通脹對沖勢頭再起

過去幾年中，發達國家居民消費價格基本持平或略有下降，這使得“通貨膨脹”這個詞讀起來有些奇怪。美國居民消費價格自去年五月以來，已連續下降12個月，隨後基本保持平穩狀態，而日本全年的通貨膨脹則保持在1%以內。歐洲居民消費價格自2014年12月起，連續四個月下降，隨後保持平穩狀態。但瑞士信貸銀行指出，通貨膨脹的風險正在增加，增長速度如此之快，一些投資者甚至打算重新投資通脹相關的證券。 

美國通過兩組數據來計算通脹預期，其一為平準通貨膨脹率，另一為十年期國債收益及十年期通貨膨脹保值債券(TIPS)的差額，而通脹預期在七月至九月之間穩步下降，在九月底又迅速反彈。油價是導致通脹預期下跌的主要因素。四月油價穩定在60美元附近，而在七月開始下跌。同樣在七月，中國也對通脹預期產生了影響，因為中國股市崩盤使得中國經濟放緩加劇。

雖然十年期平準通貨膨脹率自9月29日的1.39%下降至10月7日的1.55%，瑞士信貸私人銀行和財富管理投資委員會卻認為該數據遠低於央行的通脹目標。此外，導致通脹減少的兩大因素已經開始發力。瑞士信貸能源分析家認為，2016年油價將趨於穩定甚至略有回升，而私人銀行及財富管理(PBWM)部門對中國抱有樂觀的看法。銀行分析家相信，政府降息、降低購房首付比例、減少機動車稅等激勵措施有助於平穩經濟。隨著經濟回暖，鋼鐵等金屬的需求也會增加，這將成為大宗商品價格的強心劑。

成熟市場的增長已趨於穩定並將長期保持，很有可能在2016年出現通脹回升的情況。歐洲和日本採取的量化寬鬆政策在本質上就有通貨膨脹傾向，而發達國家的中央銀行都希望實際的通脹水平與通脹目標之間的差距越小越好。在歐洲和日本，消費引領的經濟复蘇剛剛起步，而美國的消費性開支以足夠強大。持續增長的房價給有房的美國人帶來富足感，這使得收銀機刷刷地響個不停。瑞士信貸的經濟學家預測，美國2015年0.1%的年均通貨膨脹將在2016年上升到1.9%，歐洲將從0.1%上升到1.0%，英國將從0.1%上升到1.2%。不出意料，日本仍是個例外，其通脹率將從0.9%上升到1.0%。

隨著消費價格的不斷上漲，通脹相關的政府債券突然變得炙手可熱。顧名思義，通脹相關的債券與通貨膨脹指數債券的票面價值和名義價值有關，這使得債券在不斷地通脹中得以保值。另一方面，通貨緊縮會同時降低債券票面價值和名義價值。因此，在買賣債券時都有風險。

Time to Dust Off that Inflation Hedge

Given that consumer prices have either moved lower or essentially stayed put in the developed world for much of the past year, the word inflation does feel a little strange on the tongue. U.S. consumer prices declined through the 12 months ended in May and have pretty much flatlined since, while Japanese inflation has stayed under 1 percent all year. After falling for four consecutive months, starting in December 2014, European consumer prices have stayed where they are as well. But Credit Suisse believes inflation risks are growing – so much so that investors may want to revisit inflation-linked bonds.  

Inflation expectations in the U.S., as measured by the breakeven inflation rate, or the difference between the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), were on a steady downward course between early July and late September, but they have picked up again since. Oil prices played a major part in that decline. While they seemed to stabilize in the $60-range in April, they began falling again in July. China concerns began to weigh on inflation expectations the same month, as the country’s stock market crash threatened to exacerbate its ongoing economic slowdown.  

While the 10-year US breakeven rate has risen from 1.39 percent on September 29 to 1.55 percent on October 7, Credit Suisse’s Private Banking and Wealth Management’s Investment Committee believes these expectations are too modest compared to the central banks’ inflation targets. In addition, two major weights holding inflation down are starting to lift. Credit Suisse’s energy analysts expect oil prices to stabilize and even begin rising again in 2016, while the Private Banking & Wealth Management(PBWM)division has a relatively upbeat view on China. The bank’s analysts believe that the government’s stimulus measures – lower interest rates, property minimum down-payments, and reduced car taxes among them – will help the economy to stabilize. As it works its way back up to speed, demand for more steel and other metals should give commodity prices a shot in the arm.  

The developed markets, where growth has been steady and is expected to remain so, are particularly likely to see inflation pick up in 2016. The quantitative easing measures Europe and Japan have implemented are inherently inflationary, and central banks in the developed world have all made it clear that they hope to push actual inflation levels closer to their target rates.Consumer-led recoveriesin both Europe and Japan are on solid footing, while U.S., consumer spending has been strong. Rising home values are also making American households feel wealthier, which should help keep retail cash registers chiming. Credit Suisse’s economists predict that average annual inflation will rise from 0.1 percent in 2015 to 1.9 percent in 2016 in the U.S., from 0.1 percent to 1.0 percent in Europe, from 0.1 percent to 1.2 percent in the United Kingdom. As is often the case, Japan is an exception, with inflation expected to remain steadier at 0.9 percent this year and 1.0 percent next.  

With prices marching upward for a change, inflation-linked government bonds suddenly look like a more attractive investment than their nominal cousins.As the name implies, inflation-linked bonds link both the coupon and nominal value of the bond to an inflation index, which preserves value during times of rising inflation. On the other hand, deflation reduces both the coupon and nominal value of the bonds. Since that risk seems to be on its way out, bonds that hold their value in the face of rising prices are likely on their way in. 

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/time-to-dust-off-that-inflation-hedge/#sthash.AVPjUAYL.dpuf