美國經濟的嚴重失衡

保羅•沃爾克，美聯儲前主席（1979 - 1987），2005年2月在斯坦福大學做了關於經濟政策研究的演講，強調了美國經濟的嚴重失衡：
1、 個人儲蓄幾乎完全消失;
2、 消費者購買房屋的價格在不斷提高;
3、 使用住房權益償還個人不斷增長的債務水平;
4、 唯一積極的是企業正在重新建設自己的資金儲備;
5、 但這是遠不能抵消美聯儲巨大的財政赤字。

實際上，美國正在超前消費和投資其產出的6％，長期來看，這是不可持續的。

如何實現國家的收支平衡？美國的財政赤字每天都會被多達20億美元的海外資產所填充，美元作為全球性貨幣被投資者認為是資金安全的避風港。近期一些經濟體，尤其是中國和日本的央行，出現了一個令人不安的轉變——取代私人資本。美國市場的活躍符合它們的利益，因為它們的出口都或多或少的依賴於美國。問題是，正如沃爾克所指出的，美國不願意解決這些問題：“最後能做的只是歎息——唉，為時已晚。”

那麼美國將如何解決這個問題？
1、 說服中國和別的亞洲主要經濟體允許其貨幣對美元大幅升值；
2、 鼓勵日本和歐洲國家解決國内需求增長的結構性障礙，以刺激國内需求的增長；
3、 採取強硬措施提高個人儲蓄率，從而減少對進口的需求。

美聯儲前任主席呼籲大家樹立起資金和財政的強烈意識。如果美國不在恰當時機解決經濟失衡問題，那麼，政府只能在金融危機之時被迫處理這個問題。公衆對於美國資本市場發展的信心早晚會衰退、海外的投資者或央行也會厭倦於不斷滿足美元的欲望。不論哪種情況的發生，美國經濟必然崩潰，並將沒有能力處理突發事件。

Cause for Concern: Serious imbalances in the US economy
Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979 - 1987), in his February 2005 address to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, highlighted serious imbalances in the US economy:
• personal savings have almost completely disappeared;
• consumers are buying housing at ever increasing prices;
• and using equity in their homes to fund rising levels of personal debt;
• the only positive is that businesses are re-building their reserves;
• but this is more than offset by the huge federal deficit.
In effect, the nation is consuming and investing 6% more than it produces. This is unsustainable in the long term.
How does the country balance its books? The deficit is funded by a huge influx of capital from offshore investors; to the tune of $2billion per working day. The US is seen as a safe haven and the dollar is the closest there is to an international currency. Lately there has been a disturbing shift with central banks, especially China and Japan, replacing private capital. It is in the interest of these economies that the US market remain buoyant, as they are to some extent dependant on their exports to the US.
The problem, as Volcker points out, is that there is a lack of willingness to tackle these issues: "What can be left till later usually is -- and then alas, it's too late".
How can the problem be solved?
1. Persuade China and other major Asian economies to permit a substantial appreciation of their currencies against the dollar;
2. Encourage Japan and Europe to deal with structural obstacles to domestic growth and to stimulate their domestic markets; and
3. Introduce measures to forcibly increase the rate of personal savings, thereby reducing demand for imported goods.
The former Fed chairman called for a strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline. If the imbalances are not tackled in good time the government will sooner or later be forced to face them during a financial crisis. Confidence in US capital markets may fade or offshore investors and central banks may decide that they have had their fill of the dollar. In either case the economy is ill-equipped to deal with unforeseen events.

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供，

本文來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/cause_for_concern.php