感謝Aubie Baltin的授權轉載。雖然我們高度重視作者的分析，但我們不一定同意作者作出的一切結論/預測。作為讀者，我們應進行自己的研究。
在明智的讨論利率之前，我們首先要定義一下我們讨論的是什麼，因為媒體的主流言論或是華爾街的分析師似乎都不明白利率是什麼，有什麼作用：電視屏幕上不斷遊說的經濟學家似乎也不知道利率的主要功能，那麼他們怎麼會知道是該提高或降低利率呢？
什麼是利率？
利率只是形容價格的另外一個詞。利率是借款的價格，並且應該像別的商品、服務價格一樣通過供求關系被確定下來。
然而，和別的商品或服務不同的是，利率和資金並不是在市場上自由運作的。利率和資金的供給受到美聯儲的控制。美聯儲通過公開市場操作（買賣國債）、改變其存儲在銀行的資金量（直接影響銀行的借貸能力）來控制銀行系統的資金量（供給量）。同時，美聯儲也通過古老而時尚的方法供給資金——印刷紙幣。
利率的作用有哪些？
1、利率決定人們儲蓄或消費的傾向：當利率被操控（美聯儲），它影響了人們是否原因消費的程度。如果利率被調控得過低，像現在的一樣，人們就不願意存儲資金。當利率變為負值（低於通貨膨脹率），也就意味銀行付給人們利息，促使人們借貸。這樣一來，借貸量和風險都會猛增。相反的，如果利率很高，比如80年代早期，人們會放棄當前消費並把資金存儲在銀行以獲得高額利息回報。
2、在高利率的情況下，人們對於資金的需求就會非常低。人們迫不及待的存儲自己的每一分錢，以換取高額的利息。然而，當利率低的時候，人們就會傾向於持有資金，因為1%或2%的利率不足以人們為之放棄任何消費。
3、利率水平在很大程度上影響資金的週轉速度，進而影響資金的供給量計算。當利率不在正常的範圍内，美聯儲將很難計算資金的週轉速度。最後，美聯儲會陷入利率難題，因為自己也無法確定資金真實的供給量是多少。
4、根據投資回報率，利率也決定了應該進行何種投資。當利率過低，很多投資風險將會產生，因為經濟的一絲衰退迹象將會使這些可憐的投資失敗，或在利率最終回升之後被迫破產。這就是商業週期背後的主要原因。經濟中的不均衡（資源浪費）在經濟恢複穩定之前必須被清算，這樣被浪費的資源才能在下一輪經濟增長中被利用。
5、中性利率既不刺激也不阻礙經濟的發展。格林斯潘和伯南克遇到了一個難題：不知道這個利率具體是什麼數值。之前，這個利率被認為是比通貨膨脹利率高1.5%~3%。（根據最新的消費者物價指數5%，貼現率至少應該為6.5%）。在過去，美聯儲只在經濟發展極端的時候才會操縱利率。自由市場的交互作用可以實現利率的自然平衡。可是現在，美國居民儲備幾乎為零、物價指數和利率被過度操控，美聯儲對中性利率的數值一點線索都沒有。
6、當銀行法定儲備不足時，便需要以貼現率從沒聯儲貸款。美聯儲成立的最初目的就是充當最後借款人的作用，為銀行提供足夠的流通性。貼現率曾是一個處罰性利率：該利率比聯邦基金利率略高（銀行之間的為了滿足隔夜存款儲備金要求的借款利率）。但現在，貼現率高於聯邦基金利率，大大的降低了銀行的資金成本：銀行需要付給存款者很低的利率。因此，銀行可以大量的向美聯儲借款，而不需要擔心需求的增加會使利率升高，銀行憑空創造貨幣的能力也大幅增加：不需要擔心供求關系影響利率。這打破了自由市場的利率自我調節功能，並促成了套利交易的產生。這樣一來，聯邦政府完全失去了對銀行和貨幣供給的控制能力。這直接影響到證券、股票市場和房地產市場泡沫的產生，很有可能在15年後達到頂峰並使美國陷入經濟危機。
很長一段時間以來，盡管貸款需求和17¼％折現率的不斷增加，但是長期貸款利率由於套利交易的原因並沒有升高，因而反映市場的真實狀況。
美聯儲的困境
美聯儲主席伯南克和前任主席格林斯潘，都提出了短期利率和長期利率差之間的難題。在2004年1月7日，10年國債的利率是4.4%，低於6月份4.6%的長期利率，而聯邦基金利率僅為1%。他們指責導致聯邦基金利率和長期利率差的神秘力量。然而，仔細觀察後可以發現，根本就不存在神秘力量，所謂的神秘力量只是日本央行和美聯儲寬松的貨幣政策。
經濟中最重要的是資金供給量，而不是所說的聯邦利率。例如，為了維持經濟快速發展過程中的既定利率，美聯儲必須不斷的向社會註入資金以免聯邦基金利率高於既定利率。然而，這卻導致了長期利率的降低。如果美國經濟進入一段時間疲軟期，相反的情況將會發生。最終，美聯儲的一系列措施只會使經濟惡化，而不是抑制經濟波動。自從2004年6月，盡管聯邦基金利率從1%提高到5¼％，但實際上，美聯儲正大量的向經濟中投入資金，並導致了負收益曲線的產生。雖然美聯儲一直口氣強硬，但是實際上扮演的是第五大街的一個無精打採的步行者形象。
時間的滞後性
似乎沒有人意識到，每當美聯儲或政府有任何的政策變化，不論是稅收，貨幣供應量或是提高郵件，總會存在時間滞後性。自由市場需要時間把變化傳遞給每一個參與者。美聯儲的基金政策變化和由此帶來的工業增產的平均估計時間是12~36個月。因此，雖然美聯儲在2004年6月採取貨幣緊縮政策，但是之前的寬松貨幣政策的影響一直持續了30個月。因此，盡管長期利率增加¼ %，工業生產增長率一直穩定增加到2007年。有利於經濟發展的寬松的貨幣政策，不利於聯邦基金利率的穩定。因此，美聯儲一直通過增加貨幣供給來防止聯邦基金利率高於既定利率。這種貨幣政策不利於經濟的長期增長，同時也阻礙了長期利率的升高。
