黑石集團 2015年10月9日
一些市場觀察家曾猜測美聯儲將會在本月的會議中提高聯邦基金利率，然而中央銀行似乎在9月不想有任何行動。
美聯儲的再次延期不僅對美國經濟和市場有影響。我想這將導致歐洲央行和日本央行進行更多的刺激，最終對日本和歐洲的股票起到支持作用。
要了解事件為什麼會這樣，我們需要首先了解美聯儲利率上升和美元之間的關系。當美聯儲提高利率，以美元計價的資產例如美國債券通常會貶值，而收益率會上升。隨之，國内外投資者都會蜂擁向這些資產，增加美元的需求，導致美元更加強勢。
相比之下，在美聯儲9月會議之後，利率沒有發生變化，美元貶值，而國外貨幣貨幣相對美元升值。
這不是那些貨幣價值低的弱勢經濟體希望看到的事情。他們希望美元強勢幫助他們激活經濟。當他們的貨幣比美元弱勢，他們國家的貨幣就對國外客戶來說更便宜，促進出口和經濟增長。
因此如果美聯儲不採取行動，我們會發現其他中央銀行，包括日本央行和歐洲央行，採取自己的貨幣刺激手段以削弱他們的貨幣。
低息貸款和對股市的影響
可能發生的持續低息貸款將是日本和歐洲股票市場引人矚目的事件，而且在歐洲，大出口國德國將會尤為嚴重。當然，最終的貨幣政策和美元仍然有不確定性。根據美聯儲主席耶倫的最新評論，我認為美聯儲可能在年底加息。
但是無論什麼時間加息，美元的利率仍會在近期維持在較低的狀態。美聯儲已經聲明將會緩慢加息並維持低利率更長時間，因為它試圖在不破壞美國經濟的情況下使貨幣政策正常化。
日本和德國的市場基本面
這也就是說，即使將來央行貨幣政策震驚市場，日本和歐洲（尤其是德國）的股票在近期還是相對具有吸引力的。在我看來，由於這些市場的基本面狀況，這些市場的股票從今年夏天開始賣空的太多了。
What a Fed Delay Means for the ECB & BoJ
By Blackrock Author | October 09, 2015
While some market watchers have been speculating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the federal funds rate at its meeting this month, the central bank is more likely to do what it did in September: nothing.
The Fed’s continued delay has repercussions for more than just the U.S. economy and markets. I believe it’s also likely to lead to more stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ), which may ultimately support the case for stocks in Europe and Japan.
To understand why this is the case, here’s a little primer on the typical relationship between Fed rate increases and the dollar. When the Fed raises rates, the prices of dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasuries generally drop, while their yields correspondingly rise. In response, both foreign and domestic investors have tended to flock to these dollar-denominated assets, increasing demand for dollars, and leading to a stronger dollar.
In contrast, after the Fed’s September meeting, where the rate was left unchanged, the dollar dropped, and foreign currencies strengthened against the greenback, according to data accessible via Bloomberg.
This isn’t the scenario that economies with weaker currencies typically want. They want a stronger U.S. dollar to help fuel their economies. When their currencies are weaker than the dollar, their countries’ goods are less expensive for foreign customers, fueling exports and economic growth.
So, given a Fed on hold, we could see other central banks, including the ECB and BoJ, augmenting their own monetary stimulus measures in order to weaken their currencies.
Easy Money and the Impact on Equities
The likelihood of continued easy money is one of the reasons I see a compelling case for considering exposure to stocks in Japan and Europe, and within Europe, to large exporter Germany in particular. It’s true, of course, that the ultimate path of monetary policy—and the dollar—remain uncertain. Yet after recent comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, I see the Fed raising rates by year’s end.
But regardless of when liftoff occurs, rates are likely to remain low in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. The Fed has made it clear that it will raise rates slowly and keep them low for longer, as it tries to normalize monetary policy without damaging the U.S. economic recovery.
Market Fundamentals in Japan and Germany
That said, even if future central bank policy moves surprise the market, equities in Japan and Europe (and particularly in Germany) look attractively valued following recent market volatility. In my opinion, stocks in these regions have sold off too much since the start of the summer, given fundamentals in both markets.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：
http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/100915/what-fed-delay-means-ecb-boj.asp