J.B. Maverick
當歐元初次登上世界金融舞台的時候，許多經濟學家看好它，認為它將成為全球下一個儲備貨幣。這種預測當時具有充分理由，因為當時結合起來的歐洲國家的經濟強度足夠挑戰美元全球儲備貨幣的地位。歐元很快變成全球第二重要的貨幣，但是2015年開始，它卻沒能取代美元的地位。其中原因包括流動性、歐盟的經濟穩定性、主權債務問題、2008年金融危機和人民幣的迅速崛起。
如何才能成為儲備貨幣
要成為首要儲備貨幣必須達到一些要求。首先該貨幣需要足夠重要和堅挺以用於國際貿易和金融交易。其次，它需要有一個投資者信任的大的經濟體和政府的支持。最後，該貨幣必須有相對穩定的匯兌價值，各國央行應持有大量的該貨幣。
流通性問題
歐元的總數量受到歐洲央行高利率政策和一些國家持續抵制歐洲央行資產標準和歐洲委員會監管的限制。簡而言之，像德國和英國這樣的主要歐盟成員國仍然不願意放棄主權金融控制。只要歐盟成員國不能完全接受歐元，那麼就會阻礙世界對歐元的信任。加上歐元區部分地區嚴重的通貨緊縮，從實用的角度來看，簡單的事實就是歐元作為主要貿易和金融交易貨幣在世界範圍内流通不夠充分。
歐盟的穩定性
第二個問題是歐盟整體經濟的穩定性。歐盟的主權債務危機還在持續。通貨緊縮和極低的經濟增長率使歐盟一些國家的債務和GDP增長率變得更加糟糕。該問題從情況最差的希臘延伸到最好的德國，德國是歐盟最強經濟體但是增長率持續下降。歐洲銀行體系處於嚴重壓力下，許多銀行面臨著資金不足的問題。
2008年金融危機和歐洲主權債務危機
從1999年推出到2008年金融危機，歐元兌美元持續上升，EUR/USD匯率直線上升接近1.60美元。但是2008年的金融危機幾乎在一夜間改變了這個形勢。在那之後歐元兌美元持續下跌，失去了接近三分之一的匯兌價值，到2015年，下降到1.10美元左右。大多數市場分析師預測歐元將會跌到與美元平價。
全球金融危機的嚴重程度實際上支撐了美元，維持美元的價值被視為避免全球經濟進一步垮台的重要環節。簡而言之，經濟不穩定和不確定被視為不是改變已經確定的儲備貨幣的好環境。為了遏制全球經濟的下跌，美國需要能夠賣出以萬億計的美國債務，如果美元失去了全球儲備貨幣的地位這就不會發生。
歐元的厄運又因歐洲主權債務而加劇。這次危機進一步暴露了歐盟作為一個經濟體的弱點，也進一步加大了例如德國這樣繁榮經濟體和西班牙和希臘這樣拖後腿的經濟體之間的仇視。歐元在德國進一步讨論退出歐元而重新使用德國馬克的時候當然不會被加強。
人民幣的崛起
絢麗的二十一世紀使中國經濟崛起，其規模已經超過美國成為世界最大的經濟體，這對歐元獲得儲備貨幣地位有負面影響。中國在國際經濟中日漸顯著的地位使其貨幣具備代替美元成為世界主要儲備貨幣的地位。人民幣在國際貿易中使用日漸增多並局部進入國際投資領域。中國正在迫使國際貨幣基金組織給予其特別提款權地位。
中國在世界範圍内建立了十幾個人民幣結算銀行。上海和香港股票市場的連接進一步促進了中國資本市場的發展。中國與許多主要貿易貨幣簽訂了匯兌協議，包括英格蘭銀行和加拿大銀行，這將削弱歐元和美元儲備貨幣地位。人民幣現在是第二常用金融交易貨幣，排在歐元之前。
而且中國和日本一樣，是世界上最大的外匯儲備持有國，因此其貨幣選擇將會對哪種貨幣成為儲備貨幣產生巨大影響。在不遠的將來，中國的將選擇自己的貨幣而不是美元或者歐元。
Why the Euro Failed to Become the World's Reserve Currency
By J.B. Maverick
When the euro debuted on the world financial stage, many economic analysts touted it, over-optimistically as it turns out, as the world's next reserve currency. The prediction was reasonable enough, based on the notion the combined financial strength of virtually the whole of western Europe might be a powerful enough economic force to topple the U.S. dollar from its position as the world's reserve currency. The euro fairly quickly became the second most important currency in the world, but as of 2015, it has failed to supplant the U.S. dollar at the top of the world's monetary heap. There are several reasons for this including liquidity, financial stability of the European Union, sovereign debt problems, the financial crisis of 2008 and the rapid rise to prominence of the Chinese yuan.
