1988年歐奈爾在《如何在市場中獲利》一書首次對這一形態的分析。帶柄杯子形態的形成需要長達數週。
帶柄杯子形態在第一輪上升趨勢之後,會繼續形成第二輪的上升趨勢。帶柄杯子形態也是上升三角形態的一種。杯子形態的形成至少需要七週時間,一些甚至會達到一年。杯柄的形成時間為2週和幾個月不等。
舉例:
1998~1999年的兩個頭肩頂形態:
1. 杯子的起點從一個新高[1]處開始;
2. 在價格從[1]處的高度下降了50%左右,這就是杯子形態的高度,杯柄高度通常是該高度的10%~30%。
3. 隨後第二處高峰在[3]處形成,比[1]處稍低。
4. 當杯柄高度突破[3]處高度就表示杯柄形態的完成。杯柄應該在杯子形態的上半部分。杯柄的確認是為以後的突破阻力做準備。
5. 隨著帶柄杯子形態的結束,[5]處出現了一個小的帶柄杯子形態。[5]處的形態隨著杯柄突破$4.00而完成。交易量在杯柄的短暫積聚之後,價格突破阻力大幅上升。.
需要避免的形態:
• 杯底呈“V”型。因為只有柔和的U型才能證明底部有效的支撐能力。
• 杯柄太深:杯柄的高度應該在杯子形態的上半部分。
交易信號
在杯柄的突破處做多,並在最近的地點處設置止損。
舉例:
1. 帶柄杯子形態的形成;
2. 杯子形態的結束和杯柄的開始形成;
3. 在[3]處突破[2]處的高點後做多;
4. 在杯柄的低點設置止損。
Cup and Handle
Cup and handle patterns were first identified by William J O'Neil in his book How To Make Money In Stocks. The cup and handle is a longer term continuation pattern, normally observed on weekly charts.
The cup and handle forms as an intermediate/secondary cycle correction before the primary cycle resumes its up-trend. The pattern is a form of (ascending) triangle.
The cup pattern should take a minimum of 7 weeks to form. There is no upper limit with some patterns taking as long as a year. The handle may form over one or two weeks but may also take several months.
EXAMPLE
Newcrest Mining Limited (Australia) exhibits 2 cup and handle patterns over 1998/1999.
6. The cup commences with a new peak [1], formed after a strong up-trend.
7. A secondary correction occurs, with price falling +/- 50% from the peak at [1]. This is high - cup and handle corrections normally vary between 10% and 30%.
8. The stock then forms a second peak at [3], slightly lower than the first.
9. The handle is completed [4] when price breaks above the intervening peak [3]. The handle should form in the top half of the cup pattern, with volume contracting as the trough forms and then expanding on the breakout.
10. A smaller cup and handle pattern follows with the cup completed at [5] and the handle completed by the subsequent breakout above $4.00. Again, observe how volume contracts as the handle forms and then rises sharply at the breakout.
Patterns to avoid:
• "Cups" with a sharp "V" bottom. The more "U" shaped the cup bottom is, the stronger the signal.
• Handles which are too deep. The handle should form in the top half of the cup pattern.
Volume Confirmation
Volume should contract as the handle forms and then expand on the breakout.
Trading Signals
Go long at the breakout from the handle pattern with a stop below the most recent low in the handle pattern.
EXAMPLE
United Energy Limited (Australia) shows a cup and handle pattern.
5. Start of the cup pattern.
6. The intervening peak completes the "cup" and starts the "handle".
7. Go long at the breakout [3] above the high of [2].
8. Place a stop-loss below the most recent low in the handle pattern.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
原文地址:http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/cup_and_handle.php