交易量圖表的應用只要有以下兩個目的:
1、 確認價格變化:如果趨勢的變化沒有伴隨著交易量變化,那麼該趨勢就不是入場的可靠依據。
2、 預期價格變化:交易量的變化通常會導致價格的變化。
如何判斷趨勢中的交易信號
趨勢確認:價格和交易量的同時升高代表了一個良好的上升趨勢,而良好的下降趨勢表現為價格下降和交易量升高。
趨勢走弱表現為上升趨勢中的價格升高,交易量減少;下降趨勢中價格下降和交易量的減少。 長期的價格上漲和低交易量意味著空頭勢力缺乏,長期的價格下降、低交易量則說明多頭勢力有限。
集散量反映的是多頭還是空頭控制著市場,是一個反轉信號。交易量聚集意味著市場被買方控制。下降趨勢停滞並且交易量維持在高位,表明空頭逐漸失去控制。日内市場受多頭控制可以從下面兩種情況推斷出:交易量增加(相對於昨天),收盤價升高;或趨勢下降之後,價格變化幅度小,並伴隨著交易量增加。
分散說明市場被賣方控制。在上升趨勢中價格停滞,但交易量增加說明空頭逐漸控制市場並很有可能發生反轉。以下兩種情況說明日内市場被空頭控制:相對於昨天交易量增加,收盤價降低;或趨勢上升的過程中價格變動幅度小,交易量沒有明顯增加。
突破
當在一個區間内交易的時候,交易量可以顯示價格向上或向下突破的可能性:高交易量出現在價格高峰之前,表明向上突破的可能性大;價格低谷期的高交易量則說明向下突破的可能性大。同時,交易量可以被用來確認突破:突破後的高交易量預示著有效突破,而低交易量則表明突破力度弱。
Volume Patterns
Volume is used for two major purposes:
1. To confirm price changes: if the start of a trend is not accompanied by an increase in volume it is considered to be weak and lacking commitment.
2. To anticipate changes in price: increases in volume often precede changes in price. See Accumulation and Distribution for more detail.
Trading Signals
Trending Markets
Short-term
Trend confirmation:
• Rising prices and rising volume signal a healthy up-trend.
• Falling prices and rising volume signal a healthy down-trend.
Trend weakness:
• Rising prices and falling volume signal trend weakness.
• Falling prices and falling volume may signal trend weakness. See Low Volume in Down-trends for further details.
A large range with low volume indicates a lack of interest from sellers (if price is rising) or buyers (if price is falling).
Long-term
Trend confirmation:
• Higher peaks with higher volume at peaks signal a healthy up-trend.
• Lower troughs with higher volume at troughs signal a healthy down-trend.
Trend weakness:
• Higher peaks with lower volume at peaks signal that the up-trend is weakening.
• Lower troughs with lower volume at troughs signal that the down-trend is weakening.
Accumulation and Distribution
Accumulation and distribution indicate who is in control of the market and often signal a reversal.
Trading ranges represent longer term accumulation or distribution.
Accumulation
Accumulation is when the market is controlled by buyers.
A down-trend that stalls while volume remains high signals that accumulation is taking place. Sellers have lostcontrol to buyers and a reversal is likely.
An Accumulation Day occurs when either:
• Volume increases (compared to yesterday) and closing price moves higher, or
• After trending downwards, there is little or no price movement and an increase in volume.
Distribution
Distribution is when the market is controlled by sellers.
An up-trend that stalls while volume remains high is a sign that distribution is taking place. Buyers have lostcontrol to sellers and a reversal is likely.
A Distribution Day occurs when either:
• Volume increases (compared to yesterday) and closing price moves lower, or
• After trending upwards, there is little or no price movement and an increase in volume.
Breakouts
When price is trading in a range, volume may indicate in which direction a breakout is most likely to occur:
• Higher volume before (leading up to) peaks means that an upward breakout is more likely
• Higher volume before troughs indicates that a downward breakout is more likely
Use volume to confirm the breakout:
• High volume immediately after the breakout indicates a healthy breakout.
• Low volume immediately after the breakout indicates weakness.
文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供
本文來源:http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/volume_patterns.php