加拿大火情緩和 油價再度下跌

加拿大火災引發的石油產出危機已經過去，人們又開始擔憂供應過剩的問題，因此，週二亞洲市場的原油價格再度下跌。

加拿大亞伯達地區的大火導致2400棟建築被毀，是加拿大有史以來損失最大的自然災害。該地區大多數石油制造商都削減了原油產出，至少已有64.5萬桶/日的油砂生產由於這場大火而被迫中斷，這超過了加拿大每日產量的四分之一。消防官員表示，週日氣溫下降，火情已有所緩解。

紐約商品交易所六月交割的低硫輕質原油期貨的成交價為43.23美元，下跌了0.21美元。倫敦洲際交易所七月交割的佈倫特原油的成交價為43.73美元，上漲了0.09美元。

數據專家Genscape公司預測，美國最大的石油儲存樞紐俄克拉荷馬州庫欣的庫存將增加140萬桶，油價承受的壓力因而再度增加。分析家Platts推測，美國原油庫存將在本週增加30萬桶。

美國能源儲備局將在週三發佈準確數據，全球石油儲備定將再度增加，而石油輸出國組織四月的庫存極有可能也是增加的。OPEC的數據發佈日期暫定為星期五。

OM金融公司客戶經理Start Ive說道：“持有時間最長的倉位是從去年開始持有的西德州中質原油，當前的數據足以使這些長期持有者平倉。”

原油需求的不確定性也使得交易員們惴惴不安。今年四月，中國進口量較去年的預期驟減了10.9%，高於三月的7.6%。

SCI國際的能源分析家高健指出：“中國的原油需求依舊強勢，因為油價如此之低，中國的私人煉油廠便會不斷地增加進口配額。”

他補充道：“但是這個趨勢會持續多久是很難預測的，因為煉油的利潤空間正在逐漸減少，而且一些煉油廠計劃在後半年進行設備維修。”

中國私人煉油廠不斷增加產量，爭取將利潤最大化，因此地區產品價格的前景不甚理想。

到目前為止，這些私人煉油廠的產品大多銷往國內市場，但煉油的利潤空間越來越小，他們可能會將目光轉移至出口市場，這會使柴油市場的情況進一步惡化。

該公司在會議記錄中提到：“私人煉油廠會在何時湧入國際市場取決於原油進口量以及出口配額。我們相信，中國政府是不會限制出口的。”

Crude prices fall on Canada wildfire eases, data hints of inventory glut

Crude oil prices traded lower in Asian trade Tuesday as threats on oil output due to Canada’s wildfires have ebbed, rekindling concerns of a growing supply glut.

With about 2,400 structures burned to the ground, the fire in Alberta, Canada has been dubbed as the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. Given the proximity to the oil-sand industry, many oil producers in the area have reduced their crude-oil output, with at least 654,000 barrels a day now cut, more than a quarter of daily production. Fire officials said cooler temperatures has slowed the spread of the wildfires since Sunday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June CLM6, -0.09%  traded at $43.23 a barrel, down $0.21 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude LCON6, +0.39%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.09 to $43.73 a barrel.

Oil prices came under more pressure after private data forecasterGenscapeInc. said inventory at key U.S. delivery hub in Cushing, Okla. gained 1.4 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Platts estimate U.S. crude stocks to have increased 300,000 barrels in the latest week.

If the figures prove accurate when official U.S. Energy Department data are released Wednesday, it would add yet more oil to the global glut, especially at a time when production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to have increased in April. Official OPEC data is due Friday.

“The data was enough to spark profit taking as position data showed investors holding the most long positions in West Texas Intermediate since last year, while North Sea Brent contracts held are at near record levels,” saidStart Ive, a client manager at OM Financial.

Uncertainty over demand is also keeping traders in cautious mode. In April, China’s imports sank by a sharper-than-expected 10.9% from a year ago, steeper than the 7.6% drop in March. Even though the country remains thirsty for crude with April’s crude imports rising 7.6% on-year, the overall imports is worrisome, analysts said.

“For now, China’s crude demand will likely stay strong because private refiners are looking to max out their import quota while crude prices are still low,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

“But it is hard to gauge how long this rally will sustain because refining margin is slowly narrowing and some of the refiners are scheduled for maintenance later this year,” he added.

As Chinese private refiners, also known as teapots, ramp up their refining activities to capture the still-healthy refining margin, outlook on regional product prices darkens.

For now, these teapots are mainly selling products into the domestic market but with refining profits waning, it could compel the teapots to shift their focus to export, exacerbating the already weak diesel market, said research firm Jefferies.

 “How quickly teapots flood the market depends on how much crude import and refined product export quota would be granted. We believe the Chinese government would not restrain exports,” the firm said in a note.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-fall-as-canada-wildfire-eases-data-hints-of-inventory-glut-2016-05-10