Edwin Coppock 開發估波指標僅僅是為了一個目的:去識別道瓊斯工業平均指數牛市市場的開始。但是它同樣也適用於其他商品指數或平均數。盡管通常會有所延遲,但是估波指標的交易信號通常比較可靠。唯一例外的是,在2001~2002年期間——看下圖的紅色箭頭,說明,沒有一個指標是完全可靠的。
交易信號
當估波指標自下而上穿過“0”的時候,表明牛市的到來。
示例
計算公式
計算估波指標:
1. 利用月收盤價計算出14個月的價格變化速率(ROC)。
2. 利用月收盤價計算出11個月的價格變化速率。
3. 將步驟 1 和 2的結果相加。
4. 計算出步驟3結果的10個月加權移動平均數。
計算方法有很多,為了得到更及時的交易信號,可以將月數據改為相應的日數據:294日ROC,231日ROC以及210日加權移動平均數。
Coppock Indicator
Edwin Coppock developed the Coppock Indicator with one sole purpose: to identify the commencement of bull markets. The indicator was devised for use on the Dow Jones Industrial Average but is suitable for use on other market indices or averages.
Although often late, the Coppock Indicator has produced reliable signals in the past, but two false signals in 2001/2002 — see the red arrows below — showed that no indicator is infallible.
Trading Signals
A bull market is signaled when the Coppock Indicator turns up from below zero.
Formula
To calculate the Coppock Indicator:
1. Calculate 14 month Rate of Change (Price) for the index. Use monthly closing price.
2. Calculate 11 month Rate of Change (Price) for the index. Use monthly closing price.
3. Add the results of 1 and 2.
4. Calculate a 10 month weighted moving average of the result.
There are a number of variations in calculation. For a more timely signal, try substituting the daily equivalent in place of monthly figures: 294 day ROC, 231 day ROC and 210 day weighted moving averages.
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文章來源:http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/coppock_indicator.php