油價震盪 市場仍呈上升趨勢

亞洲交易時間週二早間，油價略有回升，交易員和投資者們一夜的投資推動了油價的上漲。

在紐約商品交易所，九月交付的輕質低硫原油的成交價為每桶45.48美元，較上一交易日下跌了0.6%。在倫敦洲際交易所，十月交付的佈倫特原油成交價為每桶48.07美元，下跌了0.6%。

市場對石油輸出國組織凍產計劃的預期在持續升溫，這為油價提供了一定的支撐。在兩大石油制造巨頭——沙特和俄羅斯表現出了對凍產計劃的支援後，牛市的情緒進一步加深了。

但很多分析家提出了反對意見，他們認為當前的石油生產速度已經達到了極致，凍產計劃很難對市場產生實質性的影響。還有一些分析家還提出了陰謀論，鑒於個別成員曾經的表現，OPEC可能會僞造一份協議。

OptionsXpress大宗商品分析家Aaron Lynch指出：“沙特表明態度是值得慶賀的，但是這種論調我們已經聽過了無數遍。”

凍產計劃最早出現在二月，當時卡塔爾、俄羅斯、沙特及委內瑞拉這四大原油制造商同意達成有條件的協議，將產量維持在一月的水平。會議是在美國原油價格跌至26.05美元的幾天後召開的，這一油價創下了十三年的最低記錄，已經超出了石油巨頭們的底線。

但是這項協議始終沒有達成，因為伊朗拒絕參與協議，沙特也在兩個月後改變了態度。

油價在二月份上漲了75%，但較2014年頂峰時期的100多美元相比仍是相去甚遠。

一些分析家仍然相信，不斷加劇的供應過剩會削弱石油巨頭的金庫，所以達成協議仍有希望。

山東SCI國際集團能源分析家高健指出：“很多石油制造商都處於馬力全開的狀態，他們幾乎沒有繼續提升的空間了，所以他們極有可能同意凍產計劃。”

而委內瑞拉、利比亞等小型制造商則會舉手歡迎，因為凍結產量的直接結果就是油價上升，這會為石油闆塊吸引到更多的投資。

OPEC月報顯示，委內瑞拉七月的石油產量為每天210萬桶，環比減少20%。利比亞每日生產30.4萬桶，環比下降21%。

短期來講，市場會密切關註美國能源信息署在週三發佈的美國原油庫存數據。普氏的全球調查顯示，上週美國原油庫存減少了20萬桶，汽油庫存則減少了180萬桶。

在紐約商品交易所，九月交付的新配方汽油合約的成交價為每加侖1.3948美元，下跌了59個點，九月交付的柴油則下跌了36個點，成交價為1.4463美元。

洲際交易所九月交付的汽油成交價為每噸423.5美元，較週一下跌了1美元。

Oil stumbles as investors cash in on gains, but sentiment still upbeat

Crude oil prices retreated slightly in Asia early Tuesday, as traders and investors cashed in on the strong rally overnight.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU6, -0.52%  traded at $45.48 a barrel, down $0.26, or 0.6% in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude LCOV6, -0.56%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.28, or 0.6%, to $48.07 a barrel.

Growing expectations that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would agree to a production freeze have supported prices since last week. The bullish sentiment was further heightened after the two largest oil producers — Saudi Arabia and Russia — indicated their support for such a limit.

Several analysts have, however, argued that a production cap at a time when producers are pumping at top speed would hardly take enough barrels off the market to make a material difference. Others have expressed skepticism that the 14-member bloc would be able to forge a consensus given the historical tension among some players.

“It is encouraging that Saudi Arabia has flagged its intention, but how many times have we heard the same rhetoric?” saidAaron Lynch, a commodities analyst at OptionsXpress.

The idea of a production freeze was pitched in February when four oil producers, namely Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, agreed to a conditional pact to freeze output at the January level. The meeting took place just days after U.S.-traded prices dipped to $26.05, a 13-year low, signalling prices had hit a bottom line for the heavyweight producers.

The pact was, however, never formalized after Saudi Arabia reversed its position two months later on Iran’s refusal to take part in the agreement.

Prices have risen around 75% since February, but are still sharply lower from the above-$100 level in mid-2014.

Still, some analysts believe that as the bulging global glut is starting to dent big producers’ coffers, the likelihood of a pact is quite likely.

“The fact that many oil producers are producing at full tilt makes it more likely they are more inclined to freeze in September because they have little spare capacity left to expand,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at the Shandong-basedSCIInternational.

Smaller producers, such as Venezuela and Libya, will welcome the gesture because a production freeze should boost prices, and higher prices could entice more investment into their struggling oil sectors, he added.

Venezuela’s production in July fell 20% on-month to 2.1 million barrels a day, while Libya saw a 21% drop to 304,000 barrels a day, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report based on secondary sources.

For the short term, the market will be watching the weekly U.S. crude inventories data by the American Petroleum Institute later today and by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. A S&P Global Platts survey estimates U.S. crude ebbed by 200,000 barrels last week, while gasoline stocks reduced by 1.8 million barrels.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for September RBU6, -0.36%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 59 points to $1.3948 a gallon, while September diesel traded at $1.4463, 36 points lower.

ICE gas oil for September changed hands at $423.50 a metric ton, up $1.00 from Monday’s settlement.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-stumbles-as-investors-cash-in-on-gains-but-sentiment-still-upbeat-2016-08-16