通貨膨脹
米爾頓•弗裡德曼通認為貨膨脹任何時候都是一種貨幣現象。如果你從1994年以後就開始以比經濟增長高10%的速度發行貨幣，那麼通貨膨脹必然發生。它首先出現在證券市場，隨後出現在股票市場，最後影響房地產市場。如果世界經濟充斥著貨幣，那麼這最終會影響商品價格，企業收購、消費物價指數（CPI），並造成金價和白銀的價格暴漲。盡管政府努力的說服大家（通過巧妙的操控CPI）沒有發生通貨膨脹，但是通貨膨脹已經顯露出醜惡的嘴臉，不久的將來，我們就會看到通貨膨脹的真實水平。幸運的是，不像別的政治家那樣專註於過去，伯南克更關註的是未來將會發生什麼。
總結
在我看來，伯南克可能是美聯儲唯一的一個意識到，避免通貨膨脹爆發的唯一方法是把利率提升到前所未有的高水平：即使這將帶來經濟下滑。無論華爾街或是政治家反應如何，他知道經濟不會在相當長一段時間内維持高增長，通貨膨脹必然發生。他意識到，無論是美國還是世界的經濟都已失去平衡，並處於歷史以來（包括1929年經濟危機）最大的經濟泡沫中。他意識到我們唯一的希望就是通過溫和的放緩經濟的發展來避免世界性的股票，證券和房地產市場的經濟危機。
他和世界上僅有的幾個人意識到，降息，尤其是提高貸款標準情況下，不會挽救房地產市場，只會導致經濟大蕭條。美元體系的破裂將會影響整個世界經濟，這將是毀滅性的。他深知利率政策通常滞後18個月，並最終將導致經濟蕭條，而如果不這麼做的話，經濟有可能在接下來的1~3個月就可能衰退。我們希望美聯儲不要像以前一樣因政策的滞後性把問題擴大化，從而無法實現自己的既定目標。
同時，2004年6月份提高的利率，最終會影響長期利率並瓦解由格林斯潘的寬松貨幣帶來的股票、證券和房地產市場泡沫。在經濟即將崩潰的邊緣發揮調控作用，並讓市場自我糾正經濟發展的不平衡。
格林斯潘清楚的知道經濟發展得越繁榮，泡沫破裂的危害性也就越大：他的目標是把必將發生的經濟危機推後到下一任主席任期内，以此來彰顯他對美國經濟的貢獻。在卸任之前，他也試著提高利率，使經濟保持在不景氣的狀態，從而避免經濟危機的發生：不過該來的總會到來。起初與2001年一樣，採取的措施有限且不及時。在2001年，我們談論聯合政府、利用大規模的財政盈餘來減少稅收徵收，從而抑制經濟衰退局面。但這次，美國面臨的不僅是“軍事和經濟並重”，而且是巨大的貿易和赤字並存。現在民主黨控制著國會，意味著以後將不會通過減稅來挽救經濟危機。一個迫在眉睫的更大危險是，正如國會談論的那樣，我們即將面臨稅收的提高，而這將會有悖於新政的相關政策。
讓我們祈禱我的猜測是對的，但願伯南克聰明和幸運並存。因為只有他才能帶領我們避免巨大的金融災難。
INTEREST RATES, RECESSION OR DEPRESSION?
Reproduced with kind permission from Aubie Baltin. Whilst we have high regard for the author's analysis we do not necessarily agree with all conclusions/projections made. Readers are urged to conduct their own research.
The right man in the right place at the right time
Before we can even begin to discuss interest rates intelligently, we must first define what it is that we are actually talking about, since it appears that all the talking Media Heads and Wall Street analysts don’t seem to understand what interest rates are or how they work: The constant barrage of economists parading across our TV screens don’t seem to know what interest rate’s primary functions are, so how can they know whether to raise them or not?
WHAT ARE INTEREST RATES?
#1 Interest rate is just another word for price. It is the price to borrow money and its price is supposed to be determined exactly the same way as the price of any other commodity, product or service is - through the interaction of supply and demand.
