界經濟不穩定造成的，利率和通脹預期為資本流向黃金創造了必要條件。分析人士認為黃金在2016年後三個季度將會出現上升後的漲跌交替，但是大多數預測都認為黃金會下跌或者上漲浮動很小。美聯儲將會繼續進行緩慢加息，而全球的通脹壓力仍然十分強勁。隨著主要股票市場的逐漸穩定，似乎催動黃金價格上漲的主要因素正在減弱。
不穩定性
黃金通常被用為投資組合中的對沖，預防不利的貨幣、財政和宏觀條件。歷史上投資者在不穩定和不確定中都會湧向黃金，主要是因為它不受工業產量的影響和其作為傳統貨幣的用途。2016年的頭兩個月，全球經濟出現大量的不確定因素。不詳的預兆引發中國股票的大幅下跌。低廉的能源和大宗商品價格繼續影響以他們為主要出口產品的經濟體。
包括巴西和阿根廷在内的南美國家出現了動蕩和高通貨膨脹，巴西的GDP繼續縮減。歐洲出現高失業率和低產能利用率以及財政問題，出現了對貨幣政策能否有效刺激經濟增長的擔憂。大宗商品價格急劇下跌，公司慘淡收入引發了可能出現經濟衰退的擔憂，並且美股開始收稅。
這些負責的環境和許多全球流行市場中不同資產明確的風險使投資者失去信心。由於黃金傳統的對沖作用，黃金需求受到投資者恐懼情緒的刺激大幅增加。2016年初黃金價格上漲主要是由其他資產的恐慌和不確定引起的。
低廉的機會成本
在不確定性充斥著全球市場的情況下，低通脹率加速了資金流向黃金和相關證券。資本從中國股票市場流出，歐洲和美國的低利率則降低了對其政府債券的需求。2016年初，利率受多年擴張性貨幣政策的影響還保持在低水平。雖然美聯儲宣佈了繼續緩慢提高利率的意圖，其他央行卻進一步削減利率或者放棄正常化。日本央行和歐洲央行將名義利率推到了負值，這是一個非常極端的措施。
股票價格下跌和來自全球財務部長們的壓力使許多人猜測美聯儲的利率正常化速度將會放緩。黃金價格會隨著持有黃金的機會成本上升而增長，高利率和股票升值會誘導投資者走出黃金這個避風港。2016年，低利率和對全球股票基本面的擔憂抑制了這種效果，使投資者湧向黃金。
通貨膨脹
當貨幣不穩定時，黃金被認為是一種自然的儲存手段，通常價格與貨幣強度呈現出相反趨勢。隨著通脹預期的增加，尤其是美元，黃金價格也會隨之上漲。全球通脹率一直增長緩慢，這導致未來幾年的通脹率增長也會相對溫和。
高失業率和低產能利用率給歐洲帶來了負通脹壓力，而日本央行則實行負利率以刺激通脹增長。盡管如此，控制食品和能源價格的美國核心通脹率在最近幾個月卻在穩定增長。對美聯儲加息的預期下降導致通脹預期上升。2016年全球的通脹率可能不足以引起黃金價格的穩定上升，但是其預期足以推動黃金價格在1月和2月的上漲。
3 Factors Driving Gold Prices Higher in 2016 (GLD)
By Ryan Downie | March 15, 2016
Gold opened 2016 at $1082 per ounce, based on the London PM Fix, and this price rose to $1226 by February 26, 2016. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD) entered 2016 at $101.46, rising 17% to $118.76 by the end of February. In the first two months of 2016, the gold rally was supported primarily by instability in the global economy, while interest rates and inflation expectations provided the necessary conditions for gold to become the destination for capital. Analyst expectations for gold over the final three quarters of 2016 were mixed after the rally, but most forecasts called for losses or modest gains in gold prices. The Federal Reserve is expected to slowly continue its rate hikes, and disinflationary pressures remain strong globally. With stabilization in major equity markets, the major catalysts driving gold higher seem to be abating.
Uncertainty
Gold is generally used as a hedge in portfolios, protecting against risks associated with adverse monetary, fiscal or macroeconomic conditions. Investors have historically flocked to gold in times of uncertainty or instability, due largely to the metal's insulation from industrial production growth and its traditional use as physical currency. In the first two months of 2016, substantial uncertainty loomed over the global economy. Ominous signs out of the Chinese economy triggered steep declines in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Low energy and commodity prices continued to drag on heavily extractive economies.
South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina experienced turmoil and high inflation, with Brazil enduring sustained gross domestic product (GDP) contraction. High unemployment and low capacity utilization in Europe compounded the fiscal problems emerging in the region, and concerns grew that monetary policy lacked the efficacy required to promote growth. Sharp commodity price declines and rumblings over a possible recession amid lukewarm corporate earnings and guidance took a toll on US. Equities.
This complex set of circumstances left investors with uninspiring options, with clear risks attached to different asset classes in many of the popular global markets. Given gold's traditional role as a hedge in portfolios, demand was stimulated by fear entering investor sentiment. The gold rally of early 2016 was supported primarily by trepidation and uncertainty surrounding other assets.
Low Opportunity Cost
With uncertainty gripping global markets, low inflation rates helped exacerbate the flow of capital toward gold and related securities. As capital flowed out of stocks in China, the United States and Europe, low interest rates around the globe dampened demand for government debt securities. Early in 2016, interest rates remained at low levels after years of expansionary monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve announced intentions to slowly raise rates, other central banks were forced to cut further rates or otherwise forgo normalization. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank both pushed nominal interest rates into negative territory, which is a relatively extreme measure.
Falling equity prices and pressure from finance ministers around the world caused many to speculate that the Fed's normalization program would decelerate. Gold prices tend to plunge as the opportunity cost of holding gold rises, with high interest rates or equity appreciation coaxing investors from the perceived safety of gold assets. In 2016, low interest rates inhibited this effect, combining with fears over global equity fundamentals to push investors toward gold.
Inflation
When currencies falter, gold is often considered a natural store of value, and prices typically have an inverse relationship with currency strength. As inflation expectations rise, especially those of the US. dollar, gold prices usually rise as well. Global inflation has been sluggish, and the consensus outlook calls for modest inflation acceleration in coming years.
High unemployment and low capacity utilization have created disinflationary pressures in Europe, while the Bank of Japan was forced to offer negative interest rates in an effort to stimulate inflation. Nonetheless, core inflation in the US., which controls for the effects of food and energy prices, has increased steadily in recent months. Falling expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes contributed to rising inflation expectations. Global inflation rates will likely not be high enough in 2016 to cause a sustained gold rally, but expectations were adjusted enough in January and February to allow other factors to push gold higher.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031516/3-factors-driving-gold-prices-higher-2016-gld.asp