美元能超過歐元嗎？

隨著歐元區經濟衰弱和美國經濟好轉，兩個地區的貨幣出現先了人們期望的反映。這導致許多在歐洲擁有大量業務的美國公司出現了諸多匯率問題。但是這些問題會持續嗎？這取決於這兩個經濟體怎麼處理這個問題。

歐元疲軟

不僅僅是希臘迫使歐元價值下降。量化寬松是目前對歐元施加重大影響的力量。歐洲央行（ECB）主席Mario Draghi在一月宣佈這個高達1.1萬億的項目。隨後湧入市場的新的流動性債券使貧血的主權性債務收益暴跌。三月實行的刺激增長了以歐元計價的債券的價值，以至於許多短期票據實際上提供負收益率。瑞士最近也以負收益率拍賣了十年期的國庫債券，西班牙也有一些即將到期的債券進入了負收益率的境地。這和在2011年面臨違約的國家完全不同。

對低收益或者負收益不滿意的歐洲投資者幾乎毫無選擇。公司債務收益幾乎和政府的一樣低，尤其是那些高質量的資產。股票和發展中市場債券相對高些，但是他們帶有更大的風險。對歐洲交易員顯而易見的解決方法是投資美國國債並對沖匯率風險。此舉將有助於增強美元。

此外，歐盟經濟不是做的很好。歐元區第四季度的GDP增長僅為百分之零點三，大部分來自德國百分之零點七的增長。在和美國相比，這一數據顯得非常疲軟。（更多請看：《歐元的背後：歷史和未來》。）

美元走強

美國是世界上最強大的經濟體之一，它的經濟複蘇導致美元對所有貨幣價值激增，不僅僅是歐元。美元指數——用來測量美元對其他貨幣的強度，例如歐元、日元、英鎊和加拿大元，在去年大約增長了百分之二十七。而歐元占這一指數的百分之五十七點六，這表明美元對其他貨幣具有拉動力。

美國國債債券也遠比其他國家具有吸引力。美國政府被認為和歐洲央行一樣穩定，但是當前提供更高的收益率。在經過對美元失去其世界儲備貨幣地位的擔憂後，人們發現美元還是一如既往的強勁。

美國經濟看起來也十分明朗。2014年美聯儲以很少的長期負面影響結束了量化寬松政策。GDP 繼續以每年百分之二到百分之三的速度增長，盡管有由惡劣天氣原因造成偶爾季度估計失誤。（更多請看：《為什麼 歐元/美元 貨幣對不報價成 美元/歐元？》）

總結

目前，一歐元的價格為1.06美元，遠低於2011年兩種貨幣幾乎1.56美元的差距。是否有足夠的動力跨越這個鴻溝呢？

確定的是風險看起來在歐元區内部。希臘是一個巨大的威脅，如果它脫離歐盟，毫無疑問歐元價值將會下降。當然也有次要風險，包括俄羅斯的侵略和負經濟增長。

但是越大的風險將會持續使增強美元。在世界其他主要經濟體都面臨麻煩的時候，美國經濟持續看好。下跌的原油價格正在重傷加拿大，歐元疲軟影響英國和日本不能擺脫其經濟衰退。給投資者留下的選擇很少，在這點上，好像美元將會不可避免的超過歐元。

Will The USD Surpass The EUR?

By Vanessa Page | April 14, 2015  

As the eurozone economy weakens and the U.S. economy strengthens, the regions’ respective currencies have reacted in an expected manner. This has led to many currency-related problems for U.S.-based companies with large operations in Europe. But will these problems continue? That depends on how the two economies proceed from this point.

Euro weakness

It isn’t just Greece that’s driving down the value of the euro. Quantitative easing is another force currently exerting significant influence on the currency. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced the program, which is worth up to €1.1 trillion, in January. The subsequent influx of new liquidity in the bond market sent already anemic sovereign debt yields tumbling. The stimulus, implemented in March, has increased the value of euro-denominated bonds so much that many shorter term notes are actually offering negative yields. Switzerland recently auctioned off 10-year treasury notes with a negative yield as well, and even Spain has witnessed some of its near-maturity bonds falling into negative yield territory. This is a far cry from the nation’s 2011 near default.

European investors who aren’t happy with low- or negative-yield bonds have few options. Corporate debt yields are nearly as low as government issues, especially for higher quality assets. Stocks and developing market bonds yield more, but they come with much greater risk. The obvious solution for European traders is to invest in U.S. treasuries and hedge out the currency exposure. This move is helping to strengthen the U.S. dollar.

Furthermore, the European Union economy isn’t doing well. Eurozone GDP grew by only 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, with most of the economic expansion coming from Germany and its 0.7 percent growth. Those figures are weak, especially compared to the U.S. (For more, see: Behind The Euro: History And Future.)

Dollar strength

The American economy is one of the strongest in the world, and its economic recovery is causing the dollar to surge against to all the currencies, not just the Euro. The U.S. Dollar Index—which measures the strength of the dollar versus against foreign currencies such as the euro, yen, pound and Canadian dollar—is up roughly 27 percent over the last year. While the euro makes up 57.6 percent of the index, it’s evident that the U.S. dollar is still rallying compared to the other currencies.

U.S. treasury bonds also look far more attractive than other countries’ bonds. The U.S. government is viewed as stable as the ECB but is currently offering much higher yields. After much concern over the dollar potentially losing its status as the world’s reserve currency, it’s clear the currency is perceived as being strong as ever.

The U.S. economy is also looking pretty bright. The Federal Reserve discontinued quantitative easing in 2014 with very little long-term side effects. GDP growth continues to increase by 2 to 3 percent a year, notwithstanding the occasional quarterly estimate miss caused by terrible weather. (For more, see: Why isn't the EUR/USD currency pair quoted as USD/EUR?)
The Bottom Line

Presently, a single euro fetches $1.06 – a far cry from 2011 when the difference between the two currencies was nearly $0.50 greater. Is there enough momentum to bridge the gap?

It certainly looks that way as risks continue inside the eurozone. Greece is the big threat – if it leaves the European Union, there’s little doubt the currency will fall. There are also secondary risks, including more aggression from Russia and negative economic growth.

But the bigger risk could be the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar. In a world where every other major economy is having trouble, the U.S. is continuing to look better. Falling oil prices are hurting Canada, euro weakness is affecting the UK and Japan just can’t break out of its economic slump. Investors are left with few choices, and at this point, it seems like an inevitability that the U.S. dollar will surpass the euro.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/041415/will-usd-surpass-eur.asp