太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)對5年內全球股票和債券的預測

全球的債券平均回報率2%、股票收益在4.5%的情況下，債券巨頭通過投資組合實現了對投資者年平均回報3.5%

“可預見時期內不會出現衰退”，債券巨頭太平洋投資管理公司的Mihir Worah在近期的Morningstar投資會議中說到，指的是發達國家和別的主要經濟體比如印度和中國。PIMCO的資產配置和真實回報的首席信息官指出，俄羅斯和巴西例外，但也證實基金公司預測發達國家在未來12~18個月內不會出現比位於較低位置的、緩慢上升更令人失望的情況。

PIMCO預測2015年英國和美國的GDP增幅將會達到2.5%、歐盟1.5%，中國6.5%——用Worah 的話說，除了為識別特定投資機會提供穩定的背景之外，“沒有什麼值得興奮的”。

Worah告訴會議在座的500位投資顧問，接下來幾年資產價格上升的主要驅動因素就是央行的政策。Worah 說，“利率不僅決定債券價格，同時也是任何長期資產價格的支撐。”並補充，因此我們不應該看到價格回到70年代、80年代或者90年代的水平。“如果我們判斷正確的話，長期利率會維持低位，而這將有利於資產類別以及整個股市的估值。”他說。2007年之前，所有的央行一起加息或者同時降息。但現在，我們看到了不同：日本和美聯儲推出提高利率政策，而歐盟和英國卻將2016至2017年的利率水平維持在相似水平。
 
資產配置專家說，目前的債券市場估值已經達到了歷史上的高位，但沒有被高估。同時，如果利率維持低位的話，股市市盈率也會維持高位。

五年預期
PIMCO預計在未來的5年，隨著美聯儲在一兩年內開始加息，資金的名義年回報率會從0上升到2%左右。

PIMCO也看到了發達國家債券2%的回報率，同時也解釋了企業減持債券的原因（相對於別的長期資產配置）。就是說，債券仍然在那些可以抗擊股市波動投資組合中起到重要作用。在政府的債券市場中，PIMCO的投資組合尤其減少了對美國公債的持有，歐元區政府債券以及日本國債持有量不變，新興市場債券持有權重稍微加大。這樣的一個倉位是為了保護資產，以防止PIMCO對未來幾年內欠發達國家經濟衰退的錯誤判斷。

在全球的企業信用領域， PIMCO在整體上都非常重視。證券化債務持有的權重稍多。Worah說，企業喜歡那些受到美國房地產支撐的債券，因為美國房地產價格在接下來的一兩年內有望平均增幅6~8%。別的領域，PIMCO略減持了企業債券的投資類別，稍微增持了高收益債券以及最低限度地增加了對新興市場信用的重視度。

股市方面，接下來5年內投資公司的年增長率是4.5%。但值得註意的是，PIMCO減持了美國股票，增持歐洲，日本和中國股票。Worah 說，“一個月前，我們對股市保持防禦態度，整體上保持中立”。“盡管我們不喜歡剩下的新興市場，但我們就韓國股票建立了一個小倉位。”

一個平衡的投資組合包含60%的全球股票以及40%的發達國家債券，Worah說，期望未來五年內會達到3.5%的年平均回報率。

最後，Worah解釋了公司對房地產市場的觀點：“我們對商品及信託基金保持中立態度，看重與通脹聯繫的產品，稍微侧重於黃金。”PIMCO特別熱衷於與通貨膨脹聯繫密切的房地產市場——世界上的任何一個地方，除了英國。

“潛在的通貨膨脹有可能從大部分市場開始體現，”Worah說。“但任何一個國際性的投資者都應該明白英國與通脹聯繫的投資產品是世界上最昂貴的投資資產，2015剩下時間的零售物價指數（PPI）有可能在1.0-1.5%之間，長期可能升高至2.0 -2.5%。

