北京的困難已經演變為全球性。
Willie Pesek，彭博社，2015.7.15
新加坡是亞洲經濟的晴雨表。它高度開放、依賴於貿易的經濟通常會在經濟困難即將登上全球舞台時發出信號。目前，新加坡的經濟很明顯地給出警告信號。
這個國家第四季度國内生產總值(GDP)下降了4.6%，幾乎可以肯定是，這是由中國的經濟衰退引發的。新加坡的經濟困境可能標志著亞洲甚至是全球經濟的一個危險拐點。
2008年全球金融危機之後，中國9%以上的增長在西方平複金融創傷的背景下實現的。但隨著亞洲最大的經濟體逐漸降溫，從首爾到巴西利亞的官員發現他們沒有一個可靠的拉動經濟增長的引擎。美國和歐洲不均勻的經濟複蘇已經減緩了支撐大多數亞洲經濟體，包括日本的出口。中國現在的衰退可能會造成亞洲制造業的逆轉。
摩根士丹利的Ruchir Sharma 警告說，“下一個全球經濟衰退將由中國引起。”平衡數據，包括新加坡突然轉向衰退，表明中國不會接近今年7%的增長目標。
上海的日内交易者慶祝本週發佈的報告：中國六月份經濟增長2.1%；更有趣的數據是，中國的進口下降6.7%。這就解釋了新加坡制造業較前三個月驚人地下降了14%。新加坡輸出到中國的非石油產品同樣不容樂觀，二、四、五月份分別下降了22.7%、5.1%以及4.3%。
隨著新加坡的經濟自從2012年第三季度面臨最大收縮，它的政府需要迅速採取行動。這可能是另外一個令人驚喜的貨幣寬松政策（央行一月份施行了一次）。財政刺激也是必要的。
“全球前景仍具有挑戰性，將會遠不及預期”。美銀美林銀行的經濟學家Hak Bin Chua四月份之前如是說道。“中國的經濟放緩，希臘危機和週邊的東南亞國家包括印尼、泰國、馬來西亞等國家的增長疲弱可能會抑制全球的經濟增長”。
中國作為亞洲主要的客戶，它的經濟放緩將會很大範圍的凸顯。目前，該地區的許多投資者仍然看好北京促進GDP增長、拯救股市的努力。即使這些天來自中國的好消息也是令人擔憂的。6月信貸激增(3000億美元)，為自今年1月以來數量最大的月份。雖然這在短期内有助於經濟的穩定，但同時也助漲了上海和深圳的債務泡沫。
中國正面臨另一個問題:收益遞減。它的刺激措施規模、範圍和頻率自2008年全球危機以來呈指數增長。中國越是努力保持GDP高於5%的增速，它就會給全球金融體系帶來越大的風險。畢竟，中國的援助開始以超現實的方式重複。今年股票大漲是為了緩解七年來大舉借債的負面影響。現在，隨著北京給股票大跌駐底，它應該再次救助之前的救助對象。
北京現在的麻煩是世界上。2010年，它大約占全球經濟增長的23%。到2014年底,這一比例至少上升到38%。中國的消費對於大宗商品市場經濟增長的貢獻遠高於從印度尼西亞到南非等國家。Sharma告訴彭博社，“在未來的幾年中，中國可能是全球經濟的最脆弱之處。”
他補充說,中國可能將全球經濟增長下拉2%，這是許多人認為的世界經濟衰退臨界點。如果新加坡有任何經驗，它可能已經在實施過程中。
©2015彭博社觀點
China’s economic troubles are starting to spread
Beijing’s troubles are now the world’s.
Willie Pesek, Bloomberg | 15 July 2015 01:30
Singapore is the closest thing Asia has to an economic barometer. Its highly open, trade-reliant economy usually signals when trouble is approaching the global stage. And at the moment, Singapore is flashing clear warning signs.
The city-state’s gross domestic product plunged 4.6% last quarter, a downturn almost certainly triggered by China. Singapore’s plight may mark a dangerous inflection point not just for Asia, but for the entire global economy.
After the 2008 global crisis, China’s 9%-plus growth picked up the slack from a West licking its financial wounds. But as Asia’s biggest economy cools, officials from Seoul to Brasilia are finding themselves without a reliable growth engine. Uneven recoveries in the U.S. and Europe have already slowed the exports that power most Asian economies, including Japan. China’s downturn could now throw Asian manufacturing into reverse.
Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma warns that “the next global recession will be made by China.” The balance of data — including Singapore’s abrupt shift toward recession — suggests China isn’t growing anywhere near this year’s 7% target.
Shanghai’s day traders celebrated this week’s news that Chinese exports rose 2.1% in June. The more interesting figure, though, was the 6.7% decline in Chinese imports. That helps explain the stunning 14% drop in Singaporean manufacturing from the previous three months. The same goes for Singapore’s non-oil exports to China, which fell 4.3% in May, 5.1% in April and plunged 22.7% in February.
With Singapore’s economy contracting the most since the third quarter of 2012, its government has to act fast. It may be time for another surprise monetary easing (the central bank last engineered one in January). Fiscal stimulus may also be necessary.
“The global outlook remains challenging and far less positive than the picture” four months ago, says economist Hak Bin Chua of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “China’s slowdown, the Greece crisis and weaker growth in the immediate neighborhood of southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, will likely dampen growth.”
The downturn in China, Asia’s main customer, will loom especially large. For now, many investors in the region are still bullish about Beijing’s efforts to gin up both GDP and stocks. But even the good news on China these days is worrisome. Take its surge in credit growth in June ($300 billion), the most since January. While it’s helping to stabilize the economy in the short run, it’s also inflating China’s debt bubble in sync with its asset bubbles in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
China is facing another problem: diminishing returns. Its stimulus efforts have grown exponentially in size, scope and frequency since the 2008 global crisis. The more China strains to keep GDP growth above the 5% range, the more it’s putting the global financial system at risk. China’s bailouts, after all, are beginning to overlap in surreal ways. This year’s massive stock rally was meant to ease the fallout from a seven- year borrowing binge. Now, as Beijing puts a floor under plunging shares, it’s effectively bailing out its previous bailout.
Beijing’s troubles are now the world’s. In 2010, it accounted for roughly 23% of global growth. By the end of 2014, that share had surged to at least 38%. China punches even further above its weight in the commodity markets that countries from Indonesia to South Africa rely on for growth. “Over the next couple of years,” Sharma told Bloomberg News, “China is likely to be the biggest source of vulnerability for the global economy.”
China, he adds, could drag global growth below 2%, a threshold many would agree is equivalent to a world recession. If Singapore is any guide, it may already be under way.
©2015 Bloomberg View
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opinion/soapbox/chinas-economic-troubles-are-starting-to-spread/