短期形態一、旗形與三角旗形態

旗形形態是在趨勢中形成的短期（1~5週）阻塞形態，它是長期趨勢的調整和強有力的延續信號。

旗形形態

若將旗形形態走勢的上端和下端分別連成一條直線，你會發現這兩條線平行，而且該走勢和和長期趨勢相反。當走勢突破這兩條平行線形成的區間，則意味著旗形形態的完成。

傑克•施瓦格，著有《施瓦格期貨 - 技術分析》，他發現即使旗形形態的走勢和長期趨勢一致（而不是和長期走勢相反），也是可靠的。然而，很多交易者不同意這一說法。

例1：兩個旗形形態形成於一個強勁的上升趨勢中，它們高點和低點分別連成一條直線，可以發現它們的走勢是和長期趨勢相反的。

例2：下降趨勢中的旗形形態。

1、 旗形形態[1]和下降的長期走勢相反
2、 觀察[2]、[3]處的價格走勢並確定價格走勢形態，你會發現形態的確認主觀性非常強。
3、 [4]處是一個三角旗形形態。

三角旗形形態

三角旗形形態實際上是短期的三角形形態。在1~5週內，它的高點逐步降低，遞減逐漸升高。高點和低點的分別連線相交，價格走勢突破交點處就代表三角旗形態的完成。

例3：下圖是上升趨勢中的三角旗形，上端和下端價格的分別連線相交成一個短期三角形，隨著價格越過該區間而完成。

交易量確認

交易量在旗形或三角旗形的開始時擴大，在形成過程中縮減，在突破後增加。

設定交易目標

在一個上升趨勢中，突破距離為旗形或三角旗形的起點到最高點的距離，交易目標是突破後的價位加上該距離。

例4：上升趨勢中旗形三角形。

1. 目標距離是根據三角旗形最低點（”V”底部價位）和最高點來確定的。
          目標距離 = 3114 - 2885 = 229
2. [3]處突破後的目標做多點位為： 3088 + 229 = 3317

交易信號

有兩種主流思想：

(A) 第一種思想是在突破後進場，並在趨勢線的對應面外圍一個點處止損。在上升趨勢中，突破旗形或三角形的上方趨勢線後做多，止損放在下方趨勢線的對應處；在下降趨勢中，突破下方趨勢線後做空，並在對應的上方趨勢線的外部一個點位處止損。
(B) 第二種思想是在突破之前進場，原因是三角形態預示的交易信號很可靠。由於止損和進場點很近，提前進場意味著較低的風險。然而，這只適用於三角形態，因為旗形止損點技術性相對來說不可靠。

例5：在交易區間的上方形成了一個三角旗形形態，突破之後形成第二個三角旗形形態。

1. 在9月份，股價上漲處遇到阻力位，形成一個很有前途的雙重底結構。
2. 在阻力位的下方形成了一個三角旗形——一個很強的牛市信號。價格在此處受到阻塞而不是進行調整，並在[2]處向上突破。
3. 接下來四天，三角旗形的突破轉變為空頭陷阱，多頭在[3]處順利突破。
4. 一個大的三角旗形橫跨阻力線形成——另外一個牛市信號。當價格在[4]處再次觸碰阻力位，多頭進場。
5. 在趨勢線的下方（[5]處）設定止損，價格接下來再次試探趨勢線，但是並沒有成功觸發止損，而是開始了一個強有力的增長。
6. 下方的交易量並不像預期那麼完美，但是大的三角旗形形成之時仍然有所增加，並在形成過程中減少。
7. 大的三角旗形突破之後，交易量增加。

