美國第三季度的GDP年化增長率僅為1.5%，數據並不樂觀，不僅低於預期的1.6%，還遠低於第二季度的3.9%。但反觀GDP增長的各種因素，都顯示出樂觀的迹象：在最近幾個季度中，消費支出最大的GDP貢獻者，而美國消費者的支出足以彌補停滞的出口和低迷的商業投資。
第三季度消費支出的年化增長率為3.2%，雖略遜於第二季度的3.6%，但仍高於經濟蕭條後期2%的平均水平。我們將1.5%的增長率逐一分解，企業庫存增加和淨出口都給GDP增長拖了後腿。雖然政府支出和企業、個人投資做出了些許貢獻，但最大的GDP貢獻者還是商品和服務的消費支出。
瑞士信貸分析，推動消費增長的四個因素表明，低收入家庭開始真正享受到經濟複蘇帶來的好處了。受房地產泡沫沖擊極大的就業率開始逐漸恢複。
現在各州的消費支出數據暫時查不到，所以還無法證實就業率回升是否刺激了“泡沫州”的消費支出。但各種間接的數據表明，答案是肯定的。泡沫州的消費者對信用卡的使用量有所增加，因此負債也隨之增加。除了次級借款人的債務增加，無論是否遭受金融危機沖擊，各州的借款人無論信譽是否優良，其債務皆有增加。
去年油價下跌，低收入家庭或多或少從中獲益。對於60%的低收入人群來說，汽油占據了稅後不可控支出的7.1%，而對其餘40%的人群來說，汽油僅占3.7%。總的來說，去年油價下跌為美國消費者節省了1%的可消費支出。有證據表明，消費者願意把這1%的“不義之財”花掉，而不是存起來。因為自今年初，銀行利率大幅下降，而從2014年初油價下跌開始，餐廳支出大幅增加。
而油價下跌不是刺激低收入人群消費的唯一因素。高收入人群也起到了一定的推動作用。自2003年起，收入最低的10%的美國家庭的週薪增長了2.6%，是2009年至2012年間平均水平0.9的兩倍還多。零售和休閑領域的工人工資最低，所以不得不加班工作以賺取更多的工資。這兩個行業提供了3000萬個工作崗位，占私人雇佣的四分之一。
瑞士信貸認為，如此大範圍的複蘇都要歸功於非必需品的消費，如服裝、日用品、玩具等。低收入家庭的非必需品消費占收入的比例要高於高收入家庭。而隨著經濟的複蘇，他們願意在“雜項”上花更多的錢。這對經濟來說是個好迹象，因為這類支出的增加會持續一段時間。
瑞士信貸專家稱，易耗品消費將保持“長期、緩慢”的增長。雖然美聯儲的加息計劃會抑制消費者借錢買東西的熱情，但瑞士信貸相信，可支配的個人開支將繼續推動消費支出的增長。
US Consumers Are on a Shopping Spree
Real GDP growth in the U.S. wasn’t particularly impressive in the third quarter –the 1.5 percent annualized increase came in just shy of the 1.6 percent consensus forecast and way down from the 3.9 percent reading in the second quarter. A look at the components of GDP growth, however, reveals a very positive signal for the future: Consumer spending has been the biggest contributor to GDP in recent quarters, and American consumers are spending enough to make up for stagnating exports and decelerating business investment.
Consumer spending rose at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter, down from 3.6 percent in the second quarter, but still quite strong compared to the post-recession average of 2 percent. Breaking down the overall 1.5 percent increase, businesses adding to inventories and net exports were both a drag on GDP growth. Government spending and investment by both businesses and individuals made a modest positive contribution, but the biggest boost by far came from consumer spending on goods and services.
The four major factors that Credit Suisse believes are driving consumption higher suggest that lower-income households are finally starting to feel the benefits of a recovery that technically began in 2009. For one thing, employment levels in the states hit hardest by the bursting of the housing bubble are starting to recover. The employment gap between the 20 percent of states that suffered the biggest drop in housing net worth during the crisis and the 20 percent with the smallest decline is narrowing.
Current state-by-state consumer spending figures aren’t available. So it’s impossible to know whether the employment recovery is feeding through into higher spending in what Credit Suisse calls “bubble states.” But indirect measures suggest that it is. Consumers in bubble states are starting to charge more on their credit cards and take out more auto loans. Rising debt levels among subprime borrowers in bubble states are part of a larger trend in which households of all kinds – those with good credit and bad, those in states pummeled by the financial crisis and those in states that remained relatively untouched – have been taking on more household debt. The long-running household deleveraging that began in the wake of the financial crisis started to reverse course in late 2013 and that turnaround is now filtering down to borrowers with less than sterling credit. That directly encourages consumer spending.
Lower-income households have also enjoyed disproportionate relief from the decline in oil prices over the past year. For the lowest-earning 60 percent of households, gasoline made up 7.1 percent of non-discretionary spending after tax, compared to 3.7 percent for the top 40 percent. In aggregate, low gas prices have saved American consumers the equivalent of 1 percent of their total disposable income over the past year. The evidence suggests that consumers are spending that windfall, rather than saving it: Household savings rates have declined dramatically since the beginning of this year, and restaurant spending has soared since oil prices first started to decline in 2014.
Falling gas prices aren’t the only factors encouraging – or, perhaps, allowing – lower-income Americans to spend. Higher income is playing a part, too. The lowest-earning 10 percent of American households have seen weekly earnings grow 2.6 percent a year since 2013, more than double the 0.9 percent annual growth rate between 2009 and 2012. Workers in the two lowest-paid sectors, retail and leisure and hospitality, are working more hours and benefitting from steady growth in payroll income. Those two sectors account for more than 30 million jobs, or one-fourth of private employment.
Credit Suisse believes that this broader recovery is directly responsible for the steady uptick in spending on discretionary items such as clothing, household products, and toys. Lower-income households spend a higher proportion of their income on discretionary goods than wealthier households do, and as their fortunes recover, they seem to be able to spend more on “extras.” That’s a very good sign for the economy, as these kinds of spending recoveries tend to last for a while. Credit Suisse says trends in spending on services and non-durable goods tend to come in “long, slow waves.” Even with the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates this year, which could put a damper on consumers’ enthusiasm for buying things they usually borrow money for, such as cars or large appliances, Credit Suisse forecasts discretionary spending will continue to support the strong consumer spending trend.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/us-consumers-are-on-a-shopping-spree/#sthash.wVCfIXBy.dpuf