#2 However, unlike every other product, commodity or service, interest rates and money do not operate in a Free Market. Interest rates and the supply of money are manipulated (controlled) by the Fed. They do this by controlling the amount (supply) of money that is available in the banking system through their Open Market Operations (buying & selling treasury bonds in the open market) and by changing their deposits that they hold with their individual member banks, directly affecting their reserves and thus their ability to lend. They also increase the money supply the good old fashioned way, by printing it.
WHAT ARE THE FUNCTIONS OF INTEREST RATES?
#1 Interest rates determine the propensity of people to either save or consume: When interest rates are manipulated (by the Fed), it influences the degree that people are willing to defer present consumption, i.e. save. If interest rates are manipulated too low, like they are now, people are no longer willing to save. When the interest rate becomes negative (the interest rate is lower than the inflation rate) people, since they are now being paid to go into debt, take on excessive debt as well as excessive risk because that is exactly what they are being paid to do. Conversely, when interest rates are high, such as in the early 80’s, people were willing to forego current consumption in order to avail themselves of the ultra high interest rates and we ended up having high saving rates.
#2 When interest rates are high, the demand for cash is extremely low. People can’t wait to deposit every cent that they can spare so as to earn that high rate of interest. However when rates are low, the propensity to hold cash is very high because at a 1% or 2% interest there is not much to be forgone by keeping extra cash in your pockets.
#3 The Velocity of money (how many times the money supply turns over during the year) and therefore the calculation of the money supply itself is greatly affected by the level of interest rates. When rates are outside the normal range, the FED cannot calculate the velocity until long after the fact and thus they lose track of what the money supply really is and its effect on the economy, leading to the interest rate conundrum.
