亞洲交易時間週二早間，原油價格在一夜的上揚之後迅速回落。油價上漲是因為世界石油聯盟可能在九月重新召開凍產會議，而隨後的油價下跌則屬於見利抛售行為。
在紐約商品交易所，九月交付的輕質低硫原油期貨的成交價為每桶42.66美元，較上個交易日下跌了0.36美元。在倫敦洲際交易所，十月交付的佈倫特原油期貨為每桶44.99美元，下跌了0.4美元。
OPEC成員國卡特爾的能源部長默罕默德·薩利赫薩達在週一表示，十四國集團將在9月26日-28日召開非正式會議，會議地點為阿爾及利亞國際能源論壇。
薩達對原油市場十分看好，他認為2016年下半年的石油需求會很強勢，而全球石油供應卻會減少。
對2016年下半年原油需求預期的增加以及可行性的降低，讓分析家得出這樣的結論——他們認為熊市只是暫時的，油價會在年末繼續上漲。
凍產計劃最早出現在四月的多哈會議上，多個OPEC成員國想要重議此事。與此同時，沙特阿拉伯卻認為市場力量會重塑供需平衡狀態。伊朗也對凍產計劃表示反對，並表示會繼續生產原油直至恢複到制裁前的水平。
現如今，伊朗的產量已經攀升至每天360萬桶，比一月核限制時期的產量高出了近60萬桶。這樣下去不久就能達到每天400萬桶至420萬桶，這是伊朗官員可以接受的凍產產量。
某些分析家認為油價陷入困境已有兩年，如今連召開會議的消息都能給投資者帶來信心，讓他們忘記低迷的中國七月原油進口量——六個月以來的最低進口量。
花旗銀行能源期貨分析家Tim Evans說道：“市場願意把這種情況視為牛市的前兆，但這回他們可能要失算了。但我們不得不承認，如果得不到沙特的認同，凍產計劃的所有努力都是白搭。”
懷疑主義者認為這次會議不會有什麼實質性的結果，因為這些成員在過去幾個月油價極低的時期明明可以減產，卻都沒這樣做。
澳大利亞聯邦銀行大宗商品策略師Vivek Dhar指出：“他們不過是在紙上談兵。”
近期市場將會追蹤美國汽油和原油庫存的最新數據，普氏能源的分析家認為，二者的庫存量在上週預計減少了160萬桶和175萬桶。
上週的數據比2011年至2015年間的平均庫存減幅240萬桶少了27%。原油庫存比過去五年的平均水平高出了36.6%。
美國能源信息署的官方數據將在週三發佈。
在紐約商品交易所，九月交付的新配方汽油合約的成交價為每加侖1.3563美元，下跌了57個點。而九月交付的柴油價格則為1.3377美元，下跌了59個點。
Oil prices walk back from sharp rally with focus on U.S. data
Crude oil prices edged down Tuesday morning in Asia on profit-taking after a sharp rally overnight as investors were emboldened by the possibility that the world’s oil cartel may reconsider a production freeze at a meeting in late September.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU6, -0.63% traded at $42.66 a barrel, down $0.36, or 0.8%, in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.40, or 0.9%, to $44.99 a barrel.
Qatar’s energy minister, Mohammed bin Saleh al Sada, the president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Monday the 14-member group will hold an informal meeting Sept. 26-28 at the International Energy Forum in Algeria.
Read: Oil market déjà vu sets in as OPEC plans ‘informal’ meeting
Sada sounded a positive note about the crude-oil market, saying demand was expected to be strong in the second half of 2016, while the global petroleum supply would weaken.
Expectations for higher crude demand in the second half of 2016, coupled with a decrease in availability, are leading analysts to conclude the current bear market is only temporary, and oil prices will rise later in the year, he said.
Several OPEC members want to revive the idea of setting new limits on production — a subject raised but quashed in April when cartel members met in Doha. At the time, Saudi Arabia said market forces were helping to reset supply and demand back toward a rebalance. Iran also rejected the idea, saying it would continue to produce until it reaches the pre-sanction level.
Now, Iran’s production has crept back up to 3.6 million barrels a day, almost 600,000 barrels a day higher since world powers lifted economic restrictions over the country’s nuclear program in January. That brings production to within reach of 4 million-4.2 million barrels a day that Iranian officials said they would require before agreeing to a freeze.
Some analysts say that with prices in the doldrums for two years, just the suggestion of talks was enough for investors to shrug off disappointing China crude imports in July, China’s imports plunged to the lowest level in six months.
“The market seems willing enough to take this as a bullish development and perhaps this time will be different,” said Citi energy futures analyst Tim Evans. “But we note that without the support of Saudi Arabia all prior efforts at a production freeze amounted to nothing.”
Skeptics fear the meeting won’t result in any concrete actions, as these members could have reduced production when prices were lower in the past months, but chose not to.
“They talk more than they do,” saidVivek Dhar, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
In the near term, the market will be monitoring movements of U.S. gasoline and crude stocks movements, which likely shrunk last week by 1.6 million barrels and 1.75 million barrels, respectively, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts.
Such a decline in crude would be 27% short of the average 2.4-million barrel drop seen during this period during 2011-2015. Crude oil stocks were 36.6% above the five-year average through the last reporting period.
Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for September RBU6, -0.54% — the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 57 points to $1.3563 a gallon, while September diesel traded at $1.3377, 59 points lower.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-walk-back-from-sharp-rally-with-focus-on-us-data-2016-08-09