Dan Moskowitz 2015年10月29日
你可能不認同以下觀點，但是它卻是根據純粹邏輯學建立的。邏輯通常都會在投資界取得勝利，尤其是當你對自己的倉位有信心而且不斷逢低買入時。
當前的經濟和投資環境非常獨特並呈現了一個巨大的機會，雖然機會是在做空上而不是做多上。這裡的風險是做空如果是錯誤的而且使用逆向交易所交易基金將會導致災難性的後果。如果你同意下列觀點，考慮1倍反向交易所交易基金。他們不那麼劇烈並給你一個做空市場的機會，至少能對沖你的多頭。
國内前景
你還記得2008年投資市場的災難嗎？你還記得2008年末和2009年股票持續下跌和我們的經濟通貨緊縮嗎？但是那不是終點。如果美聯儲沒有幹預那種趨勢將會繼續。
盡管市場崩盤的催化劑是次貸危機，但是早在一年之前發生了別的因素——嬰兒潮一代開始退休。那一代是歷史上最大的一代，也是歷史上消費支出最多的一代，從那時開始收入降低，導致消費支出的下降。這是通貨緊縮，美聯儲和這種現象鬥争了很多年。通過保持低利率，允許大額借貸輔助股票。
美聯儲沒有嘗試控制通貨膨脹。反之則是不斷通過人為手段對抗通貨緊縮制造通脹。這也是大宗商品在危機後短短幾年就飙升的原因。但是全球通貨緊縮的事實也讓大宗商品價格降回原來水平。美聯儲的政策開始在對抗經濟現實中失去作用。
全球前景
你可能註意到了上面全球那個詞。這是因為中國和日本，即第二大和第三大經濟體也在進入老齡化。對美國和中國來說幸運的是，人口和消費最終將會回升，但是日本則不會。但是讓我們把目光關註下未來幾年。
為什麼說中國和日本而不提已經進行寬松貨幣政策的歐元區？那是因為他們也在和通貨緊縮作鬥争。當美聯儲無能為力時，其他央行開始介入。但是現在這些行為影響的時間越來越短。幾年以後，一個央行削減利率將會產生持久的影響。現在這個影響持續幾週已經算好的了。這意味著我們正邁向流動性高峰。
大宗商品劇烈下跌是即將到來的通貨緊縮的一個預示，這證明了美聯儲的政策不再和過去一樣管用。美聯儲也因為利率上升而受困，再不久之後將會再次降低，這使美聯儲看起來非常愚蠢而且使經濟看起來一團糟。如果美聯儲不移動利率，那麼就證明以前所做的對經濟複蘇一點作用沒有。
美聯儲是一個巨大的因素，但是中國的影響更大。目前，它正在關註自己的經濟風暴。中國股票回暖可能需要幾週甚至幾個月。然而在那之後，中國將會再次對其貨幣進行貶值，這將導致美元走強和美國跨國公司銷量和利潤下降。當然，這對股市不是個好消息。
即使這一現象不會實現，美國經濟也不像看起來那樣強勁而且不可能在沒有美聯儲的幫助下自己崛起。諷刺的是失敗對經濟來說是最好的藥，因為能停止為子孫後代增加更多的債務讓經濟重新設置。雖然是痛苦的，但是必要的。
總結
央行的行為使許多人相信複蘇已經開始。事實是他們在人工推動複蘇，這會使將來處理這一情況更加複雜。央行們的通性處於頂點，中國經濟正處於風暴中，美聯儲受困，2016年很有可能成為熊市。
Will 2016 Bring a Bear Market?
By Dan Moskowitz | October 29, 2015
You might not agree with the following assessment, but it’s based on pure logic. Logic tends to win in the investment world, especially if you have total conviction in your positions and continue adding to them on dips, thereby playing to win and greatly increasing your return.
The current economic and investing environment is unique and presents significant opportunity, though that opportunity is on the short side, not the long side. The risk here is that shorting individual stocks can lead to disastrous results if you’re incorrect, and using inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can lead to extremely volatile rides. If you agree with the assessment below, consider 1x inverse ETFs. They are not as volatile yet still give you an opportunity to short the market, or at least hedge with your long positions.
Domestic Outlook
Do you remember the disastrous 2008 investing environment? Do you remember that stocks were continuing their descent and that our economy was deflationary in late 2008 and 2009? But that’s not the ultimate point. The ultimate point is that these trends would have continued if it hadn’t been for Federal Reserve intervention.
Despite subprime being the catalyst for the market crash, something else happened one year earlier in 2007 – Baby Boomers began retiring. The largest generation in history, as well as the largest spending generation in history, was now beginning to see lower incomes, which would lead to a decline in consumer spending. This is deflationary, and it’s what the Federal Reserve has been fighting against for years. By keeping interest rates at record lows, this has allowed for excessive borrowing, which has aided stocks.
The Federal Reserve hasn't been trying to keep inflation in check. It has been trying to fight against deflation by artificially creating inflation. This is why commodities soared in the few years following the financial crisis. But the reality of global deflation is also why commodities have come back down. Federal Reserve policies are beginning to lose the battle against economic reality.
Global Outlook
You might have noticed the word global above. That’s because China and Japan, the second- and third-largest economies in the world, are also aging. Fortunately for China and the U.S., population and consumer spending should eventually rebound, but that’s not the case in Japan. But let’s focus on the next several years.
Why do you think China and Japan – not to mention the Eurozone – have been implementing such accommodative monetary policies? It’s because they’re also fighting against deflation. When the Federal Reserve ran out of steam, other central banks stepped in. But now the effects of those actions are becoming shorter and shorter lived. Several years ago, a central bank cutting interest rates would have a lasting impact. Now that impact is a few weeks at best. This means we’re heading for peak liquidity – an environment where central banks around the world are running out of ammunition.
This was said about the Federal Reserve for a several years, but the commodities plunge is an indicator of approaching deflation, and it proves that Federal Reserve policies don’t hold as much weight as in the past. The Federal Reserve is also trapped because if it raises rates, it will soon after lower them again, making the Federal Reserve look inept and the economy appear as though it’s in shambles. If the Federal Reserve doesn’t move, then it’s proof that what’s really taking place in the economy has nothing to do with a recovery.
The Federal Reserve is a big factor, but China is even bigger. Currently, it’s in the eye of its economic storm. There could be a few weeks, perhaps even a few months, of Chinese equities holding their own. However, when that comes to an end, China will continue to devalue its currency, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar and lead to lower sales and profits for most U.S. multinationals. This, of course, will be bad news for stocks.
Even if this cycle weren’t to come to fruition, there is still no doubt that the U.S. economy is not as strong as advertised and that it could not stand on its own two feet without Federal Reserve support. The irony is that failure would be the best medicine since it would put a halt to adding excessive debts for future generations and allow the economy to reset. It would be painful, but necessary.
The Bottom Line
Central bank actions have led to many believing there has been a recovery. The truth is that they have driven an artificial recovery that will make dealing with this situation only more difficult in the near future. With central banks now nearing peak liquidity, China’s economy in the eye of the storm, and the Federal Reserve being trapped, the bear market is most likely to arrive at some point in 2016.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102915/will-2016-bring-bear-market.asp