圖表形態

圖表形態可以出現在各種各樣的時間框架中。你可以在日線圖的幾個小時內或者長達幾個月的時間框架中看到頭肩頂形態。

圖表形態由支撐阻力位和趨勢線組成。我們主要關註圖表形態的支撐和阻力位，因為它們有完整的理論基础。

批評者認為，圖表形態是基於隨機數據的，且在隨機數據中表現顯著。如果數據沒有趨勢性，那麼圖表形態存在的意義是什麼？

1. 返回到最大的時間框架中：道瓊斯工業平均指數始於1896年3月份，40的水平，而今天該指數位於10，000水平線之上——一個多世紀的穩定上升趨勢。這數據顯然不是隨機的。

2. 你或許可以在隨機數據中看到頭肩頂形態，但是你不會看到阻力和支撐位。外匯市場的研究表明，市場中有限的訂單不是雜亂分佈的，而是集中在支撐和阻力位（整數價位）：請參照奧斯勒的《外匯訂單和動態匯率：成功技術分析解析》

3. 美國普渡大學的厄爾•戴維斯教授對各種點數圖形成的實驗研究表明，點數圖可以在牛市的時候實現70％和90％的盈利，在熊市時的盈利概率在80％和90％之間。託馬斯•多西在1965年通過研究點數圖得出：盈利訂單的平均收益是非盈利訂單平均損失的2~3倍。

圖表形態出現在各種圖表類型中：

•點數圖在預測價格走勢方面作用突出；

•等量成交線在成交量圖中作用理想。

•同樣的圖表形態也可應用於動量指標、非趨勢價格擺動指標（DPO）、MACD指標，並以類似的方式進行交易。

Chart Patterns

Chart patterns may occur in various time frames. You may find a head and shoulders pattern formed over several hours during a day, or over several months.
Patterns are formed by support and resistance levels and by trendlines. We concentrate on the patterns formed by support and resistance levels as these tend to have a sounder conceptual base.
A criticism of patterns is that they are also evident in random data, charts generated using random numbers. If the patterns appear in data where there is no trend then what is their significance?
1. Go back to the largest possible time frame: the Dow Industrial Average commenced in May 1896 at a level of 40, today the index stands at more than 10,000 - a steady up-trend for more than a century. The data is definitely not random.
2. You may observe head and shoulders and similar patterns in random data, but you will not observe support and resistance levels. Studies of foreign exchange markets have shown that limit orders are not scattered randomly in the market, but are clustered around support and resistance at round numbers: see Currency Orders and Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Explaining the Success of Technical Analysis by C Osler.
3. Empirical tests carried out on various point and figure chart formations, by Professor Earl Davis of Purdue University were profitable between 70 and 90 per cent of the time in bull markets and between 80 and 90 per cent in bear markets. Average gains (on profitable trades) were 2 to 3 times as large as average losses (on unprofitable trades). Thomas Dorsey describes the results of the 1965 study in Point & Figure Charting, including which formations had the highest success rates.
Chart patterns appear on all the various Chart Types:
• Point & Figure charts are especially useful in identifying price patterns; and
• Equivolume is ideal for identifying Volume Patterns;
• The same patterns are also be found on Momentum, Detrended Price Oscillator andMACD indicators and can be traded in a similar fashion.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/chart_patterns.php