長期形態三、頭肩形態

頭和肩

頭肩形態由左右肩和頭組成：頭部高度高於左肩和右肩。右肩完成後向下突破頸線。頸線是兩個波谷最低點的連線，並有可能向上或向下傾斜。向下傾斜的頸線帶來的交易信號更可靠。

突破的距離可以根據頭部頂點和頸線中部的連線來確定，可以按照該距離設置交易目標。

 
交易量對頭肩形態的確認

• 交易量大規模集中在左肩；
• 頭部交易量適中；
• 右肩交易量減少；
• 突破頸線後交易量迅速增加。

交易信號：

在突破頸線後做空。在右肩位置設置止損。

突破之後，價格通常會回升到頸線處，此時頸線轉變成阻力位。在價格在阻力位反轉的時候做空，並在阻力位上方一個點差處設置止損。
 
右肩高於左肩的頭肩形態對交易信號的預示並不可靠。並且，頸線越平直，交易信號越可靠。

頭肩形態的反轉

倒置的頭肩頂形態的頸線是兩肩的連線，向下傾斜的頸線表示交易量動能的減弱，並不是有效的反轉信號。突破的幅度可以根據頭部和頸線的距離設置。

 
交易量對反轉頭肩形態的確認：

• 交易量集中在第一輪波谷中；
• 第二個波谷交易量適中；
• 第二個頂點交易量增多；
• 第二個波谷交易量減少；
• 突破後交易量激增。

交易信號：

在突破頸線後做多，並在右肩波谷位置設置止損。在反轉信號出現後做多，並在支撐位上方設置止損。
 
頸線呈下降趨勢的頭肩形態（第二個頂點比第一個頂點低）對交易的指示性不強。頸線越平直，指示性越強。

Head and Shoulders Patterns
Head and Shoulders
A head and shoulders pattern consists of a peak followed by a higher peak and then a lower peak with a break below the neckline. The neckline is drawn through the lowest points of the two intervening troughs and may slope upward or downward. A downward sloping neckline is more reliable as a signal.
The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle peak down to the neckline. This target is then projected downwards from the point of breakout.
Volume Confirmation
• High volume on the first peak,
• Moderate volume on the middle peak,
• Low volume on the third peak, and
• A sharp increase in volume on the break below the neckline.
Trading Signals
Go short at breakout below the neckline.
Place a stop-loss just above the last peak.
After the breakout, price often rallies back to the neckline which then acts as a resistance level. Go short on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick above the resistance level.
Never trust a head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly ascending (the second trough being higher than the first). Also, the more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.
Inverted Head and Shoulders
With inverted head and shoulders the neckline is drawn through the highest points of the two intervening peaks. A downward sloping neckline signals continuing weakness and is less reliable as a reversal signal.
The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle trough up to the neckline. This target is then projected upwards from the point of breakout.
Volume Confirmation
• High volume on the first trough,
• Moderate volume on the second trough,
• High volume on the second peak,
• Low volume on the third trough, and
• A sharp increase in volume at the breakout.
Trading Signals
Go long at breakout above the neckline.
Place a stop-loss one tick below the last trough.
There is frequently a correction back to the neckline, which then acts as a support level. Go long on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick below the support level.
Never trust an inverted head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly descending (the second peak being lower than the first). The more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.php