非趨勢價格擺動指標（DPO）

2014-12-25 15:13:34

我第一次發現非趨勢價格擺動指標（DPO）是在Steven Achelis 所著的《技術分析A~Z》一書中。從那以後，我就一直很偏愛該指標。它將收盤價與前一天的移動平均線相比較，消除了比移動平均線長的週期的影響，從而將短期週期分離出來。

DPO的真正作用是識別長期趨勢的轉折點：

• 當DPO的低點越來越高——預示著中期價格趨勢會向上發展。
• 當DPO的頂點降低——價格有可能向下反轉。

交易信號

首先你要評估出自己要交易的最大週期。該週期的一半用作移動平均線週期。DOP指標在週期小於21日時表現最好。

市場調整期

通過觀察以前的價格走勢，設定超買和超賣區域。

• 當DPO指標自下而上穿過超賣區域時做多。
• 當DPO從超買區下降的時候做空。

所有交易都要設定止損。

市場處於趨勢中

跟隨市場的方向交易。

• DPO下降到零以下並再次折回的時候做多。
• DPO上升到零之上並再次下降到零之下的時候做空。
只有當價格始終在MA一侧的時候交易。利用趨勢指標確定離場位置。

利用止損保護你的倉位。

另外一種（更激進）原則：

• DPO的低點較前一低點有所升高時，做多。
• DPO的高點較前一高點降低時，做空。

始終要跟隨趨勢交易，並設定止損。

示例：

IBM 公司股價以及 7 日DPO、 21 日移動平均線(MA)。DPO被用來識別短期趨勢，而MA作為趨勢過濾器，可以識別和退出趨勢交易。

1. 調整期——價格圍繞MA波動。[S] 處做空：DPO重新回到超買區域之下。
2. [L] 處做多：DPO價格從超賣區域折回。
3. [S] 處做空。
4. [L] 處做多。
5. 價格突破交易區間——DPO曲線擺動劇烈。趨勢信號產生。
6. 長期趨勢快速的上升，但是DPO隔離出了短期趨勢。形成一個較低的頂點。激進的交易者會在這時退出交易。
7. DPO重新上升到零之上，預示著一個很好的趨勢入場點。上升趨勢沒有動搖——收盤價始終位於MA之上。激進的投資者會在這時進場：DPO形成了一個更高的低點。
8. [X] 處價格收於MA下方，平倉。

計算公式

1. 決定你要分析的時間週期。該週期的一半時間設定為n。
2. 計算出n日的簡單移動平均數。
3. 計算 (n / 2 + 1)
4. 從收盤價減去(n / 2 + 1)的簡單移動平均數。
DPO=收盤價- (n / 2 + 1) 簡單移動平均數

Detrended Price Oscillator
I first discovered the Detrended Price Oscillator in Steven Achelis'Technical Analysis A-Z. Since then it has become a firm favorite. Used to isolate short-term cycles, Detrended Price Oscillator compares closing price to a prior moving average, eliminating cycles longer than the moving average.
The real power of the Detrended Price Oscillator is in identifying turning points in longer cycles:
• When Detrended Price Oscillator shows a higher trough - expect an upturn in the intermediate cycle;
• When Detrended Price Oscillator experiences a lower peak - expect a downturn.
Trading Signals
First, estimate the maximum length of the cycle that you wish to track. Use half of the cycle length as the MAperiod. The Detrended Price Oscillator is most effective with indicator periods of 21 days or less.
Ranging Markets
Set overbought and oversold levels based on observation of past price behavior.
• Go long when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses below and then back above the oversold level.
• Go short when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses above and then back below the overbought level.
Use stop-losses at all times.
Trending Markets
Only trade in the direction of the trend.
• Go long when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses below zero and then turns back above.
• Go short when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses above zero and then turns back below.
Only execute trades if the trend is intact (price does not close below the MA). Exit using a trend indicator.
Use stop-losses to protect your position.
Alternative (and more aggressive) rules:
• Go long when Detrended Price Oscillator forms a higher trough.
• Go short when Detrended Price Oscillator forms a lower peak.
Trade only in the direction of the trend and always use stop losses.

EXAMPLE
IBM Corp. with    7 day Detrended Price Oscillator, and    21 day exponential moving average (MA). The Detrended Price Oscillator is used for analyzing the short cycle and the moving average is used to identify and exit trends (with closing price as a filter).
1. Price is ranging - indicated by the fluctuation around the MA. Go short [S] when Detrended Price Oscillator turns back below the   overbought level.
2. Go long [L] when the Detrended Price Oscillator turns back above the   oversold level.
3. Go short [S].
4. Go long [L].
5. Price breaks out of the trading range - confirmed by the larger Detrended Price Oscillator swing. Switch to trend signals.
6. Note how the long trend rises steeply but the Detrended Price Oscillator isolates the short cycle, forming a lower peak. More aggressive traders (see alternative rules) will exit at this point.
7. Detrended Price Oscillator crosses back to above the zero line, indicating a useful trend entry point. The up-trend remains intact - there are no closes below the MA. More aggressive traders (alternative rules) would re-enter their position at this point: Detrended Price Oscillator has formed a higher trough.
8. Exit when price closes below the MA at [X].
Setup
The default indicator window is set at 20 days. To alter the default settings - Edit Indicator Settings.
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator.
Formula
To calculate the Detrended Price Oscillator:
1. Decide on the time frame that you wish to analyze. Set n as half of that cycle period.
2. Calculate a simple moving average for n periods.
3. Calculate    (n / 2 + 1)
4. Subtract the moving average, from (n / 2 + 1) days ago, from the closing price:

DPO = Close - Simple moving average [from (n / 2 + 1) days ago]

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/detrended_price_oscillator.php