在房價下跌的餘波中，美國消費者做了一件他們近年來從沒做過的事情：他們竟然減少了債務。2008年是債務最高峰，已經達到了11.5萬億美元，在此之後家庭債務（是房貸、房屋淨值貸款、車貸、信用卡債務的總和）在2013年第二季度已削減至100億美元，而減債到此為止。在過去的兩年裡，家庭債務又開始增加。但這是個好消息：債務增加有利於經濟複蘇。
車貸最早在2010年開始反彈，接下來信用卡在2011年開始反彈，最後是房貸，在2013年開始反彈。2015年年中，家庭債務已逼近105億美元。這不是簡單的債務增加問題，重點是誰的債務增加了。
為了回答這一問題，瑞士信貸的經濟學家James Sweeney，Zoltan Pozsar和Xiao Cui為美國借款人制作了一份表格。他們做的第一件事是把美國分成兩部分。第一部分是受到金融危機影響最大的五個氣泡區（加利福尼亞、内華達、亞利桑那、弗羅裡達和喬治亞州），另一部分是其餘45個州。接下來他們又將這兩部分進一步分解為一級借款人（信用評分659以上）及次級借款人。專家只考慮那四分之一的“信用良好者”，即非氣泡區的一級借款人。而其他的人都是“信用不佳者”。
雖然全國範圍内的債務皆有增加，但“信用良好者”的債務增加得更快，他們中新增的房貸、車貸以及信用卡債務比其他三組人群之和還要多。舉例來講，自2010年起，“信用良好者”的車貸增加了1500億美元，而“信用不佳者”的車貸只增加了1250億美元。信用卡債務增長分佈得比較均勻，“信用良好者”增加了350億美元，而“信用不佳者”增加了250億美元。房貸則大不相同，自2013年起，80%的房貸都是“信用良好者”貢獻的，總額約有2250億美元，而“信用不佳者”只有250億美元。
這種債務增長不均衡導致的結果是，非氣泡區的一級借款人貢獻了75.2%的家庭債務，而在2008年的債務高峰期只有68.4%。換句話說，大蕭條之後的嚴苛信貸標準提高了未償家庭貸款的質量。
在“信用不佳”的人群中，氣泡區的一級借款人貢獻了最多的車貸、房貸及信用卡債務。在次級借款人中，車貸和信用卡債務增速很快，房貸才剛剛起步，但這僅限於信用評分在620-660之間的高端次級借款人。
一級借款人的整體負債有所增加，而次級借款人則沒有。那是因為他們正疲於應對止贖問題，他們可能正被銀行起訴或是被收賬公司追債。瑞士信貸的經濟學家稱，只有在次級借款人償還完現有房貸之後，他們才有可能達到信用評分的最低借款標準。
這是借貸熱情的前奏，也是高消費的前奏。這也說明了只要就業增加，收入增加，零售業保持正常，消費活動就會逐漸恢複至正常水平。專家稱：“信貸的增加，尤其是低評分人群和曾經的房地產繁榮區的信貸的增加，是美國複蘇的重要標志。”在過去的兩年裡，美國的GDP波動頻繁，第一季度經濟明顯減速，而隨後又有大幅回升。但家庭債務和花銷的增加卻是美國經濟增長的有力標志。
US Debt Is Rising Again—But That’s a Good Thing
By: Hal Levey
Published: September 2, 2015
In the aftermath of the housing collapse, U.S. consumers did something they hadn’t done in years: they drastically reduced their debt loads. After peaking in 2008 at just over $11.5 trillion, household debt (the sum of mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, and credit card debt) was whittled down to under $10 trillion by the second quarter of 2013. But that, apparently, is when the deleveraging stopped. Over the past two years, household debt has once again been on the rise. But here’s the good news: that uptick bodes well for the economy.
Auto loans rebounded first in 2010, followed by credit cards in 2011, and, finally, mortgages in 2013. As of mid-2015, total U.S. household debt sat just under $10.5 trillion. But the encouraging news isn’t simply that borrowing is up.—it’s more about who, exactly, is doing the borrowing.
To answer that question, Credit Suisse economists James Sweeney,Zoltan Pozsar, and Xiao Cuirecently created a four-box matrix of U.S. borrowers. The first thing they did was split the country into two parts—on one side, the five bubble states that were hit hardest by the crisis (California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Georgia), and on the other, the 45 that weren’t. Then they separated those groups into two parts again: prime borrowers (credit scores above 659) and subprime borrowers. The bank’s economists consider only one of the four resulting categories to be “good credits”—prime borrowers in non-bubble states. Everyone else, including prime borrowers in bubble states, is “challenged.”
While debt has been rising across the board, it’s been rising faster among good credits, who have taken on more new mortgage, car, and credit card debt than the other three groups combined. Car loans to good credits have increased by more than $150 billion since 2010, for example, compared to an increase of about $125 billion for challenged credits. Growth in credit card debt is more evenly distributed, with an increase of $35 billion to good credits and $25 billion to challenged ones. But the difference in mortgages, which account for 80 percent of total household debt, is stark–good credits have taken on approximately $225 billion in new mortgage debt since 2013, compared to less than approximately $25 billion for challenged ones.
As a result of that lopsided recovery, prime borrowers in non-bubble states now hold 75.2 percent of household debt, compared to 68.4 percent when borrowing peaked in the third quarter of 2008. In other words, tighter credit standards in the wake of the Great Recession have succeeded in improving the overall credit quality of outstanding household loans.
Within the challenged credit group, prime borrowers in bubble states are taking on more auto loans, credit card debt, and mortgages. Among subprime borrowers, auto loans and credit card debt are growing quickly, but mortgage activity is just starting to rise—and only among borrowers at the higher end of the subprime spectrum, with credit scores between 620 and 660.
While prime borrowers have increased their overall debt balances, subprime borrowers have not. That’s because many consumers are still dealing with foreclosures, whether they’re being sued by lenders or hounded by collection agencies. Credit Suisse’s economists say subprime debt balances will only rise after those homeowners finally settle their outstanding mortgage debts and loans become more accessible to borrowers with the lowest credit scores.
What this renewed enthusiasm for borrowing foretells, of course, is higher consumer spending. It’s just one more indication – along with faster job creation, higher labor income, and healthy retail sales – that consumer activity is finally returning to normal in the United States after an achingly slow recovery. “The return of credit growth, especially for those with low credit scores or in former housing boom areas, marks an important threshold (for) the U.S. recovery,” say the bank’s economists. U.S. GDP figures have been volatile over the past two years, with marked slowdowns in the first quarter followed by stronger growth later in the year. But the clearly positive trends in U.S. household borrowing and spending are reliable indicators that more growth lies ahead.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/us-debt-is-rising-again-but-thats-a-good-thing/?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=the_financialist_main_newer_content&utm_content=44219057&utm_term=5384172