What Makes a Good Reserve Currency
For a currency to serve as a primary reserve currency, it must meet a number of requirements. It must first be a currency perceived as significant and solid enough to be utilized widely in international trade and financial transactions beyond its issuing country. Secondly, it has to be supported by a large economy and a government in which international investors have confidence. Finally, the currency must be considered to have a relatively stable exchange value, to the point central banks are comfortable accumulating and holding the currency in large amounts.
Liquidity Problems
The total quantity of euros in circulation is limited by the European Central Bank's (ECB) hard-money policies and by continuing resistance by some nations to ECB capital standards and financial oversight by the European Commission. In short, major European Union (EU) members such as the United Kingdom and Germany remain reluctant to surrender sovereign financial control to the ECB. As long as major member states of the EU stop short of fully embracing the euro, this hampers worldwide reliance on its currency. Add to that serious deflation in parts of the eurozone, and the simple fact is there is not a sufficient amount of euros in worldwide circulation for it to, purely from a practical point of view, be used as the world's main trading and financial transaction currency.
Stability of the European Union
Linked to the first problem described above is the second, that of the overall economic stability of the European Union. The EU's sovereign debt crisis lingers on. Deflation and very low economic growth rates contribute to steadily worsen the debt-to-GDP ratios of many EU nations. The trouble extends from the worst point, Greece, all the way to the best point, Germany, which remains the strongest EU economy but is nonetheless seeing a weakening economic growth rate. The European banking system remains under unrelenting pressure, with many banks still seriously undercapitalized.
The 2008 Financial Crisis and the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis
From its introduction in 1999 up until the 2008 financial crisis, the euro followed a steady upward trajectory in value against the U.S. dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate rising all the way up to just under $1.60. But the 2008 financial crisis wrecked the euro's rise versus the dollar in almost an instant. The euro has been in steady decline versus the dollar since then, losing approximately a third of its exchange value, which by 2015, had fallen all the way back down to just above $1.10. The majority of currency market analysts are projecting the euro's further decline to par value with the U.S. dollar, and some analysts are even predicting both the euro and the EU will eventually collapse and be dissolved.
The severity of the global financial crisis in effect propped up the U.S. dollar, as the importance of maintaining the dollar's value was seen as critical to avoiding a more severe worldwide financial meltdown. In short, massive economic instability and uncertainty were seen as decidedly not the proper environments for making a fundamental change in the world's established reserve currency. To stem the global financial free fall, the United States needed to be able to sell trillions of dollars worth of U.S. debt, and that could not have occurred if the U.S. dollar lost its preeminent position as the world's reserve currency.
The ill fortunes of the euro were then compounded by the European sovereign debt crisis, which some analysts refer to as the sovereign debt crisis of 2011-2012, and some characterize as ongoing. This crisis further exposed the weakness of the EU as an economy, and also increased animosity between the more prosperous EU members such as Germany and the countries such as Greece and Spain whose economies seem to be perpetual drag on the overall European economy. The euro is certainly not strengthened by growing talk within Germany of abandoning the EU and returning to the deutsche mark.
The Rise of China and the Yuan
The meteoric 21st-century rise of the Chinese economy, which has overtaken the U.S. as the world's largest economy, has had a negative effect on the euro attaining any more substantial presence as a reserve currency. China's increased prominence in the world's economy is being accompanied by a push for its currency to be the one that replaces the U.S. dollar as the world's major reserve currency. The yuan is increasingly used in international trade and sought in international investment. China is pressuring the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grant it the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) status accorded to recognized reserve currencies.
China has established more than a dozen yuan-clearing banks worldwide. Connections between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets have been fostered to stimulate further capital market development in China. China has signed currency-swap agreements with numerous central banks of its primary trading partners, including the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, thereby undercutting both the euro and the U.S. dollar as reserve currencies. The yuan is the second most-used currency in trade financing, ahead of the euro.
And China's cause is bolstered by the fact that it, along with Japan, is one of the world's largest holders of foreign exchange reserves, and therefore, its currency preferences have a major impact on what currencies can legitimately be considered reserve currencies. For the time being and presumably the foreseeable future, China's preference is for its own currency over the euro or the U.S. dollar.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100815/why-euro-failed-become-worlds-reserve-currency.asp