Flags and Pennants
Flags and pennants are short-term congestion patterns (one to five weeks) that form in trends. They represent pauses while a trend consolidates and are reliable continuation signals in a strong trend.
Flags
A flag is formed when parallel lines can be drawn through the peaks and the troughs in a correction (or a rally during a down-trend). The lines slope counter to the direction of the trend. The pattern is completed by a break outside the parallel lines.
Jack Schwager (Schwager on Futures - Technical Analysis) says that he finds flags that slope in the direction of the trend (rather than counter to the trend) just as reliable. There are many traders who would not agree with this.
EXAMPLE
ANZ is in the middle of a strong up-trend. Two flags are marked on the chart. Lines through the peaks and the lines through the troughs are parallel and counter to the direction of the trend.
EXAMPLE
Telstra Corporation Limited (Australia) in a strong down-trend.
1. A flag forms with parallel lines counter to the down-trend.
2. Try to identify the flag or pennant between [2] and [3].
3. This will give you an idea of how subjective pattern identification can be.
4. The last pattern is a pennant.
Pennants
Pennants are really short-term triangles. They form with lower highs and higher lows, over one to five weeks. The line through the peaks and the line through the troughs converge and the pattern is completed by a break outside the converging lines.
EXAMPLE
Cellestis Limited (Australia) illustrates a pennant during a recent up-trend. The upper and lower lines converge to form a short-term triangle, completed by price gapping above the upper pennant line。
Volume Confirmation
Volume normally expands at the start of the flag or pennant, contracts as the pattern develops and then expands on the breakout.
Target Measurement
In an up-trend, the targeted move is measured from the start point of the trend (the breakout point at the base of the trend or most recent congestion pattern) to the highest high recorded in the flag or pennant pattern. The move is then projected up from the point of breakout (from the flag or pennant pattern), to arrive at the target.
EXAMPLE
The All Ordinaries (Australia) exhibited a pennant during a strong up-trend in October 2001.
1. The targeted move is measured from the high of the lowest day in the "V" bottom.
2. The upper boundary of the targeted move is the highest high recorded within the pennant.
           Move = 3114 - 2885 = 229
3. The distance from [1] to [2] is then projected from the point of breakout (when price rose above the high of day [3]).
4. The target is calculated as the move plus the value at the breakout point:
           Target = 3088 + 229 = 3317
In a down-trend, the targeted move is measured from the start of the down-trend (the breakout point from the reversal or most recent congestion pattern). The distance is calculated to the lowest low recorded in the flag or pennant pattern and then projected down from the point of breakout (from the flag or pennant pattern).
Trading Signals
There are two schools of thought:
(A) The first school will enter a trade at the point of breakout and place a stop-loss one tick outside the opposite trendline.
In an up-trend, the trade is entered on a break above the upper flag or pennant line. The stop is placed just below the lower flag or pennant line, in line (vertically) with the point of breakout.
In a down-trend, the trade is entered on a break below the lower flag or pennant line, with a stop placed one tick above the upper flag or pennant line, opposite the breakout point.
(B) The second school will enter a trade before the breakout point, while the pattern is still forming. Their reasoning is that the patterns are normally reliable and early entry means lower risk, as the stop is closer to the entry point. This is only makes sense for pennants, not for flags where there is no technically reliable point to place a stop-loss.
For pennants, place a stop-loss just outside the trendline, in line (vertically) with the point of entry, on the opposite side to the expected breakout.
EXAMPLE
Southcorp Limited (Australia) forms a pennant at the upper end of a trading range and then forms a second pennant after the breakout.
1. The stock encounters resistance at [1] before making a further trough in September - a promising double bottom.
2. A pennant forms below the resistance line - a strong bullish signal as the stock has entered a congestion pattern rather than a correction. The breakout at [2] is in the opposite direction to that expected.
3. Within 4 days the breakout has turned into a bear trap, with a break above the pennant at [3].
4. A larger pennant forms straddling the resistance line - another strong bullish signal. A long position is entered on day [4], when price respects the bottom trendline.
5. A stop-loss is placed below the trendline, in line with the previous trough. The stop is indicated by a horizontal trendline at [5]. Price again tests the lower trendline but fails to activate the stop, before making a strong breakout to form a new high.
6. Volume is not text-book perfect, but expands at the start of the large pennant.
7. Volume then contracts as the pennant forms.
8. Finally, volume expands at the breakout.

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供

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