基本面分析

什麼是基本面分析？

基本面分析試圖根據某一只股票的預期未來現金流分析出該股票的現值。

現值

現值是指對未來所有現金流量以恰當的折現率進行折現後的價值。現金流入量通過貼現率將其未來的價值轉換為現有等值價值。

貼現率

貼現率包括兩個組成部分：
• 一個毫無風險的利率（通常指國債利率）
• 補貼給投資者的、針對未來預期現金流的風險溢價

預期未來現金流

預期未來現金流是投資者或分析師根據企業的現狀以及發展前景做出的推斷。

不確定性

對價值的詳細評估過程中常見的錯誤是忽略了評估要素的不確定性：
• 當前的財務結構有可能改善或惡化；
• 企業的運作環境可能面臨較大改變：
o 新的法律法規或新的關稅、稅收政策；
o 競爭對手引入新的產品；
o 新技術或替代品；
o 新的銷售渠道；
o 原材料過剩或短缺；
o 勞動力市場變化；
o 消費者愛好的改變；
o 融資成本上升或下降；
o 戰爭、瘟疫或自然災害影像購買力。
• 新的風險投資可能盈利或大規模虧本；
• 不斷的訴訟風險——集體訴訟、版權或專利侵權、壟斷等等；
• 經營手段有可能出乎意料的成功也可能沮喪的失敗。
大多數情況下，分析師對企業前景的最準確預測也僅僅類似於在黑暗中射擊。

基本面分析與技術分析

論壇上關於基本面分析與技術分析孰好孰劣一直以來都存在分歧，每一方都聲稱自己的方法更有效。他們似乎都忽略了所讨論的時間框架。短期和中期的價格波動容易受市場情緒驅動，而長期價格走勢與股票的內在價值一致——該言論得到了市場上大部分長期趨勢交易者的認同。
技術分析非常適合短期及中期投資，而基本面分析或基本面與技術相結合的分析（稱為積極投資）更適合交易長期趨勢。

估值模型

分析師傾向於過分強調自己的估值模型，因為它是一個可以達到高精密度的領域。但與正確假設相比，其重要性又顯得微不足道。

Fundamental Analysis
What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis attempts to determine the present value of a stock based on its expected future cash flows.
Present Value
Present value is the aggregate of all future cash flows discounted to their current value. Cash flows are discounted by converting their future value to an equivalent current value using a discount rate.
Discount Rate
The discount rate includes two components:
• a risk-free rate of interest (usually the yield on treasury notes or bonds), and
• a premium to compensate investors for the increased risk associated with uncertain future cash flows.
Expected Future Cash Flows
Expected future cash flows are the investor's/analyst's assessment of future cash flows based on their assessment of the present position and future prospects of a company. See Value Investing for further details.
Uncertainty
The most common mistake is to prepare a detailed assessment of value without recognizing the uncertainty surrounding many of the assumptions on which your valuation is based:
• The current financial structure may improve or deteriorate;
• The operating environment may radically alter:
o new legislation or new tariffs or taxes;
o competitors introduce new products;
o new technologies or substitute products;
o new distribution channels;
o raw material surpluses or shortages;
o labor market changes;
o changes in consumer tastes;
o financing costs rise or fall; or
o wars, pestilence and natural disasters may affect the ability to trade.
• New ventures may succeed or fail spectacularly;
• Litigation is a continual risk - from class actions, copyright or patent infringements, and antitrust violations; and
• Management may succeed beyond expectations or fail dismally.
In many cases the analysts best estimate of a company's future prospects is no more than a shot in the dark.
Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis
There is a long-standing debate on the forum between fundamental and technical analysts, each camp claiming that their method is better. What they seem to have lost sight of is that they are talking about different time frames. Short and medium-term price fluctuations tend to be driven by market sentiment rather than changes in the intrinsic value of a stock, while in the long-term price tends to converge with intrinsic value -- or at least the consensus view of intrinsic value among the major market players.
Technical analysis is ideally suited to short- or medium-term investing, while fundamental analysis, or a combination of technical and fundamental analysis (called active investing), is more suited to the long term.
Valuation Models
Analysts tend to place too much emphasis on their valuation model because it is the one area where they can achieve a fair degree of precision. The importance of the valuation model is comparatively insignificant when compared to the importance of making the correct assumptions.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/fundamental_analysis.php