黃金分割的五個技巧

by Alan Farley翻譯：樹靜風止

Fibonacci jumped into the technical mainstream late in the bull market. Futures traders had it all to themselves until real-time software ported it over to the equity markets. Its popularity exploded as retail traders experimented with its arcane math and discovered its many virtues.

菲波納奇在牛市的後期一躍而成為技術主流。以前只是期貨交易員們使用這項技術，直到實時軟件技術出現在證券市場。散戶交易員們檢驗了它的神秘數學性並且發現了它的很多優點,，它從此成為了一種流行技術。

Fibonacci ratios describe the interaction between trend and countertrend markets -- 38%, 50% and 62% retracements form the primary pullback levels. Apply these percentages after a trend in either direction to predict the extent of the countertrend swing. Stretch a grid over the most obvious up or down wave, and see how percentages cross key price levels.

菲波納奇比率描述了市場趨勢和相反趨勢之間的關系——主要趨勢的38%，50%和62%折返。無論是那種市場方向，在一波趨勢過後使用這些百分比可以預測反向趨勢的擺動程度。在主要的向上趨勢或向下趨勢上畫出珊格線，觀察這些百分比如何穿越關鍵的價格水平。

Convergence between pattern and retracement can point to excellent trading opportunities. Keep in mind that retracements work poorly in a vacuum. Always examine highs, lows and moving averages to confirm the importance of a specific level.

模式和回撤的一致給了交易者很好的交易機會。記住，回撤在真空中效果會很差。經常檢查高點、低點、移動平均線來確定特定價格的重要性。

Discord between retracement and the underlying pattern generates noise instead of profit. Move on to a new chart when nothing lines up correctly. This divergence generates most of the whipsaw in a price chart. Alternatively, strong phasing between Fibonacci and pattern exposes highly predictive reversals at narrow price levels.

潛在的模式和回撤的不一致會產生噪聲而不是利潤。如果沒有東西能正確地排列起來，重新打開一張圖表。這種背離在圖表上通常會產生鋸齒。可能的結果是，一個狹幅波動價格水平下的菲波納奇和一些模式產生的強烈信號往往會產生反轉。

Lets look at five tricks to improve your Fibonacci skills. Add these twists and turns to your toolbox and apply them to your next trade. I promise theyll serve you very well in the years ahead.

讓我們看看5個策略來提高你的菲波納奇技巧。將這些價格扭曲和反轉放在你的工具箱中，並在下次趨勢中使用他們。我保證它們可以在今後的數年中幫助你。

First Rise/First Failure 第一次上升/第一次失敗

First Rise/First Failure marks the first 100% retracement of a trend within your time frame of interest. It provides an early reversal warning after a new high or low. The 100% retracement violates the major price direction and terminates the trend it corrects. From this level, the old trend can reestablish itself if it breaks through the old 38% level. More often, traders will use that level to enter low-risk positions against the old trend.

在你喜歡的時間框圖上第一次上升/第一次失敗標志了第一個100%回撤。出現了新高或者新低後，它給出了一個早期的反轉警告。100%回撤違背了主要的價格方向，終結了它所修正的那個趨勢。從這個價格水平開始，如果價格穿越舊的38%水平，可能重新建立老的趨勢。跟多的情況是，交易者使用這個價格水平建立與原有趨勢相反的低風險頭寸。

by Alan Farley翻譯：樹靜風止

Fibonacci jumped into the technical mainstream late in the bull market. Futures traders had it all to themselves until real-time software ported it over to the equity markets. Its popularity exploded as retail traders experimented with its arcane math and discovered its many virtues.

菲波納奇在牛市的後期一躍而成為技術主流。以前只是期貨交易員們使用這項技術，直到實時軟件技術出現在證券市場。散戶交易員們檢驗了它的神秘數學性並且發現了它的很多優點,，它從此成為了一種流行技術。

Fibonacci ratios describe the interaction between trend and countertrend markets -- 38%, 50% and 62% retracements form the primary pullback levels. Apply these percentages after a trend in either direction to predict the extent of the countertrend swing. Stretch a grid over the most obvious up or down wave, and see how percentages cross key price levels.

菲波納奇比率描述了市場趨勢和相反趨勢之間的關系——主要趨勢的38%，50%和62%折返。無論是那種市場方向，在一波趨勢過後使用這些百分比可以預測反向趨勢的擺動程度。在主要的向上趨勢或向下趨勢上畫出珊格線，觀察這些百分比如何穿越關鍵的價格水平。

Convergence between pattern and retracement can point to excellent trading opportunities. Keep in mind that retracements work poorly in a vacuum. Always examine highs, lows and moving averages to confirm the importance of a specific level.

模式和回撤的一致給了交易者很好的交易機會。記住，回撤在真空中效果會很差。經常檢查高點、低點、移動平均線來確定特定價格的重要性。

Discord between retracement and the underlying pattern generates noise instead of profit. Move on to a new chart when nothing lines up correctly. This divergence generates most of the whipsaw in a price chart. Alternatively, strong phasing between Fibonacci and pattern exposes highly predictive reversals at narrow price levels.

潛在的模式和回撤的不一致會產生噪聲而不是利潤。如果沒有東西能正確地排列起來，重新打開一張圖表。這種背離在圖表上通常會產生鋸齒。可能的結果是，一個狹幅波動價格水平下的菲波納奇和一些模式產生的強烈信號往往會產生反轉。

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