我們處在經濟增長的最後階段嗎？

 Dan Moskowitz  2016年3月25日

我們處在經濟增長的最後階段嗎？回答這個問題的第一個方式是明確的不是。這是從長遠的經濟週期角度回答的。你有沒有註意到？當經濟和股票市場興盛時，人們認為這永遠不會結束。而當經濟和股票市場蕭條時，人們覺得這一情況永遠都不會結束。在兩種情況下，人們會基於當時情況進行激烈爭論。這可能會關係到就業機會、央行政策、福利資金、個人債務水平、公司債務水平和油價等。這些名單有很多，但是永遠不會保持不變。

就短期而言，沒人知道接下來會發生什麼。這很大程度上與貨幣刺激與經濟實體相關，這將我們引入下一個階段。如果我們觀察接下來的幾年，情況可能會變得糟糕。我們無法判斷這將在何時發生，也不知道最終的催化因素是什麼。最重要的事實是全世界的經濟都在放緩。

經濟調查結果

美銀銀行全球調查部門最近的一份調查顯示59%的基金經理相信現在是經濟增長的最後階段，這是金融危機以來的最高比例。

全球所有行業的前景指數從一月的52.6下降到2月的50.6。讓人擔憂的不僅是下降，而且低於50將會出現收縮。報告還指出美國、歐元區、英國和日本的產出增長已經開始下降。如果你很慶幸沒有在名單中看到中國，請不要對這個第二大經濟體過分樂觀。據路透社報道，中國的服務行業開始放緩，這可能是制造業放緩導致的。

據最新報道美國是世界上唯一經濟增長的主要經濟體。這可能是真的，但是同時根據FactSet的報道，標準普爾500收入出現自金融危機以來最快的下跌速度。當你看到下面的美國國內數據，你會發現這一趨勢。

服務業

1月 53.2

2月49.7

制造業和服務業

1月53.2

2月50.0

非制造業

1月 53.5

2月 53.4

就業

1月 52.1

2月 49.7

股票沒有下跌的原因是糟糕的經濟數據使美聯儲更加溫和，這推動了股價的上漲。問題是這可能是一個人工推動。摩根大通的全球經濟主管 David Hensley似乎是這樣認為的。最近他曾說過：“2月的PMI調查進一步表明全球經濟在2016年第一季度的廣泛疲軟。”持這種觀點的不僅僅只有他一個人。

MKM Partners的首席經濟分析師和營銷策略師Michael Darda認為經濟增長正處於後期而經濟衰退正在接近。他建議採取預防和多樣化措施。

國際貨幣基金組織將2016年全球經濟增長率設定在3.4%，但是警告可能降低這一預期，這增加了人們的擔憂。該組織指出了下列風險：中國經濟增長放緩、美元強勢、地區政治緊張和全球再次出現避險情緒。

總結

雖然這一回升可能會持續，一些經濟學家和基金經理相信全球和美國經濟增長正在放緩。

Is This the Final Stage of Economic Growth?

By Dan Moskowitz | March 25, 2016

Are we in the final stages of economic growth? The first way to answer that question is a definitive no. This pertains to the economy being cyclical over the long haul. Have you ever noticed that when the economy and stock market are roaring, people think it will never end? And that when the economy and stock market are in shambles, people feel as though things will never turn around for the better? In both instances, strong arguments can be made based on current conditions. This might relate to job opportunities,central bank policies, entitlement funding, private debt levels, corporate debt levels, oil prices, etc. The list goes on and on. But things never stay the same.

As far as the near term is concerned, nobody knows what will happen next. This largely relates to monetary stimulus versus economic reality, which brings us to the next point. If we look at the next several years, it’s likely going to get ugly somewhere along the line. There is no telling when this will occur, or what the ultimate catalyst will be. The most important fact is that economies around the world are slowing. 

Economic Survey Results

A recent survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research found that 59% of fund managers believe this is the final stage of economic growth, the highest reading since thefinancial crisis.

The Global All Industry Outlook Index fell to 50.6 in February from 52.6 in January. Not only is the drop concerning, but anything below 50 indicates contraction. The survey also concluded that output growth has slowed in the United States, the Eurozone, Japan, the United Kingdom and Japan. If you didn’t notice China, don’t feel too optimistic about the second-largest economy in the world. According to Reuters, China’s service sector slowed, which potentially relates to the manufacturing slowdown in China spreading to the services sector. 

It has recently been reported that the United States is the only growing major economy in the world. That might be true but also, consider that according to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings are now falling at the fastest pace since the financial crisis. When you look at the readings for the following sectors on a domestic basis, you will notice a trend.

Services

January 53.2

February 49.7

Manufacturing + Services

January 53.2

February 50.0

Non-Manufacturing

January 53.5

February 53.4

Employment

January 52.1

February 49.7

The reason you don’t see stocks falling is because poor economic readings lead to the Federal Reserve being more dovish, which investors and traders like, pushing stocks higher. The danger is that these might be artificial moves. David Hensley, director of global economics for JPMorgan Chase & Co., seems to think that’s the case. One of his recent quotes: “FebruaryPMI surveys further highlight the broad-based weakness in global growth during the opening quarter of 2016.” Hensley is not alone.

Michael Darda, chief economist and marketing strategist at MKM Partners, believes that we’re late in the game and that a recession is approaching. He recommends getting defensive and diversified.

To add to these concerns, the IMF projects 3.4% global growth in 2016 but warned that it could cut that expectation. It cited the following risks: China slowdown, stronger U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions and renewed global risk aversion.

The Bottom Line

While this rally could continue, some economists and fund managers believe that global and domestic economic growth is slowing. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/032516/final-stage-economic-growth.asp