2015年下半年需要關註的三個領域

標準普爾500指數在2015年上半年基本上沒有變化，然而底層領域的背離說明了一個不同的問題。主要股指微薄的經濟回報是來自於敏感地區利率的弱化以及高收益領域的強勁增長動力。市場的激烈競爭在幾個重要的、值得關註的領域之間創造了一個相對股指差異。

領導者: 醫療衛生
醫療保健闆塊曾近一度被認為是市場的防守領域，它們非彈性的商業模式類似於日用必需品。畢竟，醫療服務以及藥品公司的運作沒有週期性負擔。然而，一些人認為由於生物技術在醫學領域的繁榮和持續發展，這些股票已經轉為增長導向型階段。

過去的3到5年間，健康護理指數基金（XLV）在醫療衛生領域的表現一直處於最佳水平，今年也仍是該領域的領軍者。毫無疑問，這種基金在6月30日顯示了巨大的活力以及波動性，漲幅達9.51%。雖然醫療領域一直是市場上最具有彈性的，但是面對近期的高點我也會猶豫是否追漲。如果你一直關註XLV或者別的健康護理基金，那麼你需要仔細觀察入場點，至少需要在小幅下滑後再買入。

此外，這個領域應該被視為領導型基金增長動能的基準。如果我們看到XLV基金開始淡出人們的視線，那麼這就可能說明投資者正在規避風險並保持防禦姿態。醫療保健股佔據美國摩根士丹利國際資本公司的基金動能系數的30%，折射出該領域的潛在控股性能特徵。

滞後者: 公共事業
在硬幣的另一面，公共事業由於今年的利率上升而受到拖累。由於缺乏2014年利率所帶來的推動作用，公共事業基金（XLU）在2015年上半年下降了10.70%。XLU的見頂價格幾乎與利率觸底處於同一時期 ，自此之後一直處於低位。目前來看，公共事業股票的價格似乎與美國國債收益的走勢密切相關。傳統的防禦性行業一直在規避增長型的衛生保健、消費品以及科技股。

從相對價值角度來看，我認為公共事業看起來似乎很有吸引力，因為利率將會保持穩定並在接下來6個月內會走低。最近的價格下跌也促進了XLU的3.80%的健康增長，這使得它稱為標準普爾500公司里收益率最高的領域。
收入型投資者應該註意到諸如DVY和FDL等多樣性收益基金都擁有大部分的公共事業股票。這種資產分配拖累了上半年的收益，但也應該註意到，這是基金以後收益的關鍵驅動。

中間者:金融類股
金融類股票一直被認為是抑制利率上升所產生影響的良方，然而金融行業的基金XLF從年初開始就一直表現低迷。XLF公佈2015年的前六個月的淨收益率為-0.61%，並且沒有顯示出拯救其聲譽的鼓舞性價格。XLF是一個有趣的基金，因為它是由大量的指定的以金融為中心的公司組成，包括大型銀行、不動產投資信託公司、券商甚至諸如伯克希爾哈撒韋(BRK-B)等多元化控股公司。

不動產投資信託公司當前是XLF基金的第三大產業集團，比重達14.20%，並且從年初開始一直影響基金的表現。隨著公共事業股票在2015年下降了5.5%，房地產基金（IYR）也經歷了相同的敏感利率的拖累。
相反，那些只關註於銀行股的指數比如KBE今年已經上漲了8.87%。很明顯，這些股票是真正的利率上升受益者，因為這是工業收益的主要驅動力。最終，XLF似乎也在經歷它內部的關於投資領域差別的分歧，這導致它在過去6個月內漫無目的地隨波逐流。

總結
上面的信息適用於綜合類指數以及個別領域投資。擁有多樣化股票、基金的投資者需要認識到潛在的資產配置以及與未來的風險回報有關的投資領域倉位。
那些傾向於選擇更有針對性基金的投資者可以選擇改變他們的倉位，並充分利用超買區域的特定市場環境優勢。隨著我們步入下半年，小幅的戰略性改變會對你的表現以及風險狀況產生很大的影響。

