長期形態四、三角形和楔子形態

三角形和楔子形態是長期模式，通常出現在週線圖中。它們的走勢和形狀是判斷趨勢持續或反轉的一個強有力信號。前期形態越強，顯示的交易信號也越可靠。

三角形的三種基本形態：

對稱三角形：對稱三角形低點逐漸升高，高點逐漸降低。由於形狀的特殊性，它既可以是持續形態也可以是反轉形態。向上突破是看漲信號，向下突破是看跌信號。

上升三角形：上升三角形的頂端連線平直，低點逐漸升高。不論在上漲還是下跌趨勢中，上升三角形都是看漲信號。在上升趨勢中，上升三角形是持續信號，在下跌趨勢中，上升三角形則是強大的反轉信號。

下降三角形：下降三角形的低點連線平直，高點逐步降低。通常情況下出現在下跌趨勢中，是一個熊市信號。在上升趨勢中，下降三角形則是很強的一個反轉信號。

例子1：下圖展示的是兩個三角形態和一個下降的楔子形態。

[1]顯示的是對稱三角形：高點逐步降低，低點逐漸升高。

[2]是上升三角形：高點相同，低點逐漸升高。請註意下面對應的交易量變化：上升三角形開始時交易量增加，形成過程中交易量減少，突破之後交易量增加。

[3]是下降的楔形：高點和低點同時降低。

確定交易目標：突破後的交易目標距離是由三角形態開始時的最大垂直距離和結束時最短垂直距離決定的。
例子2、上升趨勢中對稱的三角形態：

1. 突破後的目標距離為[1]處開始時最大距離減去[2]處最短距離：
           突破目標距離 = 13.07 - 10.50 = 2.57
2. [2]處的突破目標是突破點與目標距離之和。
           突破的目標點位 = 12.42 + 2.57 = 14.99
例子3、上升趨勢後的下降三角形

1. 三角形的低點連線位於8.06
2. 目標移動距離是下降三角形最高點[1]與低點位的差值：
          目標移動距離 = 9.00 - 8.06 = 0.94
3. 在[3]處突破後的做空目標為：
          Target = 8.06 - 0.94 = 7.12

兩種楔子形態：高點和低點同時向中間匯聚

下降楔子形態：高點和低點同時降低，是上升趨勢的持續信號和下降趨勢中的反轉信號。

上升楔子形態：高點和低點同時升高，是下降趨勢的持續信號和上升趨勢中的反轉信號。

交易目標測定：反轉楔子形態的突破距離是最高點減去最低點的差值。交易目標是突破價位減去突破距離。

例子4、下圖是一系列的三角形和楔子形態，其中[3]可以很好的展示楔子形態反轉後的目標距離。

 
[1]趨勢通道或上升楔子形態。

[2]上升的三角形態——牛市信號。

[3]最高點為52，因此目標距離為52.00 - 41.06 = 10.94。

[4] 楔子形態在48.40處突破。做空的目標價位是：48.40 - 10.94 = 37.46

交易量確認：

交易量通常集聚在三角形或楔子形態開始處，在形成過程中減少，突破後增加。上升三角形和下降楔子形態上半部分的交易量應該比下半部分交易量大，而下降三角形和上升楔子形態則相反。

交易信號：

在三角形或楔子形態突破後進場，並在相反位置止損。

在例子4中，止損設定在最高處[4]附近、趨勢線上方一個點位處。

Triangles and Wedges
Triangles and wedges are longer-term patterns, often witnessed on weekly charts. They can be powerful continuation or reversal patterns, depending on their shape and whether they are situated in an up- or down-trend.
A strong preceding trend makes a stronger signal.
Triangles
There are 3 basic shapes:
Symmetrical Triangle
Symmetrical triangles form with lower highs and higher lows. Because of their shape, they can act as either acontinuation or a reversal pattern. This will be signaled by the breakout. An upward breakout is a bullish signal, while a downward breakout is bearish.
Ascending Triangle
An ascending triangle is formed by equal highs and higher lows. It is a bullish signal, whether encountered in an up- or down-trend. It is most often observed as a continuation pattern in an up-trend but is a strong reversal signal when witnessed in a down-trend.
Descending Triangle
Descending triangles form with equal lows and lower highs. A bearish signal, the pattern is normally observed as a continuation pattern in a down-trend but can be a powerful reversal signal when encountered in an up-trend.
EXAMPLE
Cochlear Limited (Australia) depicts 2 triangles and a falling wedge.
1. Symmetrical triangle with lower highs and higher lows.
2. Ascending triangle with equal highs and higher lows. Note that volume expands at the start of the triangle, decreases as the triangle forms and expands at the breakout.
3. Falling wedge with lower highs and lower lows.
Target Measurement
The targeted move for a triangle is measured vertically at the start of the triangle: from the first trough or peak to the opposite border of the triangle. The move is then projected vertically from the point of breakout to the actual target.
EXAMPLE
Foodland Associated Limited (Australia) shows a symmetrical triangle in an up-trend.
1. The targeted move is measured from the trough at [1] vertically to the opposite border:
           Move = 13.07 - 10.50 = 2.57
2. The move is then projected from the point of breakout at [2].
3. The target is calculated as the value at the breakout point [2] plus the move:
           Target = 12.42 + 2.57 = 14.99
EXAMPLE
Coles Myer Limited (Australia) exhibits a good example of a descending triangle after a strong up-trend.
1. The targeted move is measured from the first peak [1] to the base of the triangle:
           Move = 9.00 - 8.06 = 0.94
2. The triangle base is at 8.06, the low from [2].
3. The move is then projected from the point of breakout at [3].
4. The target is calculated as the value at the breakout point minus the move:
           Target = 8.06 - 0.94 = 7.12
Wedges
There are 2 basic shapes, both with converging highs and lows:
Falling Wedge
A falling wedge forms with lower highs and lower lows. A bullish signal, a falling wedge is a continuation signal in an up-trend and a reversal signal when observed in a down-trend.
Rising Wedge
A rising wedge is formed by higher highs and higher lows. A bearish signal, the pattern is normally a continuation signal in a down-trend but acts as a reversal signal when encountered in an up-trend.
Target Measurement
The target for a continuation pattern is measured in a similar fashion to a flag or pennant.
The target for a reversal pattern is calculated from the highest peak to the lowest trough in the wedge pattern. The objective is calculated by projecting the target up/down from the breakout point.
EXAMPLE
CSL Limited exhibits a number of wedge and triangle patterns. The largest rising wedge [3] is used to illustrate target measurement for a reversal pattern.
1. Trend channel or rising wedge.
2. Ascending triangle - bullish signal
3. Rising wedge - bear signal. The targeted move for the reversal is measured from the lowest trough (41.06) to the highest peak.
4. The highest peak is at 52.00. The targeted move is therefore 52.00 - 41.06 = 10.94
5. The move is projected down from the breakout point at 48.40.
6. The target is calculated by subtracting the move from the value at the point of breakout:
           Target = 48.40 - 10.94 = 37.46
Volume Confirmation
Volume normally expands at the start of the triangle or wedge, contracts as the pattern develops and then expands on the breakout.
Ascending triangles (and falling wedges) should exhibit higher volume on the up-swings. Descending triangles (and rising wedges) exhibit higher volume on the down-swings.
Trading Signals
Enter a trade at the breakout and place a stop-loss just outside the opposite side of the wedge or triangle pattern.
In the above CSL example, the stop is placed one tick above the upper trendline, at the highest peak on day [4].

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供

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