#4 Interest rates also determine which investments should or should not be made, according to the investment’s expected rates of return. When interest rates are manipulated too low, a great many investments and risks are undertaken that should not have been, because these poor investments will fail at the first signs of weakness in the economy or be forced into bankruptcy with the eventual return to rising interest rates. This is the main underlying cause behind the business cycle. The imbalances (wasted resources) in the economy must be liquidated before the economy can stabilize enough so that the misused scarce resources become available for the next growth phase.
#5 A neutral rate of interest is the rate that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy. Greenspan was and Bernanke is in a conundrum as to what that rate is or should be. Previously, that rate was thought to be 1.5% to 3% over the inflation rate. (According to the latest CPI report (5%) the Discount Rate should be at least 6.5%.) In the past, when the Fed did not manipulate the rates except at the extremes, the market was able to determine what that rate should be through the interactions of the Free Market. But today with US savings nearly zero and the CPI and interest rates being highly manipulated, the Fed is unable to measure the Velocity of Money and with negative interest rates, the Fed does not have a clue as what the neutral rate should be.
#6 The Discount Rate is the rate that the Fed charges Banks who need to borrow money from the Fed to meet their reserve requirements. The FED was originally created to be “the Lender of Last Resort”, avoiding bank runs and liquidity squeezes. The Discount Rate charged used to be a Punitive Rate; a rate that was somewhat above the Fed Funds Rates (the rate at which Banks lend to each other in order to meet their overnight reserve requirements). But today, the discount rate is above the Fed Funds rate, drastically lowering the banks’ cost of money and reducing the amount of interest they are willing to pay for deposits: so that now massive amounts of money are being borrowed from the FED without having to worry about the excess demand increasing interest rates, greatly increasing the banks’ ability to create money out of thin air: Completely negating the supply/demand function in setting interest rates. This break down in the function of a free market has led to the creation of “The Carry Trade.” In so doing, the Fed has completely lost control over the banks and near banks’ (FNM, FRE, GE, GMAC etc.) ability to create money and have therefore lost control over the money supply. This has led directly to the creation of the Stock and Bond Market Bubbles as well as to the Real Estate Bubble that has, after 15 years, most probably topped out and is in the process of rolling over into a crash.
For a long time now, regardless of the ever increasing demand for loans and the seventeen ¼% Discount Rate increases, Long Term rates, because of the ongoing Carry trades, refuse to go up and reflect the true conditions of the market.
THE FED’S CONUNDRUM
Fed Chairman Bernanke like Greenspan before him once again raised the conundrum of the divergence between short term and long term rates. At the end of Jan 07, the yield on the 10-year Treasury-Note stood at 4.4% still below the 4.6% rate in June of 2004, the year when the Fed funds rate was only 1%. Bernanke like Greenspan before him blames some mysterious 'pressures' for the divergence between the Federal funds rate and long-term rates. However careful examination shows that there is no mystery. The so called mysterious pressure is in fact the natural outcome of the BOJ and the Fed's own easy money policies.
When it comes to the economy, what matters most is the availability of money and not the purported interest rate stance of the Fed. For example, in order to maintain a given interest rate target in the midst of a strong economy, the Fed is forced to push more and more money into the system to prevent the Fed funds rate from rising above its targeted rate. This in turn causes long term rates to fall. The opposite will happen should the economy go through a period of weakness. Since they are always behind the curve, they end up exacerbating the problem rather than dampening the fluctuations. Since June 2004, despite raising the Fed-funds rate from 1% to 5 ¼%, the Fed has actually hiked the pace of pumping money into the system, creating a negative yield curve. In short, the Fed has been talking tough while acting like a very loose $5 street walker.
TIME LAGS:
Nobody seems to realize that there are always time lags whenever there are any changes in FED or Government policy, whether they be Taxes, Money Supply or even High Oil prices or ??? . It takes time for the Free Market to send its signals through to every participant and it then takes time for every participant to react. The estimated average time lag between changes in the Fed Funds policies and the growth momentum of industrial production is on average 12 to 36 months. Hence, at the same time as the FED’S attempted tighter stance (beginning June 2004), the effect of the previous and continuing loose money stance was still in force and continuing its influence for the following 30 months. So in spite of their regular ¼ % increases, the yearly rate of growth of industrial production stayed strong into 2007. However the strong economic activity made possible by its loose money policy, had made the FED Funds rate targets unsustainable—so the Fed had to continue to increase the money supply to prevent the Fed Funds rate from overshooting their stated targets. This monetary pumping has thus far prevented the growth momentum of the economy from slowing, also preventing any meaningful rise in long-term interest rates.
