青銅級股票經理Barry Norris認為歐元區有能力希臘退出，並稱這或許不是一個壞主意——盡管它暗含著對市場的不利因素。
很難低估歐央行QE政策的重要性，此前QE一直被視為歐央行永遠不會實施的一種政策性工具，但現在歐央行已經全方位地實施QE政策。這些政策的一個合乎邏輯的結論是，只要歐元區國家認同，歐央行將會使他們的債務貨幣化。
“希臘政府目前沒有辦法得到足夠的資金”
鑒於歐元區政府存在無法償還所借外幣的風險，歐央行最終確立了自己成為一個可靠買家與貸款人的角色——像美聯儲和英國央行一樣。因此，就歐元的長期生存能力而言，它的信用差距在縮小。歐元區容易受到主權債務危機的主要原因已不存在。
然而，QE是一個很強大的政策，如果濫用的話，它將是十分危險的。市場應該相信，QE並不是歐元區政府的財政責任以及經濟改革可信度的替代者。一旦任何的歐元區政府拒絕遵守規則，市場對歐元的信心（歐元價值的體現）就會大幅降低，歐洲的未來經濟也將處於危險之中。
QE就像《指環王》三部曲裡的戒指：它十分重要，同時它需要存在於Frodo Baggins的手中而不是被Gollum，Saruman 或者 Sauron所擁有。
希臘面臨對抗
希臘政府與歐盟及貨幣基金組織債權人之間的對抗可能會在65億政府債券到期時也就是夏季發生。因為希臘政府暫時沒有足夠的資金。
如果沒有實施一個可信的經濟改革計劃，歐盟及貨幣基金組織就不可能同意給希臘提供足夠的流動性。似乎，目前的希臘聯盟在實施這麼一個經濟改革計劃方面也不會有足夠的政治支持。
如果希臘政府迫使本國銀行購買政府債權來替代歐盟/貨幣基金組織的援助，並以此來避免信用危機，那麼歐央行就有可能停止對希臘流動性的緊急援助，從而迫使希臘政府引入另一種貨幣。
希臘退出利好歐元區
鑒於現在存在的風火牆，如果希臘退出歐元區，即使短期市場會因為希臘的違約而出現負面事件，但是從長期來看，我歐元區肯定會變得更好。希臘只是一個小的經濟體，只占歐元區GDP的1%多一點。
希臘的政府債券只有12%被私人投資者持有：最大的風險資本最終被歐元區別的國家政府持有，這應該放在歐央行每個月購債600億歐元的背景下考慮。事實上，希臘政府總的3220億歐元債務只相當於歐央行五個多月的QE購買金額。
希臘退出歐元區是否會“傳染“歐元區弱小國家相繼退出歐元區是一個備受争議的問題。。我們認為，希臘在債務的不可持續性以及政府領導方面是非常獨特的。歐央行會加速購買計劃來恢複市場的信心。
最終，一個更加可信的、沒有希臘在内的歐元區會出現。簡而言之，我們似乎達到了一個臨界點，希臘的政治“傳染”是否會鼓勵經濟文盲的政治運動現在已經超越了金融的“傳染”，因此，現在是時候考慮希臘退出歐元區對於歐元區剩下的國家來說是否是最壞的結果。
Why a Greek Exit Could Be Good for Europe
Bronze Rated Argonaut European equity manager Barry Norris thinks the Eurozone can now afford a Grexit and says it may not be such a bad idea – despite the implication for markets
It is difficult to underemphasise the significance of ECB QE, which had previously been seen as a policy tool which the ECB could or would never implement but for which now there is essentially an open-ended commitment. The logical conclusion of these policies is that the ECB will, if necessary, monetize the debt of all Eurozone sovereigns so long as their governments are not beyond the pale.
The Greek government does not currently have access to sufficient funds
Whereas there was previously a risk that all Eurozone governments had borrowed in a foreign currency which they ultimately could not print, the ECB has now established itself – like the Fed and the BoE – as a credible buyer, as well as lender, of last resort.
As a result there should be a much diminished credibility gap as to the long term viability of the Euro. The main cause of the Eurozone’s unique vulnerability to a sovereign debt crisis is arguably now removed.
QE is, however, a powerful tool which is very dangerous should it be abused. Markets need to have confidence that the ECB’s QE is not a substitute for fiscal responsibility and credible economic reform by Eurozone governments. Should any Eurozone government be seen as refusing to abide by the rules, then confidence in the Euro, as a store of value, would be greatly diminished and Europe’s economic future put in peril.
As such QE is like the ring in the Lord of the Rings trilogy: it is essential that whilst it exists it remains in the possession of Frodo Baggins rather than Gollum, Saruman or Sauron.
Greece Faces Confrontation
The confrontational scenario between the Syrizia-led Greek government and its EU and IMF creditors is likely to come to a head over the summer when €6.5 billion of government bonds are scheduled to be repaid. The Greek government does not currently have access to sufficient funds.
It is unlikely that the EU and IMF will agree to afford Greece sufficient liquidity unless a credible programme of economic reform is established. It also seems unlikely that the current Greek coalition would have sufficient political support to implement such a programme of economic reform.
Should the Greek government force the Greek banks to purchase its debt as an alternative to formal EU/IMF assistance then to avoid moral hazard the ECB may feel obliged to cut off emergency liquidity assistance to the Greek banks, thus forcing the Greek government into introducing an alternative currency.
Greek Exit Could Be Good for the Eurozone
In view of the firewalls now in place, I no longer believe that the Eurozone would not be better off, certainly in the longer term, by ejecting Greece from Euro membership even if this leads to a short-term market negative event of Greek debt default. Greece is a small economy, accounting for just over 1% of Eurozone GDP.
Only 12% of Greek government debt is held by private investors: the biggest amount of capital at risk is ultimately owned by other Eurozone governments, which have record cheap access to capital, and should be put into context of the €60 billion a month of new money being created by the ECB in asset purchases. In fact the entire stock of Greek government debt of €322 billion amounts to just over five months of ECB QE.
It is a matter of debate whether a “Grexit” would lead to sustained “contagion” across weaker members of the Eurozone. We think that Greece is unique in the Eurozone in terms of its unsustainable debt burden and recalcitrant government and that the ECB would likely accelerate its asset purchases in order to restore market confidence.
Ultimately, a more credible Eurozone might emerge without Greece. In short, we would seemed to have reached a point where the risks of political “contagion” from Greece to the rest of the Eurozone in terms of encouraging economic illiterate political movements now exceed the risks of financial “contagion” and as such it is time to consider whether “Grexit” is now the least worst outcome for the rest of the Eurozone.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/137183/why-a-greek-exit-could-be-good-for-europe.aspx