3 Sectors To Watch In The Second Half Of 2015
By David Fabian of FMD Capital Blog
Wednesday, July 1, 2015 9:47 PM EDT
The S&P 500 Index was nearly unchanged in the first half of 2015, yet the divergences in underlying sectors told a very different tale. The tepid return in the major averages was generated by weakening in interest rate sensitive areas and continued strength in high growth leadership categories. This tug-of-war style market has created a relative valuation chasm between several important sectors that warrants close attention.
Leader: Health Care
Health care stocks were once considered a defensive area of the market similar to consumer staples and utilities because of their inelastic business models. After all, medical services and drug companies operate with little cyclical burden to their bottom line. Nevertheless, some believe that these stocks have transitioned to a more growth-oriented phase that has been driven by the biotech boom and continued advancements in the medical field.
The Health Care Select Sector SDPR ETF (XLV) has been a top performing area of the market over the last 3 and 5-year time frames and continues to lead as the number one sector so far this year. There is no doubt that this ETF has shown tremendous momentum and activity has been robust as XLV has gained 9.51% through June 30.
While this area of the market has been one of the most resilient, I would be hesitant to chase performance and add near its recent highs. If XLV or a similar health care fund has been on your radar, I would be patient with respect to any future entry points and look to pick up shares on at least a modest dip.
In addition, this sector should serve as a benchmark of momentum leadership. If we see XLV start to fall out of favor, it may signal that investors are looking to pair back on risk and potentially rotate into a more defensive stance. Health care stocks currently make up over 30% of the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM), which screens its underlying holdings for recent performance characteristics.
Laggard: Utilities
On the flip side of the coin, utilities have been torched this year as a result of rising interest rates. Coming off a strong performance in 2014 where rising rates acted as a tailwind, the Utility Select Sector SPDR (XLU) is down 10.70% through the first half of 2015. The price of XLU peaked at virtually the same time as interest rates bottomed and has been on a steady course lower ever since.
For the moment, it appears that the fate of utility stocks is going to be closely tied to the price action of U.S. Treasury yields. This traditionally defensive sector has been eschewed for more growth-oriented positions in health care, consumer discretionary, and technology stocks.
From a relative value standpoint, I believe that utilities look attractive at these levels given the thesis that interest rates will remain stable or head lower over the next six months. The recent drop in price has also boosted the yield on XLU to a healthy 3.80%, which makes it the highest yielding sector in the S&P 500.
Income investors should note that diversified dividend funds such as the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) and First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund (FDL) have outsized utility sector exposure. This asset allocation acted as a drag on returns in the first half of the year and should be noted as a key driver moving forward as well.
Tweener: Financials
Financial stocks have long been touted as the cure to beat rising interest rates, yet the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) has been mired in a sideways malaise since the beginning of the year. XLF posted a net return of -0.61% through the first six months of 2015 and has failed to show inspiring price action to back up its reputation.
XLF is an interesting fund because of the wide designation of financial-centric companies. This ETF includes large banks, REITs, brokerages, and even diversified holding companies such as Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B).
REITs are currently the third largest industry group within XLF at 14.20% and have dragged on returns since the beginning of the year. The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) has experienced the same interest rate sensitive drag as utility stocks and is down 5.5% in 2015.
Conversely, indexes that focus solely on banking stocks such as the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) have gained 8.87% this year. Clearly these stocks are the true beneficiaries of the rising interest rate theme as it relates to a fundamental driver of industry returns.
Ultimately, XLF appears to be experiencing its own internal tug-of-war based on this bifurcation between sub-sectors that has caused it to drift aimlessly for the last six months.
The Bottom Line
The information presented above can be applicable to both broad-based indices and individual sector investing. Investors that own diversified equity ETFs need to be cognizant of the underlying asset allocation and sector positioning as it relates to future risk and returns.
Those that prefer to select more targeted ETFs may choose to shift their positions in order to take advantage of a specific theme or pair back on an overbought area of the market. Making small tactical changes of this nature can have a big impact on your performance and risk profile as we make our way into the second half of the year.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/3-sectors-to-watch-in-the-second-half-of-2015?post=68095