美國 GDP 下滑，但是經濟增長將會加速

由於世界經濟的進一步發展和因勞動力短缺和工資增長而更加富裕的消費者，美國明年經濟增速可能達到2.75%。

正如普遍預計的那樣，週五公佈的第一季度實際GDP年化季率從0.2%初值下修至-0.7% ，與公衆通過近期發佈的數據預測到的結果一樣糟糕。

“西海岸港口罷工不利於出口”

事實上，官方的公佈數據稍好於公衆預期的1%萎縮。甚至美聯儲主席耶倫在近期的講話中就提到第一季度GDP存在從增長修正到虧損的可能性。

除了一些小的、彌補性的小幅修正，真正的大修正是高於預期的進口增長以及庫存累積比最初公佈的減少。GDP的“P”，生產，並不是直接衡量的。相反，是政府計算銷售以及加上庫存的改變計算得出。庫存大於銷售意味著產量大於銷量。相反地，零售店里那些沒有在美國境內生產的外國商品需要從GDP中扣除。

修訂並沒有改變之前報告的大致輪廓。如果有的話，我們對當前修訂之後的報告更加滿意，因為我們鄙視庫存對GDP的巨大貢獻，庫存只意味著生產過剩。在銷售疲軟的環境中，這可能表明接下來幾個季度生產的減少，進而打壓未來的GDP。所以，庫存推動的GDP增長往往是得不償失，因為它需要犧牲未來幾個季度GDP。一年當中，庫存對GDP的貢獻變化量小，幾乎接近於零。

同樣，某一季度中進口的巨大變化在一年中也會自我修正，比如，當前季度進口增加，則下一季度的進口將會減少。然而，在經濟复蘇過程中，進口會呈上升趨勢並且會危害全年的GDP計算。這一點和全年庫存微小的調整與無趨勢性不同。

主要的外賣商品季度性是不變的。消費者仍然是拉動經濟增長的主要動力，隨著經濟結構類別中油井數量的降低，淨出口的增加是一個巨大的诽谤。別的領域沒有產生很大的變化。有點奇怪的是，政府支出持續下降。

雖然消費者一直是最大的貢獻者，但是第一季度和第二季度的增速相差一多半。雖然我承認經濟衰退的原因是多方面的，但不可否認的是，天氣對消費者的消費能力有巨大影響。在那些易受天氣影響的領域，比如飯店、旅館、服裝和汽車行業，都遭受到了較大打擊。

不過，醫療保健、食品等領域也不是十分火爆。然而，四月份較好的氣候促進了汽車、餐館等行業的發展，這也預示著在六月份這些行業將會有可觀的銷售業績。

能源相關產品的增量緩慢、出口減少，以及由於美元強勢導致的經濟低迷，世界經濟增長緩慢、缺乏對相關商品的購買需求。西海岸港口的罷工一定程度上也影響了出口，但是對進口的影響最大。三月份，那些徘徊在太平洋的進口商船不約而同地將它們的貨物卸載下來，人為地提高進口價格。盡管那些進口貨物在港口具體的清空時間不確定，但是這些進口在不久的將來會對GDP產生巨大影響。

我們堅信全年的GDP增長率將會在2%~2.5%之間。這意味著接下來三個季度的增長率都會維持在3%左右增長率。隨著世界經濟的增長以及由於勞動力短缺帶來的工資水平的提高，明年的增長率會小幅增加至2.25%-2.75%。勞動力數量的減少將會抑制許多消費類別，但是將會小幅提振房地產市場。

US GDP Falls, But Economy Growth Will Pick Up
With a stronger world economy and a more well-off consumer due to labour scarcity and wage gains, US economic growth next year could accelerate to 2.75%
As widely expected, the first-quarter GDP growth rate was reduced from a measly 0.2% to an outright decline of 0.7% on Friday. As bad as the revision seemed, it was widely anticipated and could be easily predicted by looking at recently released data revisions.
“The West Coast port strike didn't help exports”
In fact, the official decline was modestly better than the consensus forecast of a 1% contraction. Even Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen alluded to the fact in recent speeches that a first-quarter GDP revision to a loss from a gain was a possibility.
Besides the usual small and offsetting revisions, the really large revisions were relatively equally divided between a higher-than-expected estimated surge in imports and a reduction in the inventory build-up that was smaller than originally reported.
The "P" in GDP, production, is not measured directly. Instead, the government counts sales and adds the changes in inventories. More inventory than sales means that production was higher than sales. Conversely, foreign goods that were not produced in the United States end up in retail stores; therefore, they have to be subtracted from GDP.
The revisions were not really a game-changer with the broad contours of the report little changed from the previous one. If anything, we were more pleased with the report versus the previous ones because we despise seeing a huge contribution from inventories, which means production may have been excessive relative to sales levels.
In a weak sales environment, it likely means a reduction in production in subsequent quarters, depressing future GDP reports. So GDP gains from inventories are often a pyrrhic victory, boosting short-term GDP at the expense of future quarters. Over the course of a full year, not just one quarter, the inventory contribution changes little and is relatively close to zero.
Likewise, huge import changes in one quarter tend to be self-correcting over the course of a full year, with a big quarter often followed by small ones. However, in a recovery, imports will trend upward and will hurt the full-year GDP calculation, unlike full-year inventory adjustments, which tend to be relatively small and trendless.
The key takeaways for the quarter are unchanged. Consumers continued to be the key driver of the economy, net exports were a huge detractor as was a rapidly declining oil sector, fewer oil wells show up in the business structures category. Most other categories didn't change enough to make a big difference. Somewhat surprisingly, government spending continued to decline.

Although consumers remained the biggest contributor, that growth rate was more than cut in half between the first and second quarter. Weather weighed on聽consumers' ability to spend, though I confess that the slowdown was rather broad-based. In the weather-affected category, restaurants, hotels, clothing, and autos were some of the harder-hit sectors.
Still, health-care, groceries, and the other categories weren't so hot, either. Nevertheless, better weather is already helping some categories autos and restaurants in April, and should bode well for a better consumption number in the June quarter.
Exports were influenced by lower growth in energy-related products as well as a general malaise due to a strong dollar, weak world growth, and lack of interest in anything broadly related to the production of commodities. The West Coast port strike certainly didn't help exports, but the bigger impact was on imports. Imports that had been cruising the Pacific Ocean emptied their cargo bays en masse in March, artificially inflating imports. Although the exact timing of when those imports completely clear the harbours is unknown, surely imports will take at least a one-month dive in the near future. That import dip will turn into a huge benefit for the GDP calculation at some point.
We are holding firm for a 2%-2.5% growth rate for the full year. That implies that growth over the next three quarters will average around 3%. With a stronger world economy and a more well-off consumer due to labour scarcity and wage gains, growth next year could accelerate modestly to 2.25%-2.75%. Demographics will keep a lid on many spending categories but may help the housing market slightly.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/138346/us-gdp-falls-but-economy-growth-will-pick-up.aspx