PIMCO's 5-Year Forecast for Global Stocks and Bonds
With bonds expected to return around 2% and global equities returning 4.5%, the bond giant see a balanced portfolio achieving about 3.5% per annum for investors
 “There’s no recession on the horizon,” said bond giant PIMCO’s Mihir Worah at the recent Morningstar Investment Conference, referring to the developed economies and other major economies including India and China. The CIO of Asset Allocation and Real Return at PIMCO noted Russia and Brazil as exceptions, but confirmed that the fund house doesn’t expect anything more disappointing than a very low, muted recovery in the developed world over the next 12-18 months.
PIMCO forecasts GDP growth of 2.5% for each of the UK and the US, 1.5% for the EU and 6.5% for China in 2015 – “nothing to get excited about,” in Worah’s words, but a stable enough backdrop to identify specific investment opportunities.
The major drivers of asset prices over the next few years will be central bank policy, Worah told the conference audience of 500 financial advisers. “It’s not just bond prices that are dictated by interest rates, rates are also the backdrop for the pricing of any long-term assets,” Worah said, adding that we therefore shouldn’t expect to see valuations going back to the abnormal levels of the ‘70s, ‘80s or early ‘90s. “If we’re right that long term rates are likely to remain low, that supports valuations across asset class and across stock markets” he said.
Prior to 2007, all central banks converged – raising rates together, and dropping rates together. But now we’re seeing a divergence, with Japan and the US Fed pushing for policy that raises rates, while the EU and UK are set to keep rates flat for 2016 and into 2017, according to Worah.
Current bond market valuation levels appear elevated on a historical view, but not overvalued. Meanwhile, if interest rates stay low, the higher equity multiples will stay high too, the asset allocation expect said.
Five-year Expectations
Over the next five years, PIMCO expects cash to achieve a nominal annual return over the period of around 2%, rising from zero as the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates over the next two years.
For developed world bonds, PIMCO also sees a return of 2%, explaining why the firm’s view is for an underweight holding in the bond market relative to what would be considered a normal long-term allocation. That said, bonds still carry out rthe important role in investor portfolios of providing protection against equity market turbulence. Within the government bond market, PIMCO’s portfolios are notably underweight in US government notes, neutral on core Eurozone government debt, neutral also on Japanese debt, and very slightly overweight in emerging markets bonds. Such a position is designed to protect assets in the case that PIMCO’s theory of no developed-world recession in the next few years turns out to be misplaced.
Amongst corporate credit, PIMCO is overweight on global credit as a whole, with a slight overweight holding allocated to securitised debt. Worah said the firm likes bonds that are backed by real estate in the US as it believes home prices will rise by 6-8% on average across the nation over the next two years. Elsewhere, PIMCO is slightly underweight investment grade corporate bonds, slightly overweight high-yield bonds and very marginally overweight on emerging market credit.
Turning to equities, over the next five years the investment houses’ outlook is for annual growth of 4.5% but PIMCO is notable underweight on US equities, while overweight on European, Japanese and Chinese H shares. “A month ago we got defensive on equity markets and run a neutral position on equities as a whole,” Worah said, “but we’re building a small position in Korean equities, though we don’t like the rest of the emerging markets.”
For a balanced portfolio containing 60% in global equities and 40% in developed world bonds, Worah said the expectation was that average annual returns of 3.5% could be achieved over a five-year period.
Last but not least, Worah explained the firm’s real assets view: “We’re neutral on commodities, overweight on inflation-linked products, neutral on REITs and very marginally overweight on gold.” One real asset that PIMCO is particularly keen on is inflation-linked…everywhere in the world except the UK.
“Underlying inflation is likely to start rising across most markets,” Worah said, “but you must understand that for any international investor a UK inflation-linked investment is one of the most expensive assets in the world, with RPI likely to be 1.0-1.5% for the rest of 2015, rising to just 2.0-2.5% longer term.”

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/137799/pimcos-5-year-forecast-for-global-stocks-and-bonds.aspx