INFLATION:
According to Milton Friedman, inflation is at all times a monetary phenomenon. If you keep printing money (beginning in 1994) at a rate that is 10% a year above the economy’s real rate of growth, inflation must eventually ensue and it has. It first showed up in the stock market, then found its way into the Bond market and eventually into Real Estate. Now that the world economy is awash in Fiat cash, it’s finally finding its way into commodities, takeovers and corporate buyouts. Now with nothing much left to inflate, the money is finally finding its way into the CPI. Witness the price explosion of Gold and Silver: Even though the government has thus far managed to convince everyone (through their ingenious manipulation of the CPI) that there was and is no inflation, Nevertheless, inflation has already begun to rear its ugly face and it won’t be much longer before we see just how high inflation really is. Bernanke, to his credit, is now looking to the future while the rest of our esteemed talking heads are still focusing on their rear view mirror.
CONCLUSION
THE RIGHT MAN IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME
In my opinion, Bernanke is possibly the only man at the Fed who realizes that he has no other choice but to push interest rates even higher than most would now even dream of in order to try and head off an explosion in inflation: Even if it’s in the face of the economy’s growth momentum starting to trend down. Like it or not and despite what Wall Street and the politicians want, he knows that the economy cannot continue growing above trend for any more sizeable length of time without going into rampant inflation. He realizes that both the USA’s and the world’s economies are now more out of balance and are in the biggest bubble mode than in 1929 or any other time in world history. He realizes (at least I hope he does) that our only HOPE is to engineer a recession, hopefully it will only be a mild one, so as to avoid a combined Stock, Bond, Real Estate and Take-over CRASH, which would lead to a world wide depression.
He and only a few other people in the world realize that cutting interest rates now, especially in the face of tightening lending standards, would not only do nothing to save the real estate market, but would actually bring on the depression by causing the US Dollar to tank. A crashing dollar would set the world’s financial system on it ear; the results of which would be devastating. He knows full well the lag effect of the last 18 months of interest rate policies will eventually end up setting in motion a depressing effect on economic activity which will begin to take effect, more than likely, within the next 1 to 3 months if it has not already done so. Let us hope that the FED, because of the lag effect will NOT, as they always have in the past, doesn’t overshoot their targets and exacerbate the problem that they themselves have created.
In the meantime, the lag effect of the higher interest rate policies since June 2004 will eventually finding its way into rising long term rates, undermining the stock, bond and real estate markets that sprang up on the back of Greenspan’s FED ultra loose monetary policy, setting in motion a much needed controlled economic slowdown instead of a Bust, giving the economy a chance to self correct its huge imbalances.
Greenspan realized full well that the bigger the boom the bigger the inevitable bust: His main objective was to push the time of the inevitable crash into the next Chairman’s term and thus preserve his legacy. To give him his due, he was also trying to raise interest rates high enough before Bernanke finally took over so that the FED would then have some ammunition to hopefully slow down the crash and keep it in only a Recession mode.: However “IT” will be, when “IT” comes, at first similar to 2001, too little and too late. In 2001, we were sitting on projected massive budget surpluses and unified government so Bush was able to get massive tax cuts passed and succeeded in stopping the recession in its tracts; but this time around the US is not only in a “Guns and Butter Economy” but with both massive trade and budget deficits instead. With the Democrats now in control of Congress, there will be NO new tax cuts coming to save the day and stop the Crash. A looming and even bigger danger is that we may actually face tax increases and a return to job destroying NEW DEAL policies which are even now being bandied about in Congress.
Let us pray that I’m right and Bernanke is not only smart but lucky as well, he is our only chance to prevent a major financial catastrophe.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供。
文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/interest_rates_recession_depression.php