美國原油庫存增加 油價繼續下跌

亞洲交易時間週四早間，美國原油庫存量再度增加，沙特原油產出創歷史新高，原油價格也因此下跌。

上述兩個因素足以說明，雖然多地供應中斷，美國石油產量穩步減少，但全球仍處於供大於求的狀態。

在紐約商品交易所，九月交付的輕質低硫原油期貨的成交價為每桶41.5美元，下跌了0.5%。在倫敦洲際交易所，十月交付的佈倫特原油價格為每桶43.83美元，下跌了0.5%。

美國能源信息署發佈了截至8月5日的當週庫存數據，新增的106萬桶原油庫存使得油價一夜間驟跌。原油總庫存為5.236億桶，比去年同期的五年平均數據高出37%。

該數據表明美國市場供應過剩的情況正在加劇，因此利潤空間減少，原油需求降低。煉油廠使用率的同期數據降低了1.1%。

普氏能源分析中心的能源分析經理Anthony Starkey認為：“秋季的維修在即，煉油廠的開工率正在逐漸降低。”

此外，油價還受到《石油輸出國組織月度報告》的影響。報告指出，沙特阿拉伯上個月的石油產量為每天1067萬桶，而同期OPEC的日均輸出總量為3310萬桶。

夏天是沙特電力需求的高峰期，因此會增加原油產量來滿足制冷需求。但OPEC數據顯示，沙特的石油需要較去年同期有所下降，這說明沙特將更多的產量用於對外出口。

產量的增長說明OPEC的主要成員都以佔據市場份額為第一優先原則，且堅信低油價會摧毀非OPEC成員的高成本制造商，如：美國制造商。

OPEC成員計劃下個月在阿爾及利亞召開非正式會議。但是在長期的油價混亂中，增加產量意味著石油大亨們對凍產計劃不感興趣。

即使他們達成了凍產計劃，也不會對全球供應及油價產生影響，因為還有很多制造商在高速煉油。

花旗期貨分析家Tim Evans表示，沒有沙特的支援，凍產計劃很難成行。在四月初凍產計劃剛剛萌芽時，沙特曾表示支援，但卻在最後一刻改變了態度，因為伊朗拒絕控制石油產量。

限制產量雖會像第一季度那樣起到一時的作用，但這個計劃真的很難達成，執行起來也會困難重重。

交易員和分析家們會密切追蹤國際能源機構發佈的月報。

在紐約商品交易所，九月交付的新配方汽油合約的成交價為每加侖1.2959美元，下跌了55個點。而九月交付的柴油則下跌了65個點，成交價為1.3119美元。洲際交易所九月交付的汽油合約價格為每噸2.5美元，下跌了0.6%。

Oil extends losses after U.S. stockpile growth, record Saudi output

Crude-oil prices dropped more in early Asia trade Thursday, weighed down by the continuous growth in U.S. crude stocks and the record-high output by Saudi Arabia.

The combination of the two factors signals that, despite the multiple supply disruptions and the steady decline seen in U.S. production in recent months, the world is still very much oversupplied.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU6, -0.17%  traded at $41.50 a barrel, down $0.22, or 0.5%, in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude LCOV6, -0.16%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.22, or 0.5%, to $43.83 a barrel.

Oil prices fell overnight after the Energy Information Administration data showed a 1.06 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories in the week ended August 5, pushing total stocks to 523.6 million barrels and 37.7% above the five-year average for the same time last year, said analysts at S&P Global Platts.

The build reflects the growing glut of refined products in the U.S. market, which has led to lower margin and reduced demand for crude. Refinery-use rate fell 1.1% in the same week.

“The already slowing refinery runs and resultant builds in crude inventories is a precursor to what is expected in the fall when refiners enter maintenance,” said Anthony Starkey, energy analysis mangers at Platts Analytics’ Bentek Energy.

Prices were also hit by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries monthly report that indicated Saudi Arabia produced at a record-high rate last month by churning out 10.67 million barrels a day. Total OPEC daily production rose to 33.1 million barrels in the same month.

Saudi Arabia usually ramps up crude production during the summer to meet peak domestic demand for electricity for cooling purpose. However, OPEC’s report showed that the kingdom’s local demand in June decreased compared with a year earlier, suggesting the country had sent production higher in part to increase exports.

The upward trend also suggests that major cartel members are making maintaining market shares their priority and holding on to the tactic that lower oil prices will drive away non-OPEC high-cost producers, such as the U.S. frackers.

Increased production amid a persistent price rout suggests the heavyweights inside the group won’t be keen on a collective production freeze when they meet at an informal gathering next month on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria.

Even if a freeze pact is forged, it would make little difference to global supply and prices because many producers are pumping at top speed, analysts say.

Moreover, without the full backing of Saudi Arabia and its closest allies, the deal would never come to fruition, said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst. Saudi Arabia was a supporter of a production freeze when the proposal was first floated in April. But the kingdom had a last-minute change of heart when Iran refused to curb its output.

“The talk of limiting output may support the market for a time, much as it did in the first quarter of the year. But a deal seems pretty unlikely and enforcement problematic at any case,” he added.

Traders and analysts will be closely eyeing the monthly report by the International Energy Agency, slated for release today.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for September RBU6, -0.03%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 55 points to $1.2959 a gallon, while September diesel traded at $1.3119, 65 points lower. ICE gasoil for September contract was down $2.50 or 0.6% to $383.75 a metric ton.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-losses-after-us-stockpile-growth-record-saudi-